techno-economic analysis and business feasibility study to portable polygeneration system for

92 Pages·2016·3.68 MB·English

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DEGREE PROJECT IN TECHNOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,
SECOND CYCLE, 30 CREDITS
STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 2016
TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
AND BUSINESS FEASIBILITY
STUDY TO PORTABLE
POLYGENERATION SYSTEM FOR
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
HAIKUO LIU
KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
SCHOOL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT

Techno-economic analysis and
business feasibility study to portable
polygeneration system for
construction industry

Haikuo Liu

Master of Science Thesis
KTH School of Industrial Engineering and Management
Energy Technology EGI_2016-046 MSC EKV1145
Division of Heat and Power Technology
SE-100 44 STOCKHOLM

Master of Science Thesis

EGI_2016-046 MSC EKV1145

Techno-economic analysis and business
feasibility study to portable polygeneration
system for construction industry

Haikuo Liu

Approved Examiner Supervisor
2016-08-22 Anders Malmquist Anders Malmquist
Aapo Sääsk
Commissioner Contact person

Abstract
Polygeneration technology is to utilize a single plant to offer multiple energy products, and the multiple
processes are integrated into one system. In comparison with the single-product technology, polygeneration
improves the system efficiency significantly since it has multiple outputs, and reduces the relevant capital
and production cost accordingly.
In this thesis, a polygeneration system was designed specifically for a project in construction industry and
the business feasibility of the system was analyzed. The status quo and problems of present temporary power
system were introduced and the idea of using polygeneration system as the substitute was described. A
substation project in Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia was utilized as the reference to design the polygeneration system
and to analyze the system’s technical and business feasibility. After the study of energy demand, 12 scenarios
were proposed based on the available energy sources and commercialized technologies in the market.
RETScreen 4 software was used to simulate proposed scenarios and relevant techno-economic discussion
and analysis of the results were made.
Based on “RETScreen 4” software’s simulation results, one optimized scenario was selected for the
polygeneration system design and business feasibility analysis. A polygeneration system with two
polygeneration sets were designed to meet energy demand of the reference project in this thesis. Considered
the technical and economic information of the designed system, a business feasibility analysis of the
polygeneration system for the construction industry was studied. As the last part of the thesis, a summary
of business plan was made to the designed system based on the results of market research and business
feasibility study.

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Sammanfattning
Polygenereringsteknik är att utnyttja en enda anläggning för att erbjuda flera energitjänster där multipla
processer är integrerade i ett gemensamt system. I jämförelse med separata tekniklösningar, förbättrar
polygenerering systemets effektivitet avsevärt eftersom flera tjänster produceras och kapital- och
produktionskostnadernadärmed minskar.
I denna avhandling har ett polygenereringssystem utformats speciellt för ett projekt i byggbranschen och
lämpligheten hos systemet har analyserats. Status quo och problem med nuvarande tillfälliga kraftsystemet
togs med i analysen och idén att använda polygenereringssystemet som substitut har beskrivits. Ett
ställverksprojekt i Al Kharj, Saudi Arabien användes som referens för att utforma polygenereringssystemet
och för att analysera systemets tekniska och affärsmässiga genomförbarhet. Efter studier av efterfrågan på
energi, har 12 scenarier föreslagits baserat på tillgängliga energikällor och kommersialiserade teknologier på
marknaden.
“RETScreen 4” programvaran användes för att simulera föreslagna scenarier och en teknisk-ekonomisk
diskussion och analys av resultaten gjordes. Baserat på RETScreen 4 programvarans simuleringsresultat, har
ett optimalt scenario valts för design av ett polygenereringsystem och en affärsgenomförbarhetsstudie har
utförts. Ett polygenereringssystem med två uppsättningar av polygenerernde subsystem har utformats för
att möta efterfrågan på energi hos referensprojektet i denna avhandling. Med hänsyn taget till de tekniska
och ekonomiska uppgifterna i det utformade systemet, har realiseringen av polygenereringssystemet för
byggindustrin studerats. Den sista delen av avhandlingen utgör en sammanfattning av affärsplanen för det
utformade systemet baserat på resultaten av marknadsundersökningar och en affärsförstudie.
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Acknowledgement
The author would like to give the sincere gratitude to Professor Anders Malmquist (KTH) and Mr. Aapo
Sääsk (Scarab Development AB) for the supervision to this thesis. The thesis’ preparation and production
also benefited from polygeneration research activities from “KIC Innoenergy”, “Renewable Energy
Programme”, and “STandUP for energy projects”.
The author would like to thank Al Kharj project team, Saudi Arabia Energy and Infrastructure Company
(EICO) and Mrs. Qixan Yang
The author would like to extend his gratitude to Professor Manuel Rubio (UCLV, Santa Clara, Cuba) and
Dr. Alaa Kullab (KTH) for their valuable help and guidance.
The author also would like to extend his gratitude to Scarab Development AB for its helps and feedbacks
on the AGMD technologies.
Haikuo Liu
Stockholm, August 2016

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Nomenclature
Notations and Abbreviations that are used in this Master thesis are listed as below.
Notations
Symbol Description
mS/cm milli-Siemens per centimeter (conductivity)
$ US dollar

Abbreviations

AC Air Conditioner
AGMD Air Gap Membrane Distillation
AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
AM Air Mass
APAC Asian and Pacific Coasts
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CHP Combined Heat and Power
COP Coefficient of Performance
CPV Concentration Photovoltaics
CPV/T Concentrating Photovoltaic Thermal System
CSP Concentrating Solar Power
CXM Customer Experience Management
DCMD Direct Contact Membrane Distillation
Dia. Diameter
EES Electrical Energy Storage
EICO Energy and Infrastructure Company
ENR Engineering News-Record
GDP Gross Domestic Product
Genset Generator Set
HCPV High Concentration Photovoltaics
ICE Internal Combustion Engine
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
LHV Low Heating Value
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LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
MD Membrane Distillation
MEA Middle East and Africa
MJSC Multijunction Solar Cells
MSW Municipal Solid Waste
MVP Minimum Viable Product
N/A Not Applicable
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
ORC Organic Rankie Cycle
PEFC Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells
PH Potential of Hydrogen
PTFE Polytetrafluoroethylene
Polyset Polygeneration Set
PV Photovoltaics
R&D Research and Development
RO Reverse Osmosis
SGMD Sweep Gas Membrane Distillation
SLFC Swim Lane Flowchart
SOFC Solid Oxide Fuel Cells
STS Solar Thermal System
S.W.O.T Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat
Temp. Temperature
TDS Total Dissolved Solids
TOC Total Organic Carbon
US United States
VMD Vacuum Membrane Distillation
WHO World Health Organization
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Table of Contents
Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2
Sammanfattning ............................................................................................................................................................. 3
Acknowledgement ......................................................................................................................................................... 4
Nomenclature ................................................................................................................................................................ 5
List of figures ............................................................................................................................................................... 10
List of tables ................................................................................................................................................................. 11
1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 12
1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................................12
1.2 Objective ....................................................................................................................................................13
1.3 Delimitations ..............................................................................................................................................13
1.4 Methodology ..............................................................................................................................................13
1.4.1 Polygeneration system design ........................................................................................................14
1.4.2 Market survey and interviews .........................................................................................................14
1.4.3 Business feasibility study and business plan ................................................................................14
2 Problem identification ....................................................................................................................................... 15
2.1 Diesel genset in construction industry ...................................................................................................15
2.2 Challenges and obstacles ..........................................................................................................................15
3 Energy demands on construction site ............................................................................................................. 16
3.1 Energy demands on construction site ...................................................................................................16
3.2 Energy demands of the project in Saudi Arabia ..................................................................................16
4 Available sources on project S site .................................................................................................................. 20
4.1 Solar and wind ...........................................................................................................................................20
4.2 Biomass .......................................................................................................................................................20
4.3 Water ...........................................................................................................................................................20
5 Portable polygeneration system proposal ....................................................................................................... 21
5.1 Initial polygeneration system for project S ...........................................................................................21
5.2 Polygeneration set generation proposal .................................................................................................22
5.3 Polygeneration set design overall proposal ...........................................................................................22
6 Technologies study ............................................................................................................................................ 24
6.1 Software introduction – RETScreen 4 ..................................................................................................24
6.2 Solar .............................................................................................................................................................25
6.2.1 Solar Photovoltaics ..........................................................................................................................25
6.2.2 Solar Thermal Energy .....................................................................................................................28
6.3 Wind ............................................................................................................................................................30
6.4 Biomass .......................................................................................................................................................30
6.5 Micro Combined Heat and Power technologies ..................................................................................30
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