Strategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry

259 Pages·2013·5.822 MB·English

by  Tugrul Daim, Dilek Cetindamar, Berna Beyhan (auth.), Dilek Cetindamar, Tugrul Daim, Berna Beyhan, Nuri Basoglu (eds.)

Strategic Planning Decisions in the
High Tech Industry
Dilek Cetindamar Tugrul Daim
•
Berna Beyhan Nuri Basoglu
•
Editors
Strategic Planning
Decisions in the
High Tech Industry
123
Editors
DilekCetindamar Berna Beyhan
School ofManagement Science,Technology andPolicy Center
Sabanci University METU
Istanbul Ankara
Turkey Turkey
TugrulDaim Nuri Basoglu
Engineering andTechnology Management Management Information Systems
Portland StateUniversity Bog˘aziçi University
Portland Istanbul
USA Turkey
ISBN 978-1-4471-4886-9 ISBN 978-1-4471-4887-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-4887-6
SpringerLondonHeidelbergNewYorkDordrecht
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013931272
(cid:2)Springer-VerlagLondon2013
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Contents
1 Strategic Planning Decisions: An Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Tugrul Daim, Dilek Cetindamar, Berna Beyhan and Nuri Basoglu
2 No Escape from the Dominant Theories: The Analysis
of Intellectual Pillars of Technology Management in
Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Berna Beyhan and Dilek Cetindamar
3 Ontology- and Function-Based Technology Model for Decision
Making in New Product Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Stefanie Bunzel, Joachim Warschat, Dieter Spath
and Antonino Ardilio
4 Strategic Foresight Methodology to Identifying Business
Opportunities and Technology Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
David Güemes-Castorena and Juan L. Amezcua-Martínez
5 Strategic Planning for Research-Intensive Institutions:
An Approach Towards Identifying the Most Attractive
Path for Technology Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Antonino Ardilio, Joachim Warschat and Dieter Spath
6 Platform Emergence in Double Unknown (Technology, Markets):
Common Unknown Strategy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
Olga Kokshagina, Pascal Le Masson, Benoit Weil
and Patrick Cogez
7 Imovator’s Dilemma: How to Decide When to be Offensive
and When to be Defensive?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Türkay Dereli and Koray Altun
v
vi Contents
8 Technology Acquisition by Collaboration: A Conceptual
Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Victor G. Ortiz-Gallardo, David Probert and Robert Phaal
9 Decision Making for New Technology: A Multi-Actor,
Multi-Objective Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Scott W. Cunningham and Telli E. van der Lei
10 Evaluating and Communicating the Value of Technology:
Concept and Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Clare Farrukh, Rob Phaal, Letizia Mortara and David Probert
11 The Role of Policy Intervention for Technology Management:
The Case of Swedish Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Technology . . . . . . 203
Thomas Magnusson and Annika Rickne
12 Utilizing Risk Analysis and Scenario Planning
for Technology Roadmapping. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
Yuya Kajikawa, Yasunori Kikuchi, Yasuhiro Fukushima
and Michihisa Koyama
13 Application of Six Sigma Methodology and Use of Data
in Decision Making in the Fixed Line Planning Process. . . . . . . . 245
Gordan Krcˇelic´, Siniša Štifanic´ and Milan Meden
Chapter 1
Strategic Planning Decisions:
An Overview
Tugrul Daim, Dilek Cetindamar, Berna Beyhan and Nuri Basoglu
Who would have thought 10 years ago that Apple would be a phone company or
evenamusiccompany?Aswearewitnessinganothertechnologicaldiscontinuity,
once again we realize the importance of making informed decisions in the high-
tech industry. This book provides a snapshot of the tools being developed to
address the uncertainty induced by technological discontinuities.
This chapter precisely explores specific decisions with different applications
documented in the literature. We will review three major topics that transform
strategic planning into actionable decisions in technology-driven organizations:
technology planning, technology evaluation, and technology diffusion (Fig. 1.1).
1.1 Technology Planning
Everything starts with a plan. Phaal et al. [1] provide a very simple but effective
tool for technology planning: technology roadmaps. The use of roadmaps, espe-
cially technology roadmaps, is widely used in the industry and in government
T.Daim(&)
EngineeringandTechnologyManagement,PortlandStateUniversity,
SWFourth,Portland97201,USA
e-mail:[email protected]
D.Cetindamar
FacultyofManagement,SabanciUniversity,Tuzla,34956Istanbul,Turkey
B.Beyhan
InstituteforInnovationandEntrepreneurship,SchoolofBusiness,EconomicsandLaw,
GothenburgUniversity,Gothenburg,Sweden
N.Basoglu
ManagementInformationSystems,BogaziciUniversity,HisarCampus,Bebek,
34342Istanbul,Turkey
e-mail:[email protected]
D.Cetindamaretal.(eds.),StrategicPlanningDecisionsintheHigh 1
TechIndustry,DOI:10.1007/978-1-4471-4887-6_1,
(cid:2)Springer-VerlagLondon2013
2 T.Daimetal.
Fig.1.1 Strategicplanning
Strategic Plans
decisionframeworkinthe
high-techindustry
o Technology
o Planning
Decision
o Technology Criteria and
Methodology
o Evaluation
o Technology
o Diffusion
Decision
organizations. They are used for the basic technology planning function: linking
organizational strategic goals to research and development investment decisions
while also communicating these linkages visually [2]. The process starts with
identificationoftheinternalandexternalforcesimpactingthegoalsandstrategies
of the organization as well as documentation of its vision. Next, organization’s
current capabilities in terms of products or services are documented. The process
helps identify the gaps between the current capabilities and the vision of the
organization at product/service, technology, and research and development levels
by linking all of these levels. Rinne [3] expanded the concept to multiple
dimensions to help with identifying those opportunities which may not be iden-
tified as goals yet.
Mapping internal and external activities provides an insight into forces at play
for any given sector. Phaal et al. [4] introduced a framework for mapping.
Technologyplanningusesseveralinputsincludingtheassessmentoftechnologies,
which we will discuss in the following section. Thorn et al. [5] demonstrated a
practical application of technology valuation. Martin and Daim [6] building upon
Gerdsri’s[7]approachoftechnologydevelopmentenvelope,introducedvaluation
of technologies for service-oriented sectors. Gerdsri et al. [8, 9] emphasized the
importance of getting organized for the activity of technology planning including
functionsrangingfromtechnologyroadmappingtoprioritization.Theyimplythat
you should match the tools with an organizational structure including project
1 StrategicPlanningDecisions 3
Product/Service Area : ELECTRONICS TNeocrhthnwoelosgt yE nReoragdym Eaffpiciency
SSlleeeepp MMooddee TTeecchhnnoollooggyy RRooaaddmmaapp
Retain
PrPoedrufocrtm/Saenrvciece Rpreesfperoennscivees to user needs and Minitneirmacatli ouns errequired cpInortonedfgiurgacuttri oasttnia oonnfds sblye espo fmtwoadree aapnpdl ihcaartdiowna wrei th iCnateplalibgielintyc eto
GAP restore to full
functionality
Require sleep mode features that reduce
PrPoedrufocrtm/Saenrvciece eiOmxppptieamrciitezsne wc seilteheopu tm doedger aednienrgg uyser 6bR5ae%sdeu rlcienelea otivveer atoll "eanlewragyys u osne" b y energy usage by 90% (ST-MT)
GOAL Work with manufacturing community as in
trade associations and interest groups
Sleep-mode chip or
User–sensing and user- Sleep mode more responsive to late Google APP to reset equivalent design standard
aware controls night network admin. updated sleep mode
Preset sleep mode to energy
Technology Video games with sleep mode efficiency best practices
are also losing score
Software compatibility
with stand-by modes
R&D for Video games
with sleep mode are also
losing score Accessible and simple
User sensing controls – 70 interface controls 76
underway @ TV mfgs,
PrRog&rDam hncooolwtl aaebcvocerera sttshioiibsnl eR &foDr is Oinptetirmfaiczee user Ncoemtwpourtke rm naentawgoermksent for sStoafntwd-abrye mcoomdpesatibilitywith75
73
R&D for Sleep mode more Understand how users might
Behavior economics for how responsive to late night use EGiPC(?)
people use devices 82 network admin. updated 68 New gap not scored
Performance Gap Current Technology Technology Gap(R&D need) Priority Score of R&D Gap
Performance Goal Current R&D(R&D underway) R&D Gap (No known R&D) # (Max=100)
Fig.1.2 AnextractfromtheUSNWenergyefficiencytechnologymap
teams.Fenwicketal. [10]arguedthattechnologyroadmappingistheplatformthat
integrates all planning activities ranging from marketing to engineering. They
matched different planning tools to different components of the technology
roadmapping process. Abe [11] also demonstrated a similar integrated approach.
Lee and Park [12] presented how we can customize our approach. Petrick and
Echols [13] also showed us how we can make better product development deci-
sions with approaches like roadmapping.
Technology planning is not required solely in the product or service organi-
zationsbutinmanydiversesectors suchasenergyandgovernment.Accordingto
Amer and Daim [14] roadmaps are widely used in renewable energy sector.
Several studies have provided applications which can easily be duplicated in
practice. These include applications in bio fuels [15], electricity (Fig. 1.2, [16,
17]), government policies [18], automotive [19], semiconductors [20], materials
[21],nationalplanningandforesight[22–24],generalscienceandtechnology[25],
and corporate foresight [26].
Manyemphasizetheimportanceofidentificationofdiscontinuitieswhichreally
makesitchallengingtomanagetechnologies.References[27–29]providevarying
methods to identify discontinuities.
4 T.Daimetal.
1.2 Technology Evaluation
Technology planning sets a goal and a roadmap to reach that goal. However,
further due diligence is required to detail the actions to be made around tech-
nologies. That requires evaluation of technologies for multiple purposes. The
strategic goals need to be translated into required technologies. Current capabili-
tiesneedtobematchedagainsttheserequirementstoidentifythegaps.Candidate
technologiesneedtobeidentifiedandevaluatedtoaddressthesegaps.Evaluations
arenotbasedontechnicalcriteriaonly;social,economic,andotherorganizational
perspectives are also evaluated with varying methods. Tran and Daim [30] pro-
videdaclassificationofthesemethods.Theiranalysisshowedthatapplicationsin
government and business differed from each other while methods used also
changedovertime.Themainreasonisthatbusinessorganizationsareinterestedin
maximizing their profits while government organizations have many goals
including society and environment focused ones. Daim and Kocaoglu [31] dis-
covered that businesses in electronics manufacturing evaluated technologies with
the goal of either increase in sales or improvement of operational efficiency.
Technology evaluation is not based on technical aspects only, as mentioned
above. There are several non-technical perspectives that need to be taken during
evaluation.Manyofthem,includingsocialorpoliticalperspectives,requireexpert
judgment and quantification of those judgments. Methods addressing these per-
spectives include analytical hierarchy process, analytical network process, and
hierarchical decision models (Fig. 1.3). Iskin et al. [32] applied analytic net-
working process to evaluate the impact of economic and other non technical
aspectsonrenewableenergy.Daimetal.[33]integratedfuzzydelphiandanalytic
hierarchyprocessestogethertoevaluatetechnologiesacrossmultipleperspectives.
Such models have been applied in evaluation of offshore wind turbine designs
Fig.1.3 Ahierarchicaldecisionmodelforevaluatingheatingfuel
1 StrategicPlanningDecisions 5
[34], renewable energy technologies in Pakistan [35]; energy resources in China
[36], and renewable energy in the Pacific Northwest [37, 38].
Evaluationneedstobebalancedwithbuildingportfoliossinceevaluationrates
alternatives across different criteria while portfolios balance these criteria.
Examples of such applications include hydroelectric power and storage portfolio
[39] and renewable energy portfolio [40].
While it is important to understand the current capabilities and impact of
technologies,foreseeingtheirfutureisalsoessentialsincenaturallynoonewould
liketoinvestinatechnologywhichwillbeobsoletesoon.Technologyforecasting
is the general name given to methods which help explore the evolution of tech-
nologies into the future. Methodologies range considerably in this area as well.
Kim et al. [41] used regression analysis to forecast wireless technologies while
Anderson et al. [42] used mathematical programming, specifically data envelop-
mentanalysisforthesamepurpose.AsDaimetal. [43]emphasized,itisusefulto
use multiple methods so that further insight could be attained as we are really
looking into the future which is not an easy task at all.
Exploring future requires intelligence on trends. Many indicators are used for
this purpose; inventors [44], patents [45–48] and publications [49].
Growth curves, or ‘‘S’’ curves as they are commonly called, are also widely
used for forecasting technologies [50, 51].
1.3 Technology Diffusion
One of the critical elements in planning and evaluating technologies is the com-
prehension of potential transfer and diffusion of technologies. Many studies
explored technology transfer in different organizations. Anderson et al. [52] and
Kim et al. [53] explored university technology transfer and identified efficiency
differences among universities and potential causes for that. Daim and Kocaoglu
[54] studied the technology acquisition in different geographies and identified
commonalities and differences in approaches.
While acquisition and transfer are planned technology transitions, there are
other dynamics that we cannot control 100 % but try to influence. The main
dynamic is the adoption of technologies by users. Many studied this in different
sectorsandprovidedverypracticaltools.Sectorsandapplicationincludewireless
devices in health care [55], diet software [56] online flight reservation systems
[57], and enterprise resource planning (Fig. 1.4, [58, 59]).
1.4 Book Content
The chapters of this book provide examples of technology planning, evaluation,
and diffusion.