A formal model for risk assessment in software projects

280 Pages·6.3 MB·en_US

by  Nogueira de Leon, Juan Carlos.

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DISSERTATION
A FORMAL MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT
IN SOFTWARE PROJECTS
by
Juan Carlos Nogueira de Leon
September 2000
Dissertation Advisor: Luqi
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

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4. TITLEANDSUBTITLE : AForma]ModelforRiskAssessmentinSoftwareProjects 5. FUNDINGNUMBERS
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6. AUTHOR(S) Nogueira,JuanC. ARO-40473-MA
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ABSTRACT
13.
The current state of the art techniques of risk assessment rely on checklists and human expertise. This constitutes a weak approach because
different people could arrive at different conclusions from the same scenario. The difficulty of estimating the duration of projects applying
evolutionarysoftwareprocessesaddsintricacytotheriskassessmentproblem.Thisdissertationintroducesaformal methodtoassesstheriskand
the duration ofsoftware projects automatically, based on measurements thatcanbeobtainedearly in the developmentprocess. The method has
been designedaccordingtothecharacteristicsofevolutionarysoftwareprocesses, suchasefficiency, requirement volatilityandcomplexity. The
formal modelbasedonthesethreeindicatorsestimatesthedurationandriskofevolutionarysoftwareprocesses.Theapproach introduces benefits
intwofields:a)automationofriskassessmentand,b)earlyestimationmethodsforevolutionarysoftwareprocesses.
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RiskAssessment,FormalModels,SoftwareEstimationModels,SoftwareMetrics,ProjectManagement. OFPAGES
270
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
A FORMAL MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT IN SOFTWARE PROJECTS
Juan Carlos Nogueira de Leon
Captain, Navy ofUruguay
B.S., Universidad de la Republica, 1985
M.S., Universidad O.R.T., 1993
Submitted in partial fulfillment ofthe
requirements for the degree of
DOCTOR IN PHILOSOPHY IN SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
from the
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
September 2000