A sensitivity analysis of the Janus(A) combat simulation that supports the use of Janus(A) in army training.

108 Pages·1.3 MB·en_US

by  Feil, Michael W.;Barr, Donald Roy.;Dryer, David A.

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NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
Monterey, California
THESIS
A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OFTHE JANUS(A)
COMBAT SIMULATION THAT SUPPORTS
THE USE OFJANUS(A) IN ARMY TRAINING
by
Michael W.Feil
June, 1991
Thesis Advisor: Donald R. Barr
Co-Advisor David A. Dryer
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
T
256372
i

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11.TITLE (IncludeSecurityClassification)
ASensitivityAnalysisoftheJanuslA)CombatSimulationthatSupportstheUseofJanus(A)inArmyTraining
12 PERSONALAUTHOR(S) Feil,MichaelWilliam
13a TYPEOFREPORT 13b TIMECOVERED 14 DATEOF REPORT(year,month,day) 15 PAGECOUNT
Master'sThesis From To 1991,June 99
16 SUPPlEMENTARYNOTATION
TheviewsexpressedinthisthesisarethoseoftheauthoranddonotreflecttheofficialpolicyorpositionoftheDepartmentofDefenseortheU.S.
Government.
17 COSATICODES 18 SUBJECTTERMS(continueonreverseifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber)
FIELD GROUP SUBGROUP NationalTrainingCenter,Janus(A)CombatSimulation,TrainingwithJanuslA)
19 ABSTRACT(continueonreverseifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber)
Thisthesisrecordsthemethod,results,andrecommendationsstemmingfromasensitivityanalysisperformedontheoutputoftheJanuslA>
combatsimulation. TheanalysiswasbasedonapreviousNationalTrainingCenter(NTC) force-on-force(MILESinstrumented)battlethatwas
qualifiedasaJanuslA(scenariobyTRAC-Monterey. Themethodinvolved fourmodificationstothequalifiedscenarioandtheuseofafactrorial
experimentaldesign. Thefactorialdesignwasusedtodeterminethepresenceofrelationshipsbetweenthelevelsoffourmaineffects(battle
parameters)andtworesponsevariables(MeasuresOfPerformance). ThethesisconcludedthatJanuslA(outputcandemonstrateastatistically
significantsensitivity, andthatJanuslA(sensitivityisafunctionofthechosenresponsevariableandthelevelsofeachmaineffect. Interactions
amongthreeofthefourbattleparameterswerealsostatisticallysignificant. Itisrecommendedthatexaminationofsensitivityanalysesof
JanuslA)becontinuedandapost-NTCrotationtrainingplansimilartotheonedescribedinthethesisbepursued.
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22a NAME OF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL 22b TELEPHONE (IncludeAreacode) 22c OFFICESYMBOL
Donald K.Barr [phone] MA/Ba
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
A Sensitivity Analysis of the Janus(A) Combat Simulation
that Supports the Use ofJanus(A) in
Army Training
by
Michael W. Feil
Captain, United States Army
B.S., United States Military Academy, 1981
Submitted in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH
from the
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
June 1991 ^
ABSTRACT
This thesis records the method, results, and recommendations stemming from
a sensitivityanalysis performed on the output ofthe Janus(A) combat simulation. The
analysis was based on a previous National Training Center (NTC) force-on-force
(MILES instrumented) battle that was qualified as a Janus(A) scenario by TRAC-
Monterey. The method involved four modifications to the qualified scenario and the
use ofa factorial experimental design. The factorial designwas used to determine the
presence of relationships between the levels of four main effects (battle parameters)
and two response variables (Measures Of Performance). The thesis concluded that
Janus(A) output can demonstrate a statistically significant sensitivity, and that
Janus(A) sensitivityis afunction ofthe chosen responsevariable and the levels ofeach
main effect. Interactions among three of the four battle parameters were also
statistically significant. It is recommended that examination of sensitivity analyses
ofJanus(A) be continued and a post-NTC rotation training similar to the one described
in the thesis be pursued.
in
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
I. 1
A. PURPOSE 1
B. SCOPE 1
II BACKGROUND 3
...
A. DESCRIPTION OF THE JANUS (A) COMBAT MODEL 3
1. General 3
...
2. Simulation of Terrain and Environment 3
3. Simulation of Combat Systems 4
4. Simulation of Direct Fire Events 5
5. Post Processing Data 6
a. Standard Post-Processing Files 6
...
b. Specialized Post-Processing Files 7
B. DESCRIPTION OF THE NATIONAL TRAINING CENTER
(NTC) 7
1. Mission 7
2. Terrain 8
3. Typical Training 8
4. Battle Monitoring System 9
5. Simulation of Direct Fire Events 9
6. Post-NTC Training Material 10
C. TECHNICAL REPORT: COMPARISON OF THE JANUS (A)
IV