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A HISTORY OF THE SCIENCE AND POLITICS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The issue of human-induced global climate change became a major environ-
mentalconcernduringthetwentiethcentury,andistheparamountenvironmental
debate of the twenty-first century. Response to climate change requires effective
interaction from the scientific community, society in general, and politicians in
particular. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), formed in
1988, has gradually developed to become the key UN body in providing this
service to the countries of the world.
Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of
theIPCC.Itdescribesandevaluatestheintricateinterplaybetweenkeyfactorsin
thescienceandpoliticsofclimatechange,thestrategythathasbeenfollowed,and
the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have
prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging
conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing
a serious change in global climate. This text provides researchers and policy
makers with an insight into the history of the politics of climate change.
BERT BOLIN is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Meteorology at the
University of Stockholm, Sweden. He is a former Director of the International
Institute for Meteorology in Stockholm, and former Scientific Advisor to the
Swedish Prime Minister. He was Chairman of the IPCC from 1988 to 1997.
Professor Bolin has received many awards during his career, including the
Blue Planet Prize from the Asahi Glass Foundation, the Rossby Medal from
the American Meteorological Society, the Global Environmental Leadership
Award from the World Bank, and the Arrhenius Medal from the Royal Swedish
Academy of Sciences.
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A HISTORY OF THE SCIENCE
AND POLITICS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change
BERT BOLIN
UniversityofStockholm
IPCCChairman1988–1997
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CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown,Singapore,Sa˜oPaulo
CambridgeUniversityPress
TheEdinburghBuilding,CambridgeCB28RU,UK
PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork
www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9780521880824
©B.Bolin2007
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithout
thewrittenpermissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2007
PrintedintheUnitedKingdomattheUniversityPress,Cambridge
AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
ISBN978-0-521-88082-4hardback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceor
accuracyofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredto
inthispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuch
websitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate.
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Contents
Foreword by Bo Kjelle´n page ix
Abbreviations xi
Part I The early history of the climate change issue 1
1 Nineteenth-century discoveries 3
2 The natural carbon cycle and life on earth 9
2.1 Glimpses of the historical development of
our knowledge 9
2.2 A simplified view of the present carbon cycle 13
3 Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology 19
3.1 Building scientific networks 19
3.2 Concern for the environment reaches the political agenda 27
3.3 The Global Atmospheric Research Programme becomes
engaged in the climate issue 28
4 Early international assessments of climate change 33
4.1 Initiation of assessments aimed at politicians and society 33
Part II The climate change issue becomes one of global concern 41
5 Setting the stage 43
5.1 The report by the UN Commission on Environment and
Development 43
5.2 How to create a forum for interactions between science
and politics 45
5.3 The IPCC is formed and a first assessment is begun 49
6 The scientific basis for a climate convention 53
6.1 Work begins 53
6.2 Politicians are anxious to show their concern for
the environment 56
6.3 The IPCC works towards the completion of the
First Assessment Report 61
v
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vi Contents
6.4 The acceptance and approval of the IPCC
First Assessment Report 67
6.5 Scientific input in the negotiations about a
framework convention 68
6.6 What has the experience so far to say about the
role of science? 77
7 Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiations Committee 79
7.1 Changes of the IPCC structure and new members of
the Bureau 79
7.2 Cooperation with the Intergovernmental
Negotiations Committee 85
7.3 Predictions or scenarios of future changes of the
global climate? 87
7.4 Attempting to put Article 2 of the Climate Convention
into focus 93
7.5 Equity and social considerations 94
7.6 Growing awareness of climate change and polarisation
of opinions 97
7.7 The approval of the 1994 special report runs
into difficulties 102
7.8 Preparing for the future role of the IPCC 104
8 The IPCC second assessment report 106
8.1 First party conference of the FCCC 106
8.2 The IPCC Second Assessment Report 111
8.3 Stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations 119
8.4 The synthesis report 122
9 In the aftermath of the IPCC second assessment 125
9.1 The post-Second Assessment Report discussions of an
action programme to be agreed in Kyoto 125
9.2 The IPCC assessment is challenged 126
9.3 Preparation for the third conference of the parties to
FCCC in Kyoto 137
9.4 Increasing industrialisation and globalisation of the world 143
9.5 Starting work towards a third assessment 144
10 The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun 147
10.1 Central themes of the Protocol 147
10.2 The interplay of science and politics 153
10.3 Opposition to the Kyoto Protocol grows 154
10.4 How to settle disagreements on the interpretation of
the Kyoto Protocol 159
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Contents vii
11 A decade of hesitance and slow progress 163
11.1 Work towards the IPCC Third Assessment Report 163
11.2 Resistance towards taking action and political
man(cid:1)uvring 178
11.3 Other challenges of the IPCC conclusions 181
11.4 The leadership of the IPCC is changed 185
11.5 Ratifications of the Kyoto Protocol 187
11.6 The eleventh conference of the parties to the
Climate Convention 190
Part III Are we at a turning point in addressing climate change? 193
12 Key scientific findings of prime political relevance 195
12.1 The general setting 195
12.2 The story of global warming told to politicians,
stakeholders and the public 196
12.3 Impacts and adaptation 210
12.4 Science, media and the general public 211
13 Climate change and a future sustainable global energy supply 214
13.1 Delayed action in spite of trustworthy scientific assessments 214
13.2 Past and future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols 215
13.3 Primary energy reserves and resources and their utilisation 224
13.4 The supply of energy under the constraints of minimising
climate change 233
13.5 The need for a multidimensional approach 238
13.6 The economy of a transition to a sustainable energy
supply system 242
13.7 Politics of securing a global sustainable energy
supply system 245
Some concluding remarks 248
Notes 251
References 262
Name Index 273
Subject Index 275
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Foreword
Bo Kjelle´n
As a climate negotiator in the early 1990s I have a strong recollection of
the impact of Professor Bolin’s statements to the International Negotiating
Committee for the Framework Convention on Climate Change. When the chair-
man of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented
its findings there was silence in the room: here were the facts, the certainties
and the uncertainties.
We were all part of a process in which national interests and national instruc-
tionsgovernedouractionsandlimitedtherateofprogress.Wewereallpainfully
awareofthis,andwewerealsoonalearningcurve.Asdiplomatsandgeneralists,
mostofushadlimitedknowledgeofthesubstantialissuesofclimatechange,but
here we had the opportunity to listen to one of the most prestigious experts,
speaking in clear language, devoid of academic jargon. Furthermore, we realised
that Bert Bolin, as a former scientific adviser in the Swedish Prime Minister’s
office, had a thorough knowledge of the political process, its possibilities and
limitations.
All this enabled him to set high standards for the work of the IPCC from the
beginning,creatingascientificbackstoptothenegotiationswhichinmyviewhas
hadadecisiveimpactontherelativesuccessoftheprocess.TheIPCCisnotonly
avenueforinterdisciplinaryscience,itisalsoameeting-placeforresearchersand
Government officials, thereby facilitating the inevitable process of multilateral
bargaining on the terms of legally binding international instruments.
As the discussions and negotiations for the climate regime after 2012 now get
under way, it is of great importance that negotiators have a clear picture of the
background to the negotiations, and that they realise the full importance of the
subtle interaction between scientific research and progress in the negotiations.
This book provides an inside view and an authoritative interpretation of the
process which will no doubt assist in the difficult tasks ahead. It will also help
all interested to get a clearer picture of the status of climate research and of the
ix
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x Foreword
energyfuturesthatwillbedecisiveforglobaleconomicandpoliticalrelationsall
through this century.
However, there are also wider issues involved. Changes in immense global
systems brought about by human influence go beyond climate. Freshwater,
oceans, desertification, fisheries and biodiversity are all issues that create serious
threats for the future. We are only beginning to grasp the complicated systemic
problemsinvolved;stilllessdoweunderstandhowoursocietycanbestcopewith
them. But we realize that sound scientific research – within both the natural and
the social sciences – is necessary to provide background for political action. The
IPCC approach may provide important clues to how to tackle other global
problems.
One final remark about the nature of these threats, and their impact on the
international political system: in my view, the fact that we risk creating irrevers-
ible damage to the planet’s life-supporting systems forces us to consider new
objectives in international cooperation in order to ensure the welfare of future
generations. Therefore I believe that a new diplomacy for sustainable develop-
mentisemerging,stillintheshadowoftraditionaldiplomacywithitsrelianceon
national security, ultimately through military means. As the character of global
threats of a new kind is more clearly understood, it may well be that this new
diplomacy will create different and better ways of dealing with common prob-
lems, opening new avenues for multilateral cooperation in the UN framework, at
present clearly in crisis. Since this diplomacy for sustainable development is so
dependent on scientific research, the IPCC story is worth considering very
carefully.
