Table Of Content“As a Global South leader committed to community-led structural change, I
highly recommend this book to my colleagues as well as to anyone seeking
a comprehensive understanding of the humanitarian sector. The historical
background, the contextual framework and the strategic planning tools that
it provides are invaluable to practitioners interested in making a meaningful
and systemic impact.”
Marie-Rose Romain Murphy, Co-Founder of
ESPWA and The Haiti Community Foundation; and President
of RMC-Romain Murphy Consulting, USA
“The authors artfully combine foresight theory and practical tools for design-
ing and implementing effective aid programmes. Fundamental reading for
both aid theorists and practitioners interested in innovation and transforma-
tive change, and an essential playbook for making humanitarian aid both
immediately impactful and future-ready.”
Christina Bennett, CEO Start Network, UK
“I welcome this new book by Michel Maietta and Eilidh Kennedy. It is truly
easy to understand and follow, and, more importantly, use. They give a gift
of relevance and accessibility. Clearly, a text and process all can benefit from
that can help create a transformed tomorrow.”
Sohail Inayatullah, Unesco Chair in Futures Studies, IIUM,
Malaysia; and Professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan
“The humanitarian ecosystem faces a period of real disruption. To help
humanitarian actors succeed and seize the opportunity for transformation,
the authors offer a pioneering and exciting toolbox mixing structural analy-
sis, scenarios and strategic planning. For the humanitarian sector, this book
will become a key reference for both practitioners and researchers.”
Philippe Ryfman, Honorary Professor, Pantheon-Sorbonne
University, France; and researcher and lawyer specialising on
the humanitarian sector and NGOs
“The flexibility of the approaches outlined in this book ensure its relevance
for all actors involved in development work, particularly LGBTI – often
left behind. The guidance for how to implement strategic foresight projects
virtually makes it all the more pertinent in a post-Covid 19 world.”
Vincent Kyabayinze, Director, East Africa
Visual Artists (EAVA Artists); and LGBTI activist, Uganda
“Thoughtful, insightful and practical book; essential reading for aid and
development professionals in the ever-changing world.”
Anika Krstic, Country Director, Plan International, Sudan
“The manual you have in your hands gives you the keys to foundational
strategic foresight approaches and methods adapted for humanitarian actors.
Using these approaches you can create transformative narratives and build
resilient strategies with communities. Eilidh and Michel have tested, piloted
and implemented these tools in multiple settings, combining high profes-
sional standards with accessibility and commitment.”
François Bourse, Director of studies, Futuribles, France
“The use of foresight methodology for strategic planning involving our local
partners was instrumental for us as an ecosystem of actors to be impactful in
a very dynamic operational context! I am really happy to see the toolkit is
coming to the public domain for wider use and adoption in the humanitar-
ian sector.”
Nipin Gangadharan, Country Director,
Action Against Hunger Bangladesh
Strategic Planning in the
Humanitarian Sector
This book provides humanitarian practitioners and policy makers with a
manual for how to apply foresight and strategy in their work.
Drawing on extensive research, the book demonstrates in practical
terms how embedding futures-focused thinking into practice can
help humanitarian actors to enhance their impact and fit for the future.
The book provides readers with a step-by-step guide to an innovative
combination of tools and methods tested and refined over the course
of several years. However, it also goes beyond this, by grounding the
approach within the broader ambition of making humanitarian action
more effective. Overall, the analytical and strategic processes outlined
in this book will accompany a decision maker through every stage of
creating a robust, agile and impactful long-term strategy.
This accessible guide will be an essential point of reference for
practitioners and decision makers in the humanitarian ecosystem, as well
as students studying humanitarian affairs, global development, conflict
studies and international relations.
Eilidh Kennedy is Co-Founder and Director of the Inter-Agency
Research and Analysis Network (IARAN). She has more than ten
years’ experience working with humanitarian actors providing trainings,
research, foresight analysis and supporting strategic development.
Michel Maietta is Co-Founder and Director of the Inter-Agency
Research and Analysis Network (IARAN). He has two decades of
experience in high-profile, strategic leadership, and has developed and
turned around multiple start-ups, programmes and operations in the
humanitarian and development sector.
Strategic Planning in the
Humanitarian Sector
A Manual to Foresight and
Futures-Focused Thinking
Eilidh Kennedy and Michel Maietta
First published 2022
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2022 Eilidh Kennedy and Michel Maietta
The right of Eilidh Kennedy and Michel Maietta to be identified as authors
of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and
78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or
registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record has been requested for this book
ISBN: 978-0-367-55697-6 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-0-367-55696-9 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-09475-3 (ebk)
DOI: 10.4324/9781003094753
Typeset in Bembo
by Deanta Global Publishing Services, Chennai, India
This book is dedicated to all the jellyfish
Contents
List of figures xi
List of tables xiii
Foreword xv
Preface xvii
Acknowledgements xix
Abbreviations xx
1 Strategic foresight for transformation 1
2 Embracing uncertainty with foresight 20
3 Developing a strategy for effective change 47
4 A toolkit for humanitarian action 79
Scoping Workshop 82
PESTLE 94
Architecture 100
Importance/Uncertainty Matrix (MIU) 107
Morphological Scenarios 117
Matrix Scenarios 126
Driver Files 137
Actors File 141
Influence/Dependency Matrix (MID) 146
Writing scenarios 163
The Strategy Tree 170
Actor/Objective Matrix (MAO) 181
Testing 195
