Table Of ContentOTHER PUGWASH PUBLICATIONS 
Preventing the Spread of Nuclear Weapons (C. F. Barnaby, ed., Souvenir 
Press, 1968) 
Implications  of  Anti-Ballistic  Missile  Systems  (C.  F.  Barnaby  and 
A. Boserup, eds, Souvenir Press, 1969) 
Impact of New Technologies on the Arms Race (B. T. Feld, T. Greenwood, 
G.  W.  Rathjens and  S.  Weinberg,  eds,  The Massachusetts Institute of 
Technology, 1971) 
J.  Rotblat, Scientists in the Quest for Peace:  a History of the Pugwash 
Conferences (The MIT Press, 1972) 
Pugwash on Self-Reliance (W. K. Chagula, B. T. Feld and A. Parthasarathi, 
eds, Ankur Publishing House, 1977) 
A New Design for Nuclear Disarmament (W. Epstein and T. Toyoda, eds, 
Spokesman, 1977) 
International Arrangements for Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing (A. Chayes and 
W. Bennett Lewis, eds, Ballinger, 1977) 
Feeding Africa (Pan-African Pugwash Group, 1978) 
The Dangers of Nuclear War (F. Griffiths and J. C. Polanyi, eds, University 
of Toronto Press, 1979) 
Appropriate Technology and Social Values (F. A. Long and A. Oleson, eds, 
Ballinger, 1980) 
New Directions in Disarmament (W. Epstein and B. T. Feld, eds, Praeger, 
1981) 
European Security,  Nuclear Weapons and Public Confidence  (W.  Gut 
teridge, ed., Macmillan, 1982) 
Scientists, the Arms Race and Disarmament (J. Rotblat, ed., Taylor and 
Francis, 1982) 
Proceedings of the First Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs 
(J. Rotblat, ed., Pugwash Council, 1982) 
The Dangers of New Weapon Systems (W. Gutteridge and T. Taylor, eds, 
Macmillan, 1983) 
The Arms Race at a Time of Decision: Annals of Pugwash 1983 (J. Rotblat 
and A. Pascolini, eds, Macmillan, 1984) 
Nuclear Strategy and World Security: Annals of Pugwash 1984 (J. Rotblat 
and S. Hellman, eds, Macmillan, 1985)
World  Peace  and  the  Developing  countries:  Annals  of Pugwash  1985 
(J. Rotblat and U. D'Ambrosio, eds, Macmillan, 1986) 
Strategic Defences and the Future of the Arms Race: A Pugwash Symposium 
(J. Holdren and J. Rotblat, eds, Macmillan, 1987) 
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STRATEGIC  DEFENCES 
AND  THE  FUTURE  OF 
THE ARMS  RACE 
A  Pugwash Symposium 
Edited by 
JOHN HOLDREN 
Professor of Energy and Resources 
University of California, Berkeley 
Chairman, US Pugwash Group 
and 
JOSEPH ROTBLAT 
Emeritus Professor of Physics 
University of London 
Chairman, British Pugwash Group 
Foreword by Lord Zuckerman 
M 
PALGRAVE 
MACMILLAN
© Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs 1987 
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission 
of this publication may be made without written permission. 
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied 
or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance 
with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended). 
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to 
this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and 
civil claims for damages. 
First published 1987 
Published by 
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD 
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS 
and London 
Companies and representatives 
throughout the world 
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data 
Strategic defences and the future of the 
arms race: a Pugwash symposium). 
1. Strategic Defense Initiative 
I. Holdren, John  II. Rotblat, Joseph 
Ill. Pugwash (Peace movement) 
358' .8'0973  UG743 
ISBN 978-0-333-44874-8  ISBN 978-1-349-18675-4 (eBook) 
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-18675-4
Contents 
Foreword: Lord Zuckerman  Vll 
Preface: Editors  lX 
Notes on the Contributors  XV 
Acronyms  xviii 
PART ONE: THE PUG WASH SYMPOSIUM 
1 Pugwash Executive  Strategic Defences: Technological  3 
Committee  Aspects; Political and Military 
Implications 
2 John Holdren  The Pugwash Symposium on Strategic  11 
Defences: An Overview. 
PART TWO: TECHNOLOGICAL ASPECTS 
3 Roald Sagdeev and  Space-Strike Arms and International  37 
Andrei Kokoshin  Security 
4 Alexander Flax  What is SDI?  80 
5 Denis Hall  Lasers for Ballistic Missile Defence  87 
An Update 
6 George Hutchinson  Software Aspects of SDI  92 
7 Ashton Carter  ASATandBMD  96 
PART THREE: STRATEGIC AND POLITICAL ASPECTS 
8 Raymond Garthoff  Strategic Defences and United  105 
States-Soviet Relations 
9 Evgenii Velikhov  Weaponisation of Space  115 
10 Rudolf Peierls  What Would be the Benefits of SDI if  119 
Successful? 
11 John Beckman  Star Wars: Defensive Shield or First Strike  123 
Capability?
PART FOUR: THE EUROPEAN DIMENSION 
12 Rip Bulkeley  Missile Defence in NATO Europe  131 
13 Lawrence Freedman  British Attitudes on SDI  143 
14 Klaus Gottstein  The Debate on SDI in the Federal  151 
Republic of Germany 
15 Elmar Schmiihling  Prospects and Possible Consequences for  162 
Defence in Central Europe 
16 Caesar Voute  War or Peace in Space? The European  166 
Dilemma 
17 Bhupendra Jasani  EUREKA-How much of a European SDI?  171 
18 John Polanyi  NORAD and the SDI-A Canadian View  179 
19 John Pike  Barriers to Allied Participation in SDI  184 
PART FIVE: LEGAL ASPECTS AND SPECIFIC PROPOSALS 
20 Abram Chayes  Interpretations of the ABM Treaty  201 
21  Horst Fischer  The Military Use of Space and the  204 
International Legal System 
22 Maxwell Bruce  Legal Rules for Space  216 
23 Martin Kaplan  On the Question of 'Research' in the  220 
Strategic Defence Initiative and the 
ABMTreaty 
24 Alexander Flax  Limited ASAT  Treaties in relation to  223 
the ABM Treaty 
25  Donald Hafner and  An Arms Control Proposal Limiting  226 
Bhupendra Jasani  High-Altitude ASAT Weapons 
26 John Beckman  Resume of the Discussion on Strategic  240 
Defences 
APPENDICES 
A  Text of ABM Treaty  255 
B  Text of Outer Space Treaty  268 
C  List of Participants in the Symposium  275 
Index  278
Foreword 
Lord  Zuckerman 
It  is  ironical  that  the  speculation  which  still  clouds  the 
outcome of the Reykjavik  summit of October 1986  should  make 
the appearance of this Pugwash monograph even more opportune 
than it had already  promised to be.  The  book  does  not  delve 
into  the  technological  problems  on  whose  solution  the  future 
of  President  Reagan's  Strategic  Defence  Initiative  depends. 
But it is  undoubtedly unique in the breadth of its sweep, and 
in  the  way  it  deals  with  the  strategic,  legal,  and  political 
implications  of  the  President's  dream,  as  seen  through 
American,  European and  Russian eyes.  What  is  worth  noting, 
too,  is that most of the essays which make up the volume were 
written  by  people  who  have  been  officially  involved  in  their 
respective  countries  in  the  elaboration  of  policies  that 
impinge  on  the  nuclear  arms  race.  The  result  is  a  sophisti 
cated account,  free  from  polemic,  of the  major obstacles  that 
now  impede progress in arms-control  negotiations between the 
two  superpowers. 
Clearly  the  most  important  is  the  clash  between  the 
President's  belief  that  it  is  worth  spending  billions  of 
dollars,  over  what  may  be  decades,  to  devise  a  space-based 
defensive  system that  would  be  able  to  destroy  all  warheads 
aimed  at  the  United  States,  and  Mr  Gorbachev's  conviction 
that  however  laudable  its  aim,  SDI  is  not  only  technically 
unachievable  but,  more  important,  that  its  pursuit  will 
inevitably  drive  the  nuclear  arms  race  into  space.  The  view 
of the  majority  of  uncommitted  scientists  and  engineers,  not 
only  in  the  United  States  but  in  the  world  over,  and  of  a 
sizeable  proportion  of  the  American  Congress  as  well  as  of 
its  Office  of  Technology  Assessment,  is  that  the  Russian 
leader  has  a  more  realistic  appreciation  of  the  techni 
calities  than  has  the  President.  Whether  nuclear  warheads 
become space weapons in defiance of the Outer Space Treaty of 
1967 and the ABM Treaty of 1972, will therefore now depend on 
the wisdom and caution of both  leaders  in  the  months ahead. 
Nuclear  weapons  are  not  instruments  that  can  help  settle 
- vii -
viii  FOREWORD 
disputes between good guys and bad guys.  However a nuclear 
exchange were initiated,  both sides would be running the risk 
of  extermination.  Moreover,  as  the  monograph  makes  plain, 
weapons  designated  as  defensive  can  also  be  used  in  an 
offensive  role.  Indeed,  space  platforms  from  which  nuclear 
fire could  be directed at enemy  targets were one of the many 
ideas  for  strategic nuclear systems that were  being  discussed 
in  the  United  States as  far  back  as  the late  fifties.  What  we 
dare  not  forget  now  is  that  the  continued  and  unnecessary 
elaboration  of  nuclear  arsenals  adds  increasing  emphasis  to 
the  fact  that  they  lack  any  precise  military  utility.  They 
can  deter.  They  can  destroy.  But  their  use  cannot  be 
con trolled. 
Unless  the deadlock  in  arms-control negotiations  is  broken, 
and  broken  soon,  Reykjavik  is  a  warning  that  the  stabilit~ 
that  prevails  so  precariously  in  the  nuclear  arena  is  bound 
to  be shattered.  That is  something  which  concerns all of us, 
not just the  two  superpowers.  It is  to  be  hoped,  therefore, 
that  the  views  and  ideas  ventilated  in  this  monograph  will 
help  point a  way  from  the potential horror towards  which  the 
nuclear arms  race is  driving  us all. 
October 1986
Preface 
In  the interval  between  the Pugwash  Symposium on  Strategic 
Defences in London on 5-8 December 1985 and the completion of 
this  volume  based  on  that  meeting,  much  has  happened  but 
little  has  changed.  Formal  agreements  to  cooperate  in 
research on strategic defence have been concluded between the 
government  of  the  United  States  and  those  of  the  United 
Kingdom,  the  Federal  Republic  of  Germany,  and  Israel;  the 
Reagan  Administration's Fiscal Year  (FY)  1987  budget request 
has  sought an  80  per cent increase of funds for the Strategic 
Defence  Initiative  over  those  authorised  in  FY1986;  the 
explosion  of  the  space  shuttle  Challenger  and  the  reactor 
accident at Chernobyl have  provided  painful reminders of the 
fragility  of complex  technologies  in  East and  West  alike;  and 
a  flurry  of  arms-control  proposals,  counter-proposals,  and 
pronouncements  from  the  Soviet  Union  and  the  United  States 
have alternately raised and lowered  hopes that a  new phase of 
the arms  race can  be avoided. 
Even as  the Symposium was taking place in early December, 
Her  Majesty's  Government  was  signing  the  agreement  to 
collaborate  formally  with  the  United  States  in  research  on 
strategic  defence.  Similar  agreements  with  the  Federal 
Republic of Germany and  with  Israel were soon  to follow,  and 
others  with  Italy  and  Japan  are  thought  to  be  imminent.  As 
John  Pike  points  out  in  his  paper  ( pp.184-97),  the  signifi 
cance of these agreements as symbols of solidarity  in  defence 
issues  is  likely  to  exceed  their  importance  as  conduits  of 
funds  or  major  technological  cooperation.  Indeed,  the 
expectation  that  these  agreements  will  result  in  large 
contracts  is  far  from  being  fulfilled.  Talks  of  $1.5  billion 
worth  of  work  in  the  UK  turned  out  to  be  completely 
unfounded;  the contracts already  signed or soon  to be placed 
amount  to  a  total  of  about  $25  million,  most  of  this  to 
government establishments. In the FRG the contracts announced 
so far amount to about $30  million. 
The  Reagan  administration's  request  for  $5.4  billion  in 
- ix  -