A conceptual framework for providing requisite variety in the future operational forces of the United States Army

136 Pages·3.1 MB·English

by  Bushey, Douglas B

NPS ARCHIVE
1997.12
BUSHEY, D.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
Monterey, California
THESIS
A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR
PROVIDING REQUISITE VARIETY IN THE
FUTURE OPERATIONAL FORCES
OF THE UNITED STATES ARMY
by
Douglas B. Bushey
December, 1997
Thesis Advisor: Mark E. Nissen
Associate Advisor: Michael W. Boudreau
Thesis
B9235
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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December 1997 Master's Thesis
4. TITLEANDSUBTITLETITLE OF THESIS: A CONCEPTUAL FUNDINGNUMBERS
FRAMEWORKFORPROVIDING REQUISITE VARIETY IN THE
FUTURE OPERATIONAL FORCES OF THE UNITED STATES ARMY
6. AUTHOR(S) Bushey, Douglas B.
PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONNAME(S)ANDADDRESS(ES) PERFORMING
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Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION
Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORTNUMBER
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13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200words)
The future forces of the U.S. Army face a great variety of threats with unprecedented complexities. The
American public demands a quick, decisive victory with minimal casualties. In order to accomplish this, the Army
musthave the capabilityto totallydominate and control the enemy. RequisiteVariety is essential to this mission. This
research shows that in order to totally dominate the battlefield, the variety of options available to the friendly
commander must be greater than or equal to that ofthe enemy. However, concurrent with the dramatic changes in the
global environment, the U.S. has significantly decreased defense spending. The competition for these dwindling
defense dollars has increasedthe Army's riskofmisallocating its scarce resources to a few "brilliant" systems without
regard to the factor of variety. This research provides a conceptual framework that innovates the Requirements
Determination process by utilizing variety as a factor. It reveals concrete ways to provide the commander with the
necessary variety to dominate the battlefield: through regulation, information, and variety catalysts. By applying the
framework to the concepts ofForce XXI operations, the researcher develops the Time-Information Differential. This
suggests thatgiventhe current budgetaryconstraints, the Army should focus its short term material acquisitions on C^I
and mobility assets. However, to achieve synergistic results, the Army should concurrently research other types of
weapon systems usingtheframework as aguide.
14 subjectTERMS Resource Allocation, Requisite Variety, Requirements 15. NUMBEROF
Determination, Force XXI Operations. PAGES 132
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR PROVIDING REQUISITE
VARIETY IN THE FUTURE OPERATIONAL FORCES
OF THE UNITED STATES ARMY
Douglas B. pushey
Major, United States Army
B.S., Indiana University, 1986
Submitted in partial fulfillment
ofthe requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MANAGEMENT
from the
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
December 1997

DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
MONTEREY CA
93943-5101
ABSTRACT
The future forces of the U.S. Army face a great variety of threats with
unprecedented complexities. The American public demands a quick, decisive
victory with minimal casualties. In order to accomplish this, the Army must have
the capability to totally dominate and control the enemy. Requisite Variety is
essential to this mission. This research shows that in order to totally dominate the
battlefield, the variety of options available to the friendly commander must be
greater than or equal to that ofthe enemy. However, concurrent with the dramatic
changes in the global environment, the U.S. has significantly decreased defense
spending. The competition for these dwindling defense dollars has increased the
Army's risk of misallocating its scarce resources to a few 'brilliant" systems
without regard to the factor of variety. This research provides a conceptual
framework that innovates the Requirements Determination process by utilizing
variety as a factor. It reveals concrete ways to provide the commander with the
necessary variety to dominate the battlefield: through regulation, information, and
variety catalysts. By applying the framework to the concepts of Force XXI
operations, the researcher develops the Time-Information Differential. This
suggests that given the current budgetary constraints, the Army should focus its
short term material acquisitions on C^I and mobility assets. However, to achieve
synergistic results, the Army should concurrently research other types of weapon
systems using the framework as a guide.
VI
..
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
I 1
PURPOSE
A.
1
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
B. 2
1 Primary Research Question 2
2 Secondary Research Questions 2
.
BACKGROUND
C. 2
D. SCOPE 5
E METHODOLOGY 6
ORGANIZATION
F. 7
G. BENEFITS OF STUDY 8
REQUIREMENTS DETERMINATION PROCESS
II. 11
INTRODUCTION
A. 11
B PROCESS OVERVIEW
11
C ELEMENTS OF THE REQUIREMENTS DETERMINATION PROCESS .13
1 Concept Development 13
2. Future Operational Capabilities 14
3. Science and Technology 15
4. Warfighting Experiments 15
5. Integrated Concept Teams (ICTs) 16
D SUMMARY OF THE PROCESS 17
CHAPTER SUMMARY
E. 19
III FORCE XXI OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS 21
INTRODUCTION
A. 21
B THREATS AND FUTURE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT 21
—
1 Trends Elements ofInstability 22
2. Characteristics ofFuture Armies 25
vn
...
C RECENT HISTORY OF DOCTRINE 29
D CHARACTERISTICS OF FORCE XXI OPERATIONS 32
1. Multi-Dimensional 32
2. Precise 33
3. Non-Linear 34
4. Distributed Operations 35
5 Simultaneous 36
6. Integrated 36
PATTERNS OF OPERATIONS
E. 37
1. Project the Force 37
2. Protect the Force 38
3 Gain Information Dominance 39
4. Shape the Battlespace 40
5 Decisive Operations 40
6. Sustain the Force 41
F. IMPLICATIONS OF FORCE XXI OPERATIONS 42
SUMMARY
G. 47
IV. THE THEORY OF REQUISITE VARIETY 49
INTRODUCTION
A. 49
B THE LAW OF REQUISITE VARIETY 49
SUMMARY
C. 59
V A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
61
A INTRODUCTION
61
VARIETY A FACTOR
B. IS 61
1. Regulation 63
2. Information 64
3. Variety Catalysts 66
4. Summary 69
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