The Global State of Democracy: Exploring Democracy's Resilience

346 Pages·2017·16.14 MB·English

First edition
The Global State
of Democracy
Exploring Democracy’s Resilience
www.idea.int
© 2017 International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
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ISBN: 978-91-7671-129-3
First edition
The Global
State of
Democracy
Exploring Democracy’s Resilience
iii
The Global State of Democracy 2017
Contents Exploring Democracy’s Resilience
Contents
Foreword vi Chapter 3. Threats from within: democracy’s
Preface viii resilience to backsliding 68
Acknowledgements x 3.1. Introduction: democracy in decline 70
Abbreviations xii 3.2. Democratic backsliding: concepts and questions 73
xiii
Introduction 3.3. Consequences of backsliding 77
3.4. Resistance to backsliding: a case for
democratic resilience 81
Chapter 1. The global state of democracy,
1975-2015 2 3.5. Conclusions and recommendations:
resistance to backsliding 85
1.1. Introduction: a systematic health check of 4
References 88
democratic progress and resilience
1.2. Challenges to democracy 6
Chapter 4. The changing nature of political
1.3. A first approximation: the spread and resilience
parties and representation 96
of electoral democracies 8
4.1. Introduction: representation under pressure 98
1.4. A broad and continuous understanding of
democracy 9 4.2. Challenges facing political parties 100
1.5. Assessing the state of democracy worldwide 12 4.3. The challenge of new parties and populism 106
1.6. A nuanced, long-term perspective on 4.4. The challenges of citizen engagement 109
democratic progress from 1975 to 2015 17 4.5. Resilient responses to the challenges
1.7. Conclusions: trendless fluctuations 27 of representation 112
References 30 4.6. Conclusions and recommendations:
overcoming challenges to parties 117
References 119
Chapter 2. Democracy’s resilience in
a changing world 34
Chapter 5. Money, influence, corruption and
2.1. Introduction: what makes democracy resilient? 36
capture: can democracy be protected? 124
2.2. Democracy imperilled: challenges, crises and
opportunities 38 5.1. Introduction: a world of scandals 126
2.3. Reaffirming democracy 43 5.2. Global challenges of money in politics 128
2.4. Resilient citizens: confronting problems and 5.3. Inadequacy of narrow political finance legal
perils of representation 45 frameworks 137
2.5. Resilient institutions: countering capture, 5.4. A holistic, fairness-oriented and integrity-
corruption and patronage 49 enhanced response 140
2.6. Resilient societies: reducing structural risks 51 5.5. Conclusions and recommendations:
protecting democracy
2.7. Designing resilience: building better 146
democracies 54 References 149
2.8. Supporting resilience: regional and
international responses 56
Chapter 6. Mind the gap: can democracy
2.9. Conclusions and recommendations: counter inequality? 158
building more resilient democracies 59
6.1. Introduction 160
References 61
6.2. Understanding inequality and social exclusion 166
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International IDEA
First Edition 2017 Contents
6.3. Inequality and democratic resilience 168 ANNEX: THE GLOBAL STATE OF
6.4. Does democracy reduce inequality? 178 DEMOCRACY INDICES METHODOLOGY
6.5. The politics of inequality: factors that have
made a difference in promoting inclusion 181
A.1. Introduction 278
6.6. Conclusions and recommendations:
A.2. Objective 278
addressing inequality 191
A.3. Conceptual distinctions 279
References 194
A.4. Criteria for indicator selection 281
A.5. Data sources 281
Chapter 7. Migration, social polarization,
A.6. Aggregation 282
citizenship and multiculturalism 200
A.7. Scale 284
7.1. Introduction 202
A.8. The use of confidence intervals for comparisons
7.2. Migration patterns and global trends 205 across countries and over time 284
7.3. The impact of migration on democracy 207 A.9. Countries and regions 286
7.4. Emigrants as agents of democracy: A.10. Cautionary notes 287
how can democracies gain from emigration? 219
A.11. Global State of Democracy indices:
7.5. The migration debate: dilemmas for country scores per decade 288
policymakers 227
References 328
7.6. Conclusions and recommendations:
managing migration democratically 234
References 239
Chapter 8. Inclusive peacebuilding in
conflict-affected states: designing for
democracy’s resilience
248
8.1. Introduction: imperatives of inclusivity 250
8.2. Trends in peacebuilding and democratization 253
8.3. Post-conflict constitutions: inclusion in practice 258
8.4. Peacebuilding through elections and political
parties 262
8.5. Conclusions and recommendations:
inclusive peacebuilding 269
References 271
v
The Global State of Democracy 2017
Foreword Exploring Democracy’s Resilience
Foreword
Recent media reports and public opinion polls have warned about the apparent growing
threats to democracy. They suggest, with pessimism, that democracy is in decline.There
are certainly reasons to be concerned.
All countries must address complex challenges International IDEA’s new publication,
that, whether originating within or outside The Global State of Democracy, offers a
of their borders, have a global reach: from comprehensive global analysis of the
food scarcity to conflict, from climate change challenges facing democracy and the policy
to terrorism and organized crime, and from options to tackle them. The text contrasts
populism to corruption. However, in my recent democratic reversals with longer-term
opinion, this is an incomplete overview positive trends, providing a nuanced fact-
of the problem. It is easy to lose sight of based perspective and proposing solutions to
the long-term gains the world has made in questions that are often overly politicized. The
maintaining democracy. By and large, public publication discusses complex, critical and
institutions today are more representative politically sensitive problems facing the world
and accountable to the needs and desires of today, such as how to provide migrants with
women and men of all ages. Over the past opportunities to participate politically in their
several decades, many states have become home and destination communities. It also
democratic and, notwithstanding obstacles addresses how money improperly influences
and some setbacks, most of them have the political system, the risks that rising
maintained that status. Today, more countries inequality levels pose to democracies and their
hold elections than ever before. Crucially, potential impact on future generations, and
most governments respect their international the strategies to create or strengthen inclusive
commitments to uphold fundamental rights, political instruments after conflict.
more individuals are able to freely cast their
votes, and civil society and its leaders can In addition, International IDEA provides
mobilize and engage in dialogue with political valuable insights on the important role women
leaders. All in all, democracy has produced a play in strengthening political institutions, how
domino effect, growing and spreading across young people can be engaged in politics, and
the planet. how innovations in technology and the media
are changing the way politics is done today.
Governments should build on this strong The publication contains a rich summary of
foundation in order to reduce the risk best practices and case studies from around
of backsliding towards authoritarianism. the world, focusing on the changing political
Regrettably, in too many cases electoral results dynamics of democracies traditionally defined
are not respected or institutions and rules as ‘consolidated’ and ‘emerging’.
are manipulated to keep leaders in power
indefinitely. This prevents citizens from The publication draws attention to both the
accessing the basic elements of freedom and positive and negative forces that influence
equality that democracy champions. democratic systems, and offers a useful set of
policy recommendations and options. While
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International IDEA
First Edition 2017 Foreword
there are no easy solutions, these ideas should ever before, International IDEA provides us
help all of us who are involved in building with key elements to analyse and suggestions
democratic societies to reinvigorate our to act on. This makes the publication
relations with our fellow citizens. exceptionally timely.
In short, at a time when joining forces to
Michelle Bachelet
safeguard democracy is more important than President of Chile
vii
The Global State of Democracy 2017
Preface Exploring Democracy’s Resilience
Preface
The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International
IDEA) is pleased to present the first edition of The Global State of Democracy. The
theme for this edition is ‘Exploring Democracy’s Resilience’.
When assessing International IDEA is the only and problem-solving approaches to support
intergovernmental organization with a global democratic reform, and to inform policymakers
the state of
mandate solely focused on democracy and and democracy practitioners worldwide. This
democracy from
elections. With 30 member states from all first edition explores democracy’s resilience
1975 onwards,
continents, International IDEA supports based on a detailed analysis of the impact of
the global and
the development of stronger democratic the process of democratic backsliding on the
regional trend institutions and processes and fosters more quality of democracy as well as key challenges to
analysis based sustainable, effective and legitimate democracy democracy such as the crisis of representation,
on the GSoD around the world. the increasing influence of money in politics,
rising inequalities, migration and democratic
indices shows
Support for democratic reform has become transitions in the wake of conflict.
an expansion of
more challenging since the founding of
democracy in all
International IDEA in 1995. In contrast The times we live in warrant a critical analysis
parts of
to the optimism of the 1990s, today’s of democracy’s strengths and weaknesses,
the world and democracy is influenced by the effects of and an open debate about what undermines
advances in key globalization, geo-political power shifts, the (and strengthens) democracy. As such, this
areas such as changing role and structure of (supra) national publication explores the health of the world’s
organizations and institutions, and the rise of democracies, acknowledging that many regions
representation,
modern communications technologies. These and countries have recently seen reversals or
fundamental
developments are complicated by the dynamics declines in the quality of their democracy.
rights, checks
of conflict and development, citizenship and When assessing the state of democracy from
on government
state sovereignty, and increasing inequalities and 1975 onwards, the global and regional trend
and political marginalization of groups of people within and analysis based on the GSoD indices shows
participation between societies. Some of these dynamics and an expansion of democracy in all parts of
related challenges have contributed to a widely the world and advances in key areas such as
expressed view, particularly in the mainstream representation, fundamental rights, checks on
media, that democracy is in decline. government and political participation. The
data indicate that the state of democracy at the
Against this backdrop, this publication analyses global level in the last decade has been one of
global and regional democracy trends and trendless fluctuations—showing upturns and
challenges based on International IDEA’s newly downturns in certain regions and individual
developed Global State of Democracy (GSoD) countries, but with no clearly visible tendencies
indices, which capture global and regional of progress or decline.
democratic trends between 1975 and 2015. In
an effort to bridge the gap between academic This publication acknowledges that challenges
research, policy development and democracy to democracy persist at the regional and country
assistance initiatives, it offers recommendations levels, but contests the current pessimistic view
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International IDEA
First Edition 2017 Preface
that democracy is fragile and in decline. Instead, improving it: every generation must safeguard
it argues that democracy continues to be in and reclaim democracy. This means that looking
demand and has shown resilient properties over towards the future, channelling all our efforts
time given the challenges that characterize the to achieve progress towards the Sustainable
21st century, thanks to its inherent qualities of Development Goals requires a broad-based
adaptation, recovery, flexibility and innovation. recognition of the fact that democracy is core
to (and a wider enabler of) the entire 2030
The analysis is based on International IDEA’s development agenda.
broad and inclusive definition of democracy,
which is underpinned by two fundamental I am grateful to all those who contributed
principles—popular control and political to making this first edition of The Global
equality. The Institute acknowledges that State of Democracy a reality. It is our hope at
there is no single and universally applicable International IDEA that this publication will
model of democracy, that democracy comes serve as a source of inspiration, reflection and
in multiple forms, and that these forms are guidance for a new generation committed to
in constant evolution. However, democracy’s making democracy stronger and more resilient.
advancement—and indeed its survival—is
never guaranteed. Democracy needs constant Yves Leterme
Secretary-General
care and protection, and there is no end to International IDEA
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The Global State of Democracy 2017
Acknowledgements Exploring Democracy’s Resilience
Acknowledgements
We thank everyone who has been involved in this first edition of The Global State
of Democracy. This publication has benefited from contributions made by many
individuals at International IDEA, and from the input of members of the Institute’s
partner organizations.
Publication team Trunk, Claudiu Tufis, Jorge Valladares, Sam van
Lina Antara, Armend Bekaj, Leigh Bennet, Diana der Staak and Samuel Williams.
Bologova, Nathalie Ebead, Rosinah Ismail-Clarke,
Mélida Jiménez, Rumbidzai Kandawasvika- International IDEA staff (Stockholm)
Nhundu, Brechtje Kemp, Naomi Malaki, Joseph Elizabeth Adu-Lowson, Anna-Carin Åhlén, Sead
Noonan, Victoria Perotti, Helena Schwertheim, Alihodzic, Tina Antai, Adam Boys, Alexandre
Adina Trunk, Catalina Uribe Burcher and Samuel Debrun, Nuno Durao, Elin Falguera, Maria Fe
Williams. Rundberg, Caroline Fox, Karin Gardes, Narda
Hansen, Albina Herodes, Rosinah Ismail-
Written contributions Clarke, Samuel Jones, Lumumba Juma, Frank
Zaid Al-Ali, Lina Antara, Armend Bekaj, Sumit Kayitare, Yves Leterme, Keboitse Machangana,
Bisarya, Helena Bjuremalm, Nathalie Ebead, Björn Magnusson, Naomi Malaki, Thomas
Alberto Fernandez, Mélida Jiménez, Rumbidzai McKean, Frank McLoughlin, Jonas Mikkelsen,
Kandawasvika-Nhundu, Brechtje Kemp, Gary Pola Mina, Gideon Nhundu, Bridget O’Sullivan,
Klaukka, Carrie Manning, Paul McDonough, Linnea Palm, Thiyumi Senarathna, Annika
Catalina Perdomo, Victoria Perotti, Sarah Polek, Silva-Leander, William Sjöstedt, Alexandra
Alina Rocha Menocal, Seema Shah, Timothy Walcher and Nikolaos Yannakakis.
Sisk, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Adina Trunk,
Catalina Uribe Burcher, Jorge Valladares and International IDEA staff (regional
Sam van der Staak. programmes and liaison offices)
Zaid Al-Ali, Adhy Aman, Andrew Bradley,
Research Alistair Clark, Marie Doucey, Sophia Fernandes,
Fletcher Cox, Joseph Noonan, Isabel Roberth, Shana Kaiser, Nana Kalandadze, Kieran
Helena Schwertheim and Samuel Williams. Lettrich, Nicolas Matatu, Gram Matenga, Sheri
Mayerhoffer, Mark McDowell, Percy Medina,
Background paper and case study Marilyn Neven, George Okong’o, Adebayo
contributions Olukoshi, Nyla Grace Prieto, Leena Rikkilä
Lina Antara, Armend Bekaj, Andrew Bradley, Tamang, Annamari Salonen, Pablo Schatz, Pilar
Fletcher Cox, Nathalie Ebead, Rose Iles Fealy, Tello, Massimo Tommasoli, Sam van der Staak,
Mélida Jiménez, Nana Kalandadze, Rumbidzai Daniel Zovatto and Kimana Zulueta-Fuelscher.
Kandawasvika-Nhundu, Gary Klaukka, Gram
Matenga, Leah Matthews, Sheri Mayerhoffer, International IDEA Communications
Percy Medina, Joseph Noonan, Victoria Perotti, and Knowledge Management Unit
Isabel Roberth, Helena Schwertheim, Seema Raul Cordenillo, Lisa Hagman, Fredrik Larsson,
Shah, Leena Rikkilä Tamang, Timothy Sisk, Tomas Spragg Nilsson, Olivia Nordell, David
Svend-Erik Skaaning, Martín Tanaka, Adina Prater, Lynn Simmonds and Tahseen Zayouna.
x