Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts

297 Pages·2011·9.64 MB·English

by  National Research Council, Committee on the Review of the Tsunami Warning and Forecast System and Overview of the Nation's Tsunami Preparedness

Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts
Tsunami Warning and Preparedness
An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program
and the Nation’s Preparedness Efforts
Committee on the Review of the Tsunami Warning and Forecast System and
Overview of the Nation’s Tsunami Preparedness
Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts
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members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe-
tences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the University of Alaska Fairbanks under contract number
UAF-08-0050, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number
DG133W08SE4972, and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, fndings, conclusions,
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Front Cover: Image of the North Pacifc Ocean depicts predicted maximum wave lengths.
Contour lines indicate the travel times in hours of the leading tsunami wave generated by an
earthquake near the Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006, with permission from Vasily Titov,
NOAA/PMEL. Image of the tsunami hazard zone warning sign was provided by Jenifer Rhoades
of NOAA. Tsunami public education: A small-group discussion between a seaside, Oregon,
tsunami outreach coordinator and middle school student. Image courtesy of DOGAMI. Image
of the DART buoy was taken from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/images/dart_
buoy-wave2.jpg, NOAA.
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Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts
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Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts
COMMITTEE ON THE REVIEW OF THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND FORECAST
SYSTEM AND OVERVIEW OF THE NATION’S TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS
JOHN A. ORCUTT (Chair), University of California, San Diego, La Jolla
MARTHA R. GRABOWSKI (Vice-chair), Le Moyne College, Syracuse, New York, and Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York
BRIAN F. ATWATER, U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle, Washington
ANN BOSTROM, University of Washington, Seattle
GEORGE CRAWFORD, Washington State Emergency Management Division (Retired),
Camp Murray
RICHARD K. EISNER, Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention
Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan
JIAN LIN, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
DOUGLAS S. LUTHER*, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu
HUGH B. MILBURN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Retired), Lake Forest
Park, Washington
DENNIS S. MILETI, University of Colorado (Retired), Rancho Mirage, California
EMILE A. OKAL*, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois
COSTAS E. SYNOLAKIS, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
NATHAN J. WOOD, U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington
HARRY YEH, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon
Staff
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Study Director
SUSAN PARK, Senior Program Offcer (until December 2009)
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Program Offcer (from January 2010)
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
SHERRIE FORREST, Research Associate
JEREMY JUSTICE, Senior Program Assistant
HELENA ANTOUN, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow (from
September to December 2009)
IAN BROSNAN, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow (from
January to April 2010)
* Resigned from the committee.

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
DONALD F. BOESCH (Chair), University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science,
Cambridge
EDWARD A. BOYLE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
JORGE E. CORREDOR, University of Puerto Rico, Mayag�ez
KEITH R. CRIDDLE, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau
JODY W. DEMING, University of Washington, Seattle
MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas
ROBERT HALLBERG, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Princeton
University, New Jersey
DEBRA HERNANDEZ, Hernandez and Company, Isle of Palms, South Carolina
ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University, Corvallis
KIHO KIM, American University, Washington, DC
BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
ROBERT A. LAWSON, Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California
GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California
JAY S. PEARLMAN, The Boeing Company (retired), Port Angeles, Washington
ANDREW A. ROSENBERG, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia
DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ANNE M. TREHU, Oregon State University, Corvallis
PETER L. TYACK, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
DAWN J. WRIGHT, Oregon State University, Corvallis
JAMES A. YODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Offcer
KIM WADDELL, Senior Program Offcer
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Program Offcer
MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Offcer
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
SHERRIE FORREST, Research Associate
JEREMY JUSTICE, Senior Program Assistant
EMILY OLIVER, Program Assistant
i
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts
Acknowledgments
This report was greatly enhanced by the participants of the meetings held as part of this
study. To begin with, the committee would like to thank Jenifer Rhoades (National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]) for her tremendous assistance with providing sup-
porting documentation from across NOAA and her presentation. The committee would like
to acknowledge the efforts of those who gave presentations at meetings: Susan Asturias (San
Diego County Offce of Emergency Services), Rodey Batiza (National Science Foundation),
Eddie Bernard (NOAA), Linda Bourque (University of California, Los Angeles), Gary Carver
(Humboldt State University), Kwok Fai Cheung (University of Hawaii), Herb Dragert (Geological
Survey of Canada), Paula Dunbar (NOAA), John Ferree (NOAA), James Goltz (California
Emergency Management Agency), Roger Hansen (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska,
Fairbanks), Barry Hirshorn (NOAA), Paul Huang (NOAA), William Knight (NOAA), William
Leith (U.S. Geological Survey), Michael Lindell (Texas A&M University), Michael Mahoney
(Federal Emergency Management Agency), Chris Maier (NOAA), Charles McCreery (NOAA),
Susan McLean (NOAA), Anu Mittal (Government Accountability Offce), David Oppenheimer
(U.S. Geological Survey), Ervin Petty (Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency
Management), George Priest (Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries), Karlene
Roberts (University of California, Berkeley), John Sorensen (Oak Ridge National Laboratory),
Adam Stein (NOAA), Elena Suleimani (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks),
Uri S. ten Brink (U.S. Geological Survey), Vasily Titov (NOAA), Louis Uccellini (NOAA), Christa von
Hillebrandt (University of Puerto Rico, Mayag�ez), Stuart Weinstein (NOAA), Paul Whitmore
(NOAA), Gene Whitney (Offce of Science and Technology Policy), Jay Wilson (Clackamas County
Emergency Management), Rick Wilson (California Geological Survey). These talks helped set the
stage for fruitful discussions in the closed sessions that followed.
The committee is also grateful to a number of people who provided important discussion
and/or material for this report: Leighton Ah Cook (Hawaii State Civil Defense), Christine Brown
(Rochester Institute of Technology), Laura Kong (International Tsunami Information Center),
Aurelio Mercado-Irizarry (University of Puerto Rico), Vickie Nadolski (NOAA), Therese Pierce
(NOAA), Kevin Richards (Hawaii State Civil Defense), John Schelling (Washington Emergency
Management Division), Edward Teixeira (Hawaii State Civil Defense), Tim Walsh (Washington
State Department of Natural Resources), Ray Willemann (Incorporated Research Institutions for
Seismology), Brian Yanagi (International Tsunami Information Center), Joseph Zhang (Oregon
Health and Science University).
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse per-
spectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s
Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and
critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as
ii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts
A C K N O W L E D G M E N T S
possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence,
and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain
confdential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following
individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
MANI K. CHANDY, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
LORI DENGLER, Humboldt State University, Arcata, California
ERIC GEIST, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
FRANK I. GONZÁLEZ, University of Washington, Seattle
EVE GRUNTFEST, University of Oklahoma, Norman
ARLEEN A. HILL, University of Memphis, Tennessee
PHILIP LI-FAN LIU, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
CARL MAIDA, University of California, Los Angeles
FREDRIC RAICHLEN, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and
suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did
they see the fnal draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen
by Robin K. McGuire, William Lettis and Associates, Inc., appointed by the Divison on Earth
and Life Studies, and Robert A. Dalrymple, Johns Hopkins University, appointed by the Report
Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination
of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review
comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the fnal content of this report rests
entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
iii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation's Preparedness Efforts
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
SUMMARY 3
1 INTRODUCTION 21
The Tsunami Threat in the United States, 21
Goals and Scope of this Report, 24
The Range of Options Available for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation, 25
Focus on Warning and Preparedness, 25
The Nation’s Tsunami Warning and Preparedness Efforts, 25
National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, 26
NOAA’s Tsunami Program, 28
Assessing the Nation’s Efforts, 30
Challenges to Reducing the Nation’s Vulnerability to Tsunamis, 32
Tying It All Together: Report Roadmap, 35
2 ALIGNING PRIORITIES WITH SOCIETAL RISKS FROM TSUNAMIS 37
Summary, 37
Introduction, 38
Comprehensive Risk Assessment, 40
Tsunami Hazard Assessment, 43
Inundation Modeling, 43
Hazard Maps, 53
Evacuation Maps, 61
Vulnerability Assessment, 65
Population Exposure and Sensitivity, 66
Evacuation Potential, 68
3 E DUCATION AND PREPAREDNESS OF INDIVIDUALS, COMMUNITIES, AND
DECISION MAKERS 73
Summary, 73
Introduction, 74
Education of At-Risk Individuals, 75
Factors That Increase the Effectiveness of Education, 75
Understanding the Local Risk Conditions and the Target Audience, 79
Increasing the Effectiveness of Public Education of Tsunamis, 82
ix
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.