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A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL STREET A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL STREET The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing BURTON G. MALKIEL W. W. NORTON & COMPANY New York • London Copyright © 2011, 2007, 2003, 1999, 1996, 1990, 1985, 1981, 1975, 1973 by W. W. Norton & Company, Inc. The article on page 324 entitled “Red Faces in Park” appears courtesy of Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world. © Thomson Reuters 2009. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook, which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. All rights reserved For information about permission to reproduce selections from this book, write to Permissions, W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10110 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Malkiel, Burton Gordon. A random walk down Wall Street: the time-tested strategy for successful investing / Burton G. Malkiel. p. cm. Rev. ed. ISBN: 978-0-393-08169-5 1. Investments. 2. Stocks. 3. Random walks (Mathematics) I. Title. HG4521.M284 2011 332.601’519282—dc22 2010041866 W. W. Norton & Company, Inc. 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110 www.wwnorton.com W. W. Norton & Company Ltd. Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT TO NANCY AND SKIPPER CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgments from Earlier Editions Part One STOCKS AND THEIR VALUE 1. FIRM FOUNDATIONS AND CASTLES IN THE AIR What Is a Random Walk? Investing as a Way of Life Today Investing in Theory The Firm-Foundation Theory The Castle-in-the-Air Theory How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted 2. THE MADNESS OF CROWDS The Tulip-Bulb Craze The South Sea Bubble Wall Street Lays an Egg An Afterword 3. SPECULATIVE BUBBLES FROM THE SIXTIES INTO THE NINETIES The Sanity of Institutions The Soaring Sixties The New “New Era”: The Growth-Stock/New-Issue Craze Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom Performance Comes to the Market: The Bubble in Concept Stocks The Nifty Fifty The Roaring Eighties The Return of New Issues Concepts Conquer Again: The Biotechnology Bubble ZZZZ Best Bubble of All What Does It All Mean? The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks 4. THE EXPLOSIVE BUBBLES OF THE EARLY 2000S The Internet Bubble A Broad-Scale High-Tech Bubble Yet Another New-Issue Craze TheGlobe.com Security Analysts $peak Up New Valuation Metrics The Writes of the Media Fraud Slithers In and Strangles the Market Should We Have Known the Dangers? The U.S. Housing Bubble and Crash of the Early 2000s The New System of Banking Looser Lending Standards The Housing Bubble Bubbles and Economic Activity Does This Mean That Markets Are Inefficient? Part Two HOW THE PROS PLAY THE BIGGEST GAME IN TOWN 5. TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Technical versus Fundamental Analysis What Can Charts Tell You? The Rationale for the Charting Method Why Might Charting Fail to Work? From Chartist to Technician The Technique of Fundamental Analysis Three Important Caveats Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work? Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together 6. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND THE RANDOM-WALK THEORY Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts Is There Momentum in the Stock Market? Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk? Some More Elaborate Technical Systems The Filter System The Dow Theory The Relative-Strength System Price-Volume Systems Reading Chart Patterns Randomness Is Hard to Accept A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money The Hemline Indicator The Super Bowl Indicator The Odd-Lot Theory A Few More Systems Technical Market Gurus Why Are Technicians Still Hired? Appraising the Counterattack Implications for Investors 7. HOW GOOD IS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS?

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A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Completely Revised and Updated) PDF

386 Pages·2011·4.89 MB·English
by  Burton G. Malkiel
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