Table Of ContentDoomsday Demy - Louise edit 29/7/05 12:39 pm Page ii
Doomsday Demy - Louise edit 29/7/05 12:39 pm Page iii
t h e
D O O M S D A Y
b o o k
Scenarios for the
End of the World
Joel Levy
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First published in 2005 by Vision Paperbacks,
a division ofSatin Publications Ltd.
101 Southwark Street
London SE1 0JF
UK
[email protected]
www.visionpaperbacks.co.uk
Publisher:Sheena Dewan
© Joel Levy 2005
The right ofJoel Levy to be identified as the author of
the work has been asserted by him in accordance with
the Copyright,Designs and Patents Act of1988.
All rights reserved.No part ofthis publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any
means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or
otherwise,without prior written permission ofthe publisher.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British
Library.
ISBN:1-904132-67-7
2 4 6 8 10 9 7 5 3 1
Cover photo:Peter Lou/Rex Features
Cover and text design by ok?design
Printed and bound in the UK by
Mackays ofChatham Ltd,
Chatham,Kent
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To the Levy Family
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Contents
Introduction 1
Chapter 1: The Frankenstein Effect 7
The threat from nanotechnology 9
Pandemic 15
Superbugs 23
Rogue AI 27
Physics experiment gone wrong 31
Conclusion:Frankenstein’s monster unmasked 35
Chapter 2: Third World War 37
Apocalypse now? 39
Terror unlimited 46
Extremism and fundamentalism 51
Mass migrations 55
Conclusion:Peace for our time 59
Chapter 3: Ecocide 61
Poisoning the planet 64
The hydroxyl holocaust 79
Toxic time bomb 82
The parched Earth 90
The barren land 98
vii
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The coming famine 105
The starving ocean 114
Acid seas 120
Death ofthe wild 124
The aspiration bomb 134
Conclusion:Overshoot and ecocide 137
Chapter 4: Climate Change 141
Global warming 143
Waking the giants 171
A new Ice Age 177
Conclusion:Prepare for the worst 182
Chapter 5: Cataclysm 183
Comet and asteroid impacts 185
Super-volcano 197
Mega-tsunami 203
Reversal ofthe Poles 209
Cosmological catastrophes 213
Runaway stars and wandering black holes 218
Conclusion:The end ofthe world is nigh? 219
Conclusion 221
References 231
Index 237
About the Author 247
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Introduction
Hardly a day goes by without an article or news item about
the latest catastrophe to threaten civilisation.Climate change
is at the top of the agenda, but even a casual acquaintance
with the media over the last year will have exposed you to
alarming reports about pollution, declining soil fertility,
looming flu pandemics,disappearing fish,species threatened
with extinction,planet-killing asteroids and nuclear prolifer-
ation, among others. In particular, the 2004 Boxing Day
tsunami brought home the deadly power of nature and the
threat from geophysical disasters,sparking a flurry of interest
in related hazards such as super-volcanoes or island collapses
leading to mega-tsunami.
With headlines such as ‘Space rock threatens Earth’ or
‘Where will the next Big One strike?’on offer,it is hardly sur-
prising that newspapers struggle to restrain the sensationalist
doom-mongering. But they are not making this stuff up.
Scientists and,increasingly,the public are coming to realise that
disasters do strike,and in particular that civilisation has been
remarkably fortunate for millennia in avoiding catastrophe on
a global, extinction-threatening level. The history of civilisa-
tion has been characterised by a remarkably long period of
comparative climate stability (dubbed ‘The Long Summer’,by
the historian Brian Fagan),and no civilisation has ever had to
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The Doomsday Book
deal with a global-scale disaster. In fact the last time such an
event affected our species was 73,500 years ago,when a super-
volcano erupted in Indonesia.That cataclysm nearly wiped out
mankind,and concerned scientists are keen for policy-makers
to realise that similar threats – both natural and man-made –
are not confined to the prehistoric past or the distant future,
but pose a clear and present danger.
A million ways to die
The problem is that there seems to be so many dangers.Some
threaten to kill millions,others appear to endanger the exis-
tence of the entire planet. Some are purely hypothetical or
wildly improbable,others appear to be at our very doorstep.
It becomes a question of which doomsday scenario you
should fear the most.Which scenarios are likely to happen;
which will be genuinely catastrophic ifthey do come to pass;
and which ones might we be able to avert? These are the
questions this book seeks to answer, but those answers are
rarely straightforward.Theories are disputed and evidence is
contested. Even where there is a broad consensus there are
almost always sceptical voices raising valid issues.On top of
this,few of the doomsday threats exist in a vacuum: we can
affect the likelihood and/or impact ofmost ofthem through
our actions or inaction.
This book attempts to chart a course through this confused
territory,and to maintain an even keel in the face ofsqualls of
hyperbole and scepticism. Each section treats a specific
doomsday scenario, explaining the precise nature of the
threat,including if necessary the scientific background;what
the consequences would be ifthe scenario were realised;what
we can learn from history – such as how past civilisations
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Description:This entertaining yet serious book examines the probability of apocalyptic scenarios the world could face in the future. Exploring all types of disasters, including natural crises like flooding, famine, asteroids, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, as well as man-made disasters such as nuclear war
