Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals

560 Pages·2000·8.71 MB·English

by  Niall Ferguson

E D I T ED BY
N I A LL F E R G U S ON
THE PITY OF WAR
E S T S E L L I NG A U T H OR OF
HISTOR
HISTORY
"Quite brilliant, inspiring for the layman and an enviable tour de force for the
informed reader.... A wonderful book... lucid, exciting and easy to read."
— Claus von Biilow, Literary Review
"Sizzling essays hot from the academic griddle." — Piers Brendon, Mail on Sunday
What if there had been no American War of Independence? What if
Ireland had never been divided? What if Britain had stayed out of the
First World War? What if Hitler had invaded Britain or had defeated
the Soviet Union? What if the Russians had won the Cold War? What
if Kennedy had lived? What if there had been no Gorbachev?
This book is a delightful but historically rigorous series of separate voyages into "imag­
inary time" and provides intriguing, far-reaching answers to these questions. Virtual
History features contributions from talented, imaginative and well-regarded historians,
led by Niall Ferguson. Ferguson's ninety-page introduction is a brilliant manifesto-like
defense of the methodology of counterfactual history and offers a convincing justifica­
tion of the whole enterprise. His equally masterful afterword traces the likely historical
ripples that would have proceeded from the maintenance of Stuart rule in England. This
breathtaking narrative paints a picture of our world that is convincingly skewed: from
the accession of "James III" in 1701 and a Nazi-occupied England, to U. S. Prime Minister
Kennedy who lives to complete his term and the "Sultan of Baghdad" Saddam Hussein.
Niall Ferguson is Fellow and Tutor in Modern History at Jesus College, Ox Ford. He is
the author of Paper andiron. The House of Rothschilds and Basic s own The Pity of War.
"The implications of Virtual History deserve to be meditated by every historian.. .a
talented and imaginative team of historians who tackle with counterfactual verve a
series of mostly twentieth century turning points."
— Christopher Andrew, Daily Telegraph
Jacket illustration by Michael Bennett
BASIC
B
A Member of the Perseus Books Group
http://www.basicbooks.com
V I R T U AL H I S T O RY
Niall Ferguson is Fellow and Tutor in Modern History at Jesus
College, Oxford. He recently published Paper and Iron: Hamburg
Business and German Politics in the Era of Inflation 1897-1927
which was shortlisted for the History Today Book of the Year
award. He has also written numerous articles on nineteenth- and
twentieth-century financial history, including a critique of
Keynes's Economic Consequences of the Peace and is the author
of a history of the Rothschilds. A prolific commentator on
contemporary politics, he lives with his wife and two children in
Oxfordshire.

V I R T U AL HISTORY:
Alternatives and Counter]^actuals
EDITED BY
Niall Ferguson
BBASIC
BOOKS
A Member of the
Perseus Books Group
Virtual History was first published in hardcover in Great Britain by Picador in 1997. The Basic
Books edition is reprinted by arrangement with Papermac, an imprint of Macmillan Publishers
Ltd.
This collection copyright © Niall Ferguson 1997
Published 1999 by Basic Books,
A Member of the Perseus Books Group.
All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be re­
produced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief
quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information, address Basic Books, 10
East 53rd Street, New York, NY 10022-5299.
Typeset by CentraCet, Cambridge
A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 0-465-02323-1
01 02 03 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
CONTENTS
Contributors vii
Acknowledgements x
INTRODUCTION
Virtual History: Towards a 'chaotic' theory of the past i
Niall Ferguson
1. ENGLAND WITHOUT CROMWELL:
What if Charles I had avoided the Civil War? 91
John Adamson
2. BRITISH AMERICA:
What if there had been no American Revolution? 125
J. C. D. Clark
3. BRITISH IRELAND:
What if Home Rule had been enacted in 1912? 175
Alvin Jackson
4. THE KAISER'S EUROPEAN UNION:
What if Britain had 'stood aside' in August 1914? 228
Niall Ferguson
5. HITLER'S ENGLAND:
What if Germany had invaded Britain in May 1940? 281
Andrew Roberts and Niall Ferguson
6. NAZI EUROPE:
What if Nazi Germany had defeated the Soviet Union? 321
Michael Burleigh
7. STALIN'S WAR OR PEACE:
What if the Cold War had been avoided? 348
Jonathan Haslam
8. CAMELOT CONTINUED:
What if John F. Kennedy had lived? 368
Diane Kunz
9. 1989 WITHOUT GORBACHEV:
What if Communism had not collapsed? 392
Mark Almond
AFTERWORD:
A Virtual History, 1646-1996 416
Niall Ferguson
Notes 441
Index
530
Contributors
NIALL FERGUSON is Fellow and Tutor in Modern History at
Jesus College, Oxford. He recently published Paper and Iron:
Hamburg Business and German Politics in the Era of Inflation
1897-1927 (1995), which was shortlisted for the History Today
Book of the Year award. He has written numerous articles on
nineteenth- and twentieth-century financial history, and is cur­
rently writing a history of Rothschilds.
JOHN ADAMSON is a Fellow of Peterhouse, Cambridge, and has
published extensively on the political and cultural history of
seventeenth-century Britain. He won the Royal Historical
Society's Alexander Prize in 1990, and is currently editing the
official history of The Commons: 1640-1660 for the History of
Parliament Trust.
JONATHAN CLARK is Joyce and Elizabeth Hall Distinguished
Professor of British History at the University of Kansas. His
publications include The Dynamics of Change (1982), English
Society 1688-1832 (1985), Revolution and Rebellion (1986), The
Language of Liberty; 1660-1832: Political Discourse and Social
Dynamics in the Anglo-American World (1993) and Samuel John­
son: Literature, Religion and English Cultural Politics from the
Restoration to Romanticism (1994). He has edited The Memoirs
and Speeches of James, 2nd Earl Waldegrave 1742-1763 (1988)
and Ideas and Politics in Modern Britain (1989).
vn
CONTRIBUTORS
ALVIN JACKSON is Reader in Modern History at the Queen's
University of Belfast, and has been Lecturer in Modern Irish
History at University College Dublin and John Burns Visiting
Professor of Irish Studies at Boston College. He is author of The
Ulster Party (1989), Sir Edward Carson (1993) and Colonel
Edward Saunderson: Land and Loyalty in Victorian Ireland
(1995). He is at present working on the Blackwell History of
Modern Ireland.
ANDREW ROBERTS was an Honorary Senior Scholar at Gonville
and Caius College, Cambridge. His books include The Holy Fox,
A Biography of Lord Halifax (1991), Eminent Churchillians (1994)
and The Aachen Memorandum (1995). He is currently writing the
authorized biography of the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury.
MICHAEL BURLEIGH is Distinguished Research Professor of
History at the University of Wales, Cardiff. His books include
Prussian Society and the German Order (1984), Germany Turns
Eastwards: A Study of cOstforschung} in the Third Reich (1988),
The Racial State: Germany 1933-1945 (with Wolfgang Wipper-
mann, 1991), Death and Deliverance: 'Euthanasia' in Germany,
1900-1945 (1994) and Confronting the Nazi Past (1996). His
essays, Ethics and Extermination: Essays on Nazi Genocide will be
published shortly. His award-winning Channel 4 Documentaries
include Selling Murder and Heil Herbie.
JONATHAN HASLAM is a Fellow and Director of Studies in
History at Corpus Christi College, Cambridge, and Assistant
Director of Studies in International Relations at the Cambridge
University Centre of International Studies. He is the author of
The Soviet Union and the Struggle for Collective Security in
Europe 1933-1939 (1984) and The Soviet Union and the Threat
from the East 1933-1941 (1992). He has recently completed a
biography of E. H. Carr and is currently writing The Realist
Tradition in International Relations: from Machiavelli to Waltz.
Vlll