A comparative study of the accuracy of statistical and clinical methods of predicting employee success from biographical and test data

107 Pages·04.339 MB·English

by  Parsons, Stuart Overton

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE ACCURACY OF STATISTICAL AND
CLINICAL METHODS OF PREDICTING EMPLOYEE SUCCESS FROM
BIOGRAPHICAL AND TEST DATA
A Thesis
Presented to
the Faculty of the Department of Psychology
The U niversity of Southern C alifornia
In P artial F ulfillm ent
of the Requirements for the Degree
Master of Arts in Psychology
by
Stuart Overton Parsons
January 1950
UMI Number: EP63995
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This thesis, written by
.STUART. .QIERTOH. PARSONS............................................
under the guidance of /l ± sl.. Faculty Committee,
and approved by all its members, has been
presented to and accepted by the Council on
Graduate Study and Research in partial fulfill­
ment of the requirements for the degree of
MSTER.OF.JRTS
Dean
January 1950
Date.
Faculty Committee
Chairman
S. M. WESLEY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGE
I. THE PROBLEM AND DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED . . 1
The p rob lem .................................................................... . 1
Statement of the problem .................................... 1
Importance of the study .................................... 2
D efin ition s of terms used ..................................... 3
A pplication blank . . . . . .......................... 3
C riterion ........................................................................ ^
Sim ilar, related , and unrelated ..................... 4
C lin ical ........................................................................ 5
W herry-Doolittle Method .......................................... 5
Successive cutting-score method ..................... 6
The standard group .................................................... 6
The prediction group . ...............................• • 7
Organization of the th esis . .......................... 7
II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE...................................... 8
Biographical data .................................... 8
Types and uses of biographical data . . . 8
Development of the present weighted appli­
cation blank at L o c k h e e d ....................... 10
Methods of p r e d ic tio n ................................... 12
The s ta tis tic a l versus the c lin ic a l view­
point in predicting behavior ..................... 12
Experimental studies comparing the two
methods of prediction ................................ 16
i l l
PTER PAG-E
III* A DESCRIPTION OF THE SUBJECTS, DATA, AND CRI­
TERION USED................................................................ 21
The subjects ............................................................... 21
The data ................................................................................... 21
The criterio n . .............................................. - 25
IV. EXPERIMENTAL TECHNIQUES AND RESULTS OF THE STUDY 27
The c lin ic a lly predicted weights ........................... 27
The method used and the weights derived . 27
The correlation c o e ffic ie n t between the
to ta l weights and the criterio n . . . . 33
The W herry-Doolittle method ..................................... 37
The prelim inary in vestigation ................................ 37
C orrelation c o e ffic ie n ts between the items
or te sts and the criterio n ........................... 39
The in ter correlations of the remaining items 40
The M ultiple R ............................................................ Al
The regression w eights .........................................
The prediction scores ...................................... . 4A
C orrelation between predicted and obtained
s c o r e s .............................................................. bb
The successive eutting-score method . . . . ^9
E stablishing the te s t g r o u p s ............ 49
The standardization group resu lts . . . . A9
S election of the battery u s e d ............ ^9
iv
CHAPTER PAGE
The prediction group results ................................. 5^
Comparison of r e s u lt s ....................................... 5^
V. A COMPARISON OF THE RESULTS OF THE CLINICALLY
DERIVED WEIGHTS, THE WHERRY-DOOLITTLE METHOD,
THE SUCCESSIVE CUTTING-SCORE METHOD ............................ 57
The method and sta tistic s u s e d ....................... 57
Basis of comparison . . . ................................. 57
Significance of difference between means
of best cases selected by each method . . 57
VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .................................................... 65
Summary ..................................................................................... 65
The c lin ic a lly derived weights ............................ 65
W herry-Doolittle method .......................................... 65
Successive Cutting-score method ............................ 66
Comparison summary of a ll methods used . • 67
Significance of the difference between means 6?
Conclusions 68
BIBLIOGRAPHY ?0
APPENDIX A — Tests u s e d ............................................................ 73
APPENDIX B — Raw data from application blanks . • . . 83
APPENDIX C — W herry-Doolittle Work Sheets............................... 91
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE PAGE
I. Frequency D istribution of A g e s ................................. 22
II. Frequency D istribution of C riterion Scores . 29
III. A Frequency D istribution of the Summed Ruch
Weights of the Prediction G r o u p ..................... 34
IV. Summed Ruch Weights and C riterion Scores of
the Prediction G roup............................... 35>
V. C orrelations of Biographical Data Items and
Tests with the C riterion 38
VI. In tercorrelation Matrix of Remaining Biographi­
ca l Data I te m s ................................................................... 42
VII. The Increase In M ultiple R as Each Item Was
Added . .............................................. ^3
VIII. The Item Weights and Constant K .......................... 45
IX. Actual and Predicted C riterion Scores by the
W herry-Doolittle Method 46, 4?,
X. Standardization Scores by the Successive
Cutting-Score Method ..................... . . . . . . 50
XI. Composition of Test B atteries by Successive
Cutting-Score Method .................................................... 52
XII. P redictive E fficien cy of Standardization Bat­
teries by Successive Cutting-Score Method 53
XIII. P redictive E fficien cy of Prediction B atteries
by Successive Gutting-Score Method . . . . 55
v i
TABLE PACE
XIV. Actual Mean C riterion Scores of the Best Cases
Selected from the Prediction Croup by R.uch!s
Derived W eights, The Successive Cutting-Score
B atteries, and the W herry-Doolittle Method . 58
XV. C orrelation C oefficien ts Between the Best Num­
ber of Gases Selected by the Cutting-Score
B atteries, Ruch's Derived Weights, and the
W herry-Doolittle Method for Use in the Stand­
ard Error of the D ifference Between Means
Form ulae.................................................................................. . 61
XVI. Significance of D ifferences Between Means by
Guttlng-Score B atteries and Ruch's Weights . 62
XVII. Significance of D ifferences between Means by
the Successive Cutting-Score B atteries and
the W herry-Doolittle M ethod..................................... 63
XVIII. Significance of D ifferences between Means by
the W herry-Doolittle Method and Ruch’s
Weights ........................................................................................ 64
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE PAGE
1. Lockheed A ircraft Corporation — A pplication
Supplement ................................................................................... 23
2. Lockheed A ircraft Corporation — Employee
Periodic Review ................................................................... 26
3 . Graphic Representation of the P redictive E ffi­
ciency of Standardization and Prediction Groups 56
4 Mean C riterion Scores of Best Selected Cases hy
Each Method .................................................................................. 59
CHAPTER I*
THE PROBLEM AND DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED
For centuries men have used past and present perform­
ance to predict the future behavior of their fellow men.
This approach to prediction often varies w ith the observer,
but has frequently been upheld because it removes nothing
from the to ta l lif e situ ation . Moreover, an in fin ite num­
ber of q u a lities can be used to make up a composite judg­
ment. However, from Calton, Pearson and other sc ie n tific
predecessors, the contemporary so c ia l s c ie n tis ts have in ­
herited the actu arial or s ta tis tic a l approach. Those who
recommend th is method maintain that its advantages co n sist
of not having to rely on personal judgments or in tu itiv e
feelin g s. These supporters w ill admit, however, that the
number of factors which may be used in a s ta tis tic a l predic­
tion are lim ited to a certain extent. Both of these approaches
are widely used at present in the experim ental and the applied
branches of a ll the so c ia l scien ces. Therefore, it is of
utmost importance that we examine and experim entally study
the m erits and lim ita tio n s o f each method.
I. THE PROBLEM
Statement of the problem. In the study to be reported
herein, the objective was to: (l) compare the correlations