A Grand Strategy for America

345 Pages·2004·1.512 MB·English

by  Robert J. Art

A Grand Strategy for America
A volume in the series
cornell studies in security affairs
edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt
A full list of the titles in the series appears at the end of the book.
Also by Robert J. Art
The TFX Decision: McNamara and the Military. Boston: Little, Brown, 1968.
Edited with Vincent Davis and Samuel P. Huntington, Reorganizing America’s
Defense. Washington: Pergamon-Brassey’s, 1985.
Edited with Seyom Brown, U.S. Foreign Policy: The Search for a New Role. New
York: Macmillan, 1993.
Edited with Patrick Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy.
Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2003.
A Grand Strategy
for America
Robert J. Art
A CENTURY FOUNDATION BOOK
Cornell University Press ithaca and london
the century foundation
The Century Foundation, formerly the Twentieth Century Fund,
sponsors and supervises timely analyses of economic policy, foreign
affairs, and domestic political issues. Not-for-profit and nonpartisan,
it was founded in 1919 and endowed by Edward A. Filene.
Board of Trustees of The Century Foundation
H. Brandt Ayers Richard C. Leone
Peter A. A. Berle Jessica Tuchman Mathews
Alan Brinkley, Chairman Alicia H. Munnell
Joseph A. Califano, Jr. P. Michael Pitfield
Alexander Morgan Capron John Podesta
Hodding Carter III Richard Ravitch
Edward E. David, Jr. Alan Sagner
Brewster C. Denny Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr.
Christopher Edley, Jr. Theodore C. Sorensen
Charles V. Hamilton Kathleen M. Sullivan
Matina S. Horner Shirley Williams
Lewis B. Kaden William Julius Wilson
James A. Leach
Richard C. Leone, President
Copyright © 2003 by The Century Foundation, Inc.
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this
book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without
permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address
Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca,
New York 14850.
First published 2003 by Cornell University Press
First printing, Cornell Paperbacks, 2004
Printed in the United States of America
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Art, Robert J.
A grand strategy for America / Robert J. Art.
p. cm.
“A Century Foundation Book.”
Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index.
ISBN-13: 978-0-8014-4139-4 (cloth : alk. paper)
ISBN-13: 978-0-8014-8957-0 (pbk.: alk. paper)
1.United States—Foreign relations—2001—Philosophy. 2.
United States—Foreign relations—1989– 3. United States—
Military policy. 4. World politics—1995–2005. I. Title.
E895.A78 2003
327.73—dc21
2003000457
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For Suzanne, who has always been there for me

Contents
List of Figures and Tables ix
Foreword by Richard C. Leone xi
Acknowledgments xv
Introduction 1
1 The International Setting 12
2 America’s National Interests 45
3 Dominion, Collective Security, and Containment 82
4 Selective Engagement 121
5 Isolationism and Offshore Balancing 172
6 Selective Engagement and the Free Hand Strategies 198
7 Implementing Selective Engagement 223
Appendix A. Civil Wars Active between 1991 and 2000 249
Appendix B. International Wars Active between 1991
and 2000 252
Notes 253
Index 305
vii

Figures and Tables
figure 1.1 World Exports as a Share of Gross World
Product, 1830–1913, 1950–2000 21
figure 1.2 Annual War Occurrence, 1945–2000 40
table 1.1 Foreign Assets of Deposit Banks as a Share of
Gross World Product, 1960–1994 22
table 1.2 World Direct and Portfolio Investment Flows, 1960–1999 23
table 1.3 Investment Flows as a Share of Gross
World Product, 1970–1999 23
table 1.4 Daily Currency Turnover, 1986–2001 24
table 1.5 The G-7 and International Trade, 1937–2000 25
table 1.6 World Exports among and between Industrial
and Developing States as a Percent of Total World
Exports, 1960–2000 26
table 1.7 International and Civil Wars by Region, 1991–2000 39
table 1.8 International Conditions and America’s Interests 43
table 2.1 Ranking America’s National Interests 46
table 2.2 Energy Dependence and Oil Import Dependence,
1970–1999 (selected countries) 60
table 2.3 Percent of Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Source,
1973 and 1999 (selected countries) 61
table 2.4 America’s Interests and the Prime Threats to Them 79
table 3.1 A Comparison of Eight Grand Strategies 84
ix