A model of Austrian economics

104 Pages·2015·2.565 MB·English

by  Hendrik Hagedorn (auth.)

A model of Austrian economics
Hendrik Hagedorn
A model of Austrian
economics
Hendrik Hagedorn
Münster, Germany
Dissertation, Universität Münster, 2013
D6
ISBN 978-3-658-07076-2 ISBN 978-3-658-07077-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-658-07077-9
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IwouldliketothankProf.HansHermannLechner,Prof.UlrichvanSuntum,Dr.StefanKooths,
Dr.PascalSeppecher, theLudwig-von-Mises Institute,andmyentirefamily.Thisworkwould
nothavebeenpossiblewithouttheirguidanceandsupport.Moreover,IthankAdamLedererand
AlexanderMaltforproofreadingthemanuscriptandHellaSteinkeforimprovingitslayout.
Berlin,April9,2014
HendrikHagedorn
Contents
1 Introduction.................................................. 1
2 Thesetupofthemodel......................................... 5
2.1 Amonetarymarketeconomy................................ 5
2.2 Physicalcapital ........................................... 9
2.3 Thefinancialsystem ....................................... 12
2.3.1 Accounting ........................................ 12
2.3.2 Firmcreation,equityrequirements,bankruptcy .......... 15
2.4 Timeperiods ............................................. 18
2.5 Nationalaccounting ....................................... 20
3 Householdbehavior ........................................... 23
3.1 Purchasesandmoneydemand ............................... 23
3.2 Pre-incomepreferencesandappraisement ..................... 27
4 Firmbehavior ................................................ 31
4.1 Schedulesforproductionandoffers .......................... 32
4.2 Thesalesstrategy ......................................... 33
4.3 Liquiditymanagement ..................................... 36
4.4 Productionmanagement .................................... 39
4.5 Theinvestmentrationale.................................... 40
4.5.1 Operations......................................... 40
4.5.2 Fixedcapital ....................................... 42
5 Bankbehavior ................................................ 43
5.1 Liquiditymanagement ..................................... 43
VIII Contents
5.2 Commercialbanking....................................... 44
6 Thefunctioningofthemodel ................................... 49
6.1 Competitionandsteadystates ............................... 49
6.2 Thesystemicview......................................... 52
6.3 Preferencechanges ........................................ 56
7 Results....................................................... 61
7.1 Generalresults............................................ 63
7.2 Achangeinrelativepreferences ............................. 63
7.3 Changesintimepreferences ................................ 72
8 Considerationsaboutinterestrates.............................. 81
9 Furtheraspects ............................................... 87
9.1 Thecharacterofthismodel ................................. 87
9.2 Uncertaintyandspontaneousorder ........................... 91
9.3 Onpreferences............................................ 93
A ListofSymbols ............................................... 97
References........................................................101
Chapter 1
Introduction
AlthoughAustrianeconomicshasmanyferventfollowers,its relativepopularity
withinthescienceofeconomicsislimited.Neoclassicaleconomics,withitsDSGE
modeling,1isfarmorevisibletonotjustthegeneralpublicbutalsoamongstthose
educatingfutureeconomists.Thissinglefocushasnotgonewithoutdebateandthe
discussionwasrenewedafterthemostrecentfinancialcrisis(Hicks,1981;Solow,
2008; Caballero, 2010). Without doubt, limiting economic research to only one
methodologicalstandardpreventsthescientificcommunityfromincorporatingthe
insightsofthosefieldsofeconomicsthathavedevelopedindependentofthisstan-
dard(Caballero,2010).Therefore,someofthemainthemesthatwereelaborated
byAustrianscholars,suchasthetheoryofcapital,thetheoryofentrepreneurship,
and the theory of the money-drivenbusiness cycle, have not or only to a small
extentbeaccommodatedbyneoclassicaleconomics.
What inhibits mainstream economists from adopting these theories is, on the
one hand, the absence of a general modeling approach for Austrian economics
and,ontheotherhand,thattheneoclassicalapproachisfundamentallyunsuitedto
capturetheseinsights.Asdemonstratedby Mirowski(1989),theconceptofgen-
eral equilibriumis not at all a natural approachto economic thinking. Rather is
the equilibriumapproachan attempt to transcribe the metaphorsof 19th century
physicstoeconomicphenomena.However,inordertoobtainsuchatranscription
it is necessaryto makecompromisesbetweenmathematicaltractabilityandeco-
nomic realism. And hence the equilibriumperspectiveeasily becomes distorted.
The “law of one price” is a case in point: it provides equilibrium models with
thesymmetrythatisnecessarytoemulateaconservationprincipleofthephysical
1 DSGEisanabbreviationfordynamicstochasticgeneralequilibrium.DSGEmodelsarealso
used innew-Keynesian economics, butthe termneoclassical ishere used as tocomprise both
strandsofliterature.
H. Hagedorn, A model of Austrian economics, DOI 10.1007/978-3-658-07077-9_1,
© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2015
2 1 Introduction
sciences,butitisforeigntoalleconomicprocesses.Infact,itispricedispersion
and not price unity which allows markets to developtheir coordinatingfunction
(Gintis,2007).
Onasimilarnote,thecompliancewiththegeneralequilibriumframeworkled
economiststomakewidespreaduseoftherationalexpectationsframework,whose
flawshavelongbeenexposed(e.g.Davidson,1983).Again,thesymmetrybetween
futurestatesoftheworldandtheexpectationthereofdoesnotrepresenteconomic
insight,butisonlypostulatedoutofmathematicalnecessity.Thedilemmaofmod-
ernmacroeconomicscanthusbeframedasfollows:Theneedformathematically
tractablemodelshasledtoageneralacceptanceofpremisesthatarehighlyunre-
alisticatbestandhaveoftenprovokedaseriousdealofconfusion.
Thisworkprovidesapossiblesolutiontothisdilemma.Itdoessobydeveloping
a model that synthesizes elements of post-Keynesianeconomicsand complexity
economicswiththecentraltenetsofAustrianeconomicstherebyportrayingAus-
trianeconomicsinaformalandcoherentway.Themodelthatisthusestablished
is just as general as a DSGE model, but it is by all means more realistic and it
treats macroeconomicsfrom an entirely differentperspective. At the same time,
theproposedmodelprovidesa mathematicallyrigidframeworkunderwhichthe
propositionsoftheAustrianschoolcanbescrutinized.
ThecenterpieceoftheAustrianschoolisthestudyoftheformalimplications
ofhumanaction,adisciplinethatAustrianscallpraxeology(Mises,[1949]2008,
pp.1). Economics, according to this research paradigm, is only a subdiscipline
ofpraxeology.Thismethodologicalperspectivehasmanyconsequences.First,in
Austrianeconomics,valuationnotonlyoriginatesfromthehumanmindaloneand
isthereforesubjective,butalsoarevaluationsonlyexpressedthroughaction.On
theotherhand,thethingsthathumanbeingsvalueareinherentlyheterogeneous.
Thus, in essence, Austrian economics describes the world on the basis of a dy-
namictheoryofsubjectivevalueandatheoryofheterogeneouscapital.Second,in
Austrianeconomicsall economicagentsare treated as true economicactors and
notasmerereactorstotheirenvironment,asischaracteristicfortheneoclassical
school.TheAustrianperspectivethusimpliesthatalleconomicanalysisisbased
ontheprincipleofcauseandeffect,which,asacorollary,impliesthepassageof
time.Austrianeconomicsthereforedepictstheeconomyasaprocess,asopposed
tothestaticinterdependencyofneoclassicaleconomics.
Furthermore, what distinguishes Austrian economics from other schools of
thoughtisitspurelytheoreticandessentialistcharacter.Sinceonlytheformalim-
plicationsofthefactthathumanbeingsactaredescribed,Austrianeconomicsis
notconcernedwith thespecific choicesmadebyindividualsorwith thecircum-
stancesunderwhichsuchchoicesarise.AccordingtotheAustrianunderstanding
suchinquirybelongstodifferentfieldsofscience,namelypsychologyandhistory.
1 Introduction 3
Austrianeconomicsconfinesitselftostatementsthataretrueforallactionsmade
byhumanbeings.Thesestatementsaretrueapriorilikethestatementsofmath-
ematics and logic and they are not subject to verification or falsification on the
groundofexperienceandfacts(Mises,[1949]2008,pp.32).Forinstance,thelaw
ofdiminishingmarginalutilityislogicallyimpliedintheconceptofaction(Mises,
[1949]2008,pp.119).AlmostnothinginAustrianeconomicsisassumed.Onlyba-
sicpremiseslike,e.g.,capitalbeingheterogeneousaretakenasself-evidentlytrue
andarethustakenforgranted(Rothbard,1957).Hence,thisapproachassumesal-
mostuniversalvalidity.Themechanismsunderlyingtheproposedmodelarefirmly
rooted in this causal-realist and non-positivistic world view. This serves as the
model’sepistemologicalfoundation.Also,Austrianeconomicsishereunderstood
inthisnarrowsense.MuchofwhatrunsundertheheadingofAustrianeconomics
todayisnotdirectlyimpliedbythelogicofaction,butratherbyalogicofchoice
and equilibrium-likeconcepts (Gloria-Palermo, 1999). However,the idea of this
model is to emphasize the essentialist character of the Austrian approachand to
describe economic insights based on processes that are driven by human action
alone.
The concrete modeling approach taken in the following is agent-based and
accounting-based.Thatis,alleconomicactivityinthemodelresultsfromthede-
centralizedactions of agents. These agents exchangegoodsand services against
money on virtual markets and each of them has a balance sheet that reflects his
financial and economic situation. Implicitly, the agents serve as an interface be-
tween two economicdomains.On the one hand,they pursue certainpre-defined
goalsandthusrepresentbehavioralaspectsofthemodelwhile,ontheotherhand,
theyapplystandardaccountingrulesinordertokeeptrackoftheireconomicsitua-
tionandthusembodyacalculativeelementwithinthemodel.Onthebasisofthese
calculationsanyresultthatthemodelproducescanbeexaminedviaitseffecton
the system of national accounts. Moreover,the application of an economy-wide
accountingscheme means that all markets in which the agents interact are fully
interdependent.Yet,thisinterdependencyisnotachievedbyimposingsynchronic-
ity,as theequationsofmotionthatgovernDSGEmodelsdo,butratheremerges
fromwithin.
The agent-based character of this model thus makes it possible to conduct
macroeconomic research while only specifying microeconomic behavior and,
moreover,to reconcile the modeling of complex systems with the praxeological
researchprogram.Thisalsomeansthatthemodeldoesexhibitgenuinemicrofoun-
dations,butthesemustnotbeconfoundedwiththemicrofoundationsofneoclassi-
caleconomics.Sinceallagentsinthismodeloperateunderknowledgeconstraints
and uncertainty and since all their actions are bound in historic time the notion
ofthehomooeconomicus,whichisgermanetoneoclassicaleconomics,cannotbe