SPECIAL ISSUE OUR 2062 WORLD ALMANAC - Pamela Weintraub

68 Pages·2012·14.7 MB·English

SPECIAL ISSUE OUR 2062 WORLD ALMANAC
®
Science, Technology, and The Future
THE
END OF
YOUTH
An aging world is challenging
medical science—and turning
society upside down.
IMMORTALITY
WITHIN
A DECADE?
p. 60
ONE SECOND
POPULATION
AFTER THE
BOOM GOES BUST
BIG BANG
p. 30 p. 72
INTERVIEW
HOW SEX RATIO
WITH A HOBBIT
CHANGES HUNTER
p. 18
EVERYTHING
p. 56
OCTOBER 2012
10
S.
PLUS U.
9
The Math of Urban Collapse p. 52 5.9
$
Waging War on Dementia p. 48
0 74470 01372 3
A Brain Bank for Retirees p. 51 DISCOVERMAGAZINE.COM
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SPECIAL ISSUE: tHE FUTURE OF POPULATION
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100,000 Years the Aging Brain 48 recipe for
SPECIAL
immortality 60
of Population 30 A psychologist takes a voyage inside
SECTION
the brain to explore the shocking things Science nearly has the tools to end aging.
Throughout human history, population
growth has spurred cultural evolution. DISCOVER that happen as we grow older. A leading geneticist and a veteran
A look at five case studies—and a preview Almanac By Robert Epstein journalist show the ways it could happen.
of what happens at “peak population.” 2062 q&a: the physics By George Church and Ed Regis
By Michael Balter
of cities 52
A Love Supreme 64
Geoffrey West abandoned particle physics
What will
gray tsunami 32 to explore the hidden mathematical laws NEW FICTION: In tomorrow’s America,
the world be like
that govern animals, trees, and cities. elites cheat death while middle class
The world faces a wave of aging, and in 50 years?
with it wrenching social and economic We explore the trends By Veronique Greenwood people confront a harsher reality.
changes. An Arizona retirement of that vibrant By Kathleen Ann Goonan
sex ratio 56
community hints at things to come. and worrisome time.
By Linda Marsa Decoded: How the constantly shifting ABOVE: Day to night at the New York
PLUS: donors against dementia 51 37 ratio of marriage-age men to women Public Library, by Stephen Wilkes.
The world’s best-preserved brains. shapes (and reshapes) the world. ON thE COVEr:
By Jeff Wheelwright By Robert Epstein Illustration by tim O’Brien
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C O L U M N S A N D D E P A R T M E N T S O C T O b E R 2 0 1 2
Data 6 Notes from Earth 70
Mail 4
A roving seismic survey of North
The medical marvel America is revealing our continent’s
Editor’s Note 5
of fecal transplants, innards—and providing hints of the
East Coast’s shaky future.
Hot Science 20 a look inside the By Emily Elert
The design genius of Bel Geddes, and top-secret lab that
the return of J.J. Abrams to TV.
protects America’s Out There 72
Destination: A materials scientist
Cosmologists can retrace the
livestock, recreating
tours the Statue of Liberty.
history of the universe back to mere
Calendar: Our new monthly overview a dying star in New
seconds after the Big Bang. Now
of the top science events.
Mexico, a journey into a they are pushing even closer to the
beginning of time.
hobbit cave, why
By Sean Carroll
pg 23 the United States does
not need more
scientists, a giant leaf
pg 80
bug, and more.
pg 8
Vital Signs 26
A woman returns from Africa with
bizarre lesions. Is the culprit a tropical
disease, or something closer to home?
By Claire Panosian Dunavan
Impatient Futurist 28
Drones aren’t just for war anymore. o;
ot
Smaller versions could soon be h
akBecyec Dpeasinvsgiidb a leHn .t eoFy reael elo,d ndm ethalivnee nrienigg htabcoorhso oord . 2KBy0n C oTowrheyi AnS.b gPooswu Yetlol Cua Drisd n8’0t courtesy Liberty science center; MicheL Gunther/biospeverett coLLection
DISCOVER SEE IT
MAGAZINE RIGHT NOW AT
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COM DISCOVERMAGAZINE.COM
“
“If we’re running out of oil, that also means that we’re
Graphene Can Repair Itself
discovermagazine.com/web/graphene
running out of oil-based plastic. Landfills will turn into
gold mines. The easiest way to get the material will Plants Use Fungi to Digest Insects by Proxy
discovermagazine.com/web/fungi
eventually be to dig up trash and reuse it.”
The Galaxy That Shouldn’t Be There
Debbie Chachra, materials scientist, Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering
discovermagazine.com/web/galaxy
The Crux discovermagazine.com/web/plastic
2
DISCOVER
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MAIL
Invisible Intrigue
Chromatic Wonders lives. We basically inhabit oth- I was amazed by your story
Many people are familiar with er people’s bodies and suffer about microbes in the home.
color blindness, but DISCOVER with them for a short time. I Can you imagine what there
staff writer Veronique Green- wonder if these experiments might be in a restaurant?
wood introduced readers to a could lead to treatments for Fred Kuch
woman who can see millions people who have little or no Las Vegas, NV
July/August
more colors than the rest of us empathy, like sociopaths.
(“Super Human Vision,” page Lori Shields You can’t just leave us hanging:
2012 29). Neuroscientist Gabriele Salt Lake City, UT How does fecal matter get on
Jordan believes there are pillowcases? Norma Frank
many more of these so-called Canine Intelligence Bryn Mawr, PA
tetrachromats. Behaviorist Stanley Coren’s
I have a very strong suspicion analysis of dog psychology Dunn responds: We have
that I am a tetrachromat. As (“Inner Lives of Dogs,” page heard that a relatively high
an artist and designer, I’ve 66) inspired many letters ques- frequency of nakedness goes on
always been frustrated by the tioning the neural capabilities in bedrooms, so pillows likely
insufficient number of colors of man’s best friend. bear witness to a great number
available in fabric and paint Coren rightly points out that of opportunities for the spread
stores. Diane Powell, M.D. dogs do not feel “higher” of microbes. We have never
Medford, OR emotions such as shame and tried to determine whether the
guilt, despite many owners pillows of those who are never
Send email to Greenwood responds: We who would say otherwise. We naked under their sheets are
[email protected]
received hundreds of letters cannot understand what guilt less like toilets. It just didn’t
from readers who wondered means without a recogni- seem polite to ask.
Address letters to
DISCOVER if they or someone they knew tion that we have failed in
275 Seventh Ave. might be a tetrachromat. At some way to hold ourselves Finding Alien Urbanites
21st Floor the moment there is no way to to a higher standard. For all Traditionally, alien hunters have
New York, NY 10001
take Jordan’s test for tetra- their intelligence, dogs do not used radio dishes to try to inter-
chromacy outside her U.K. lab, appear to have this conception cept the interstellar communi-
Include your full name,
address, and daytime nor is there a scientifically of moral good. A more inter- cations of ET. Steve Nadis (Out
phone number. rigorous test online. If testing esting question is whether There, page 88) described a
in the United States becomes nonhuman primates like different approach: searching
possible, we will cover it at gorillas do have the capacity for city lights on other worlds.
discovermagazine.com for moral evaluation. Despite the cleverness of this
Geoffrey Frasz detection method, it is likely
Body Swap Skepticism Las Vegas, NV that cities built by aliens with
“5 Ways to Leave Your Body” intelligence superior to our
(page 50) described technol- Pillow Invaders own will have eliminated light
ogy that makes people feel as “Mapping the Home’s Microbe pollution, thus rendering their
if they have swapped bodies. Habitats” (page 37) described cities invisible. Ian Stirling
What the scientists in the the Wildlife of Our Homes proj- Long Valley, NJ
article call out-of-body ect, led by ecologist Rob Dunn,
experiences may actually which is identifying the micro- Erratum
be empathy responses. Our bial ecosystems that flourish in In “Hidden Truths of Health”
brains can make us grab our U.S. households. Among other (page 60), we incorrectly
own arm when a kid falls out findings, the survey has found stated the year that the drug
of a tree and cry when friends that many bacteria on toilets Vioxx was pulled off the
tell painful stories about their match those on pillowcases. market. It was 2004.
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®
EDITOR’S NOTE
M A G A Z I N E
Corey S. Powell
editor in chief
Michael F. Di Ioia
creative director
Population’s Peak
EDITORIAL
Pamela Weintraub Tina Wooden
executive editor managing editor
Kevin Berger senior editor
Eric A. Powell senior editor
Jennifer Barone senior associate editor
Amy Barth associate editor
Andrew Grant associate editor
Valerie Ross reporter/researcher what about overpopulation?
Rebecca Chin editorial assistant It’s an inevitable question. Conventional wisdom says
interns
Emma Bryce, Fangfei Shen that the demands of an ever-growing number of humans
Cynthia S. Barder production coordinator
contributing editors will soon push our planet’s resources to the limit. Surely
Sean Carroll, Tim Folger, David H. Freedman,
Bruno Maddox, Linda Marsa, Kathleen McAuliffe, any discussion of “the future of population” would have to
Kat McGowan, Jill Neimark, Adam Piore,
Phil Plait, Dava Sobel, Gary Taubes, Carl Zimmer focus there. But two pieces of information steered me—
C
DarlFernaen RkC aManvadaiilo iSecrlca o tsk p edeAnec Rpi apuTlht opytr aoor jeted cdititrso edrcirtoecrtor anOd nthe iiss itshseu eh—istinor ay doifff fearileendt pdriorejecctitoionn.s about the conse- MACHINE IN
Katie Hausenbauer assistant photo editor quences of population growth. The most notorious warning UL
RF
Douglas Adesckoon, Ttrimiboutthiyn Agr acrhtibisatlds, C. J. Burton, came from English economist Thomas Malthus, who in 1798 ONDE
CaTliembJ OC. ’HhBaerrinelarnyn, d FJ,ao Ainr,na Dnth eEorlenliko R tLote sCae,u nSt,t piMnegan,cc Jkeoers nLhzouiwea eSDllta,r ro dhe, n , wmreottreic: a“lP roaptuiol,a atinodn ,s uwbhseisnt eunncceh feocrk meda,n i ninc raena saerdit hinm ae tgiecoa-l AMER/W
ShaDnInSoCnO TVaEgRgaMrAt, GNAaZthINanEi.eCl OWMelch ratio.” In other words, mouths multiply more quickly than BILL CR
Amos Zeeberg managing editor, online our ability to feed them—yet we are still feeding them.
Gemma Shusterman web producer In his 1968 best seller, The Population Bomb, biologist Mass starvation
Veronique Greenwood staff writer
Sophie Bushwick intern Paul Ehrlich more specifically declared, “In the 1970s
and 1980s, hundreds of millions of people will starve to
ADVERTISING SALES OFFICES is even less likely
DISPLAY death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon
NEW YORK
Tom Buttrick account manager now.” Famines on that scale never arrived.
917 421 9051
today than it was
DETROIT Second and more important is why Malthus and
Leslie Palmer account manager
248 530 0300 x1401 Ehrlich were so wrong. Resources are not fixed things.
CHICAGO
Joe Wholley account manager Better farming can drastically increase the food supply. in the 1960s.
312 236 4900 x1102
LOS ANGELES New energy sources enable much higher standards of
Joe Rafael account manager
213 596 7205 living. And then behavior changes in response: More
Kim McGraw account manager
213 596 7215 access to resources tends to make people have fewer
DIRECT RESPONSE children, not more. As a result the world’s population will
east coast
Ilyssa Somer 917 421 9055 probably hit its peak around 2100, followed by a historic
Reina Miller 917 421 9052
midwest leveling off and likely downturn (see page 30).
Joe Wholley 312 236 4900 x1102
Those changes will have their own disruptive effects.
west coast
Kim McGraw 213 596 7215 We will see an overall aging of the world that could slow
marketplace & classifieds
Chariya Milindawad 312 348 1201 economic growth and fray the social nets that support the
marJkuentei nCg. Ldoiruegcht or elderly (page 32). We will see more of the afflictions of old
Susan Weiss age (page 48) and greater efforts to eliminate aging entirely
research director
Sara Everts (page 60). Today’s inequalities and environmental challenges
advertising services manager
will not go away, and may yet reach crisis levels (page 52).
KALMBACH PUBLISHING CO.
Charles R. Croft president But mass starvation is even less likely today than it
Kevin P. Keefe vice president, editorial, publisher was in Ehrlich’s heyday. Human ingenuity and behavior,
Scott Stollberg vice president, advertising
Scott Bong corporate advertising director not gross numbers, are the real secret to understanding
Daniel R. Lance vice president, marketing
where our species is headed.
Michael Barbee corporate circulation director
Ken Meisinger group circulation manager
Brian Schmidt director of operations
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5
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DATA
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Heavens in Motion
Earth and the stars project blurred arcs of motion in this 15-minute time-lapse photograph taken from the International
Space Station in March. From 240 miles above Earth’s surface, lightning is visible as bright blotches, and city lights appear
as yellow streaks; the atmosphere glows in bands of yellow, green, and red as energetic air molecules interact and emit
light, a process (called airglow) that is difficult to see from the ground. The circular star trails result from the long
exposure as the station, partially visible at top, orbits Earth at 18,000 miles per hour. Astronaut Don Pettit created this
photo by remotely snapping 18 shots from an external camera and combining them with imaging software. fangfei shen
A
AS
N
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DATA
PORTRAIT OF AN IMPOSTOR
Phyllium giganteum, one of the largest of the world’s 30 or so species of leaflike insects, peers at the camera in OTO
panhdo tbolgortacphheesr o Mf tichhee pl lGanutnst hite er’ast Ps.a Irtiss osrtguadnios. aInred iggaetnhoeurse dto i nM aa slamysailal ,r itdhgise 4o-nin itcsh u “nwdaelrksiindge l teoa fa”l lmowa tac hselesn tdheer ,s lheaapfye BIOSPH
physique. The insect’s breezy swaying completes its camouflage. Although females like this one can reproduce HER/
by cloning themselves, they also mate with males to enable genetic exchange and promote diversity driving the NT
U
G
evolutionary engine that allowed the insects to blend in with their environment in the first place. emma bryce HEL
C
MI
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DATA
G
I
B
tap the healing
power of poop
For patients chronically debilitated by colitis, transplanting feces
from a healthy donor can offer a lifelong cure.
I
t’s flushed down dark Crohn’s disease to constipation. year a review of 317 patients treat-
pipes into malodorous sew- The procedure of transferring ed by 27 different research groups
ers. It is the very definition stool to a patient—technically found an astounding 92 percent
of “waste.” But it turns out called fecal microbiota transplan- cure rate from this unusual therapy.
that human feces may also have tation—was first performed in the Now a group of physicians have
amazing healing properties, due to United States in 1958 to treat an designed the fecal treatment’s first
the trillions of colon microorgan- intractable case of C. difficile colitis, double-blind trial, in which nei-
isms that it contains. Stool from a gastrointestinal condition caused ther patient nor researcher knows
a healthy person, recent findings when the balance of microbes in whether a placebo or a healthy
show, can cure nine out of ten the gut—called the microbiome—is microbiome is being delivered to
chronic cases of potentially deadly destabilized or destroyed. The goal the ailing gut. Before that can hap-
colitis caused by the intestinal was to banish C. difficile by over- pen, though, the fda needs to
bacterium Clostridium difficile. powering it with healthy microbes approve the use of healthy donor
Moreover, healthy stool might treat so that balance could be restored. stool as an “investigational new
a range of other disorders, from The experiment worked, and last drug.” Then the National Institutes
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of Health must provide funding. most strains of C. difficile, it also and we’re giving them something
Colleen Kelly, a gastroenterolo- produces heat-resistant spores back that has been missing. These
gist in Providence, Rhode Island, that can persist and lead to relapse. bugs have an effect on energy and
who is helping design the trial, says In 2010 gastroenterologist and immune function in a dramatic and
the first patient she treated with a immunologist Alex Khoruts of the mysterious way,” she says.
fecal transplant was a premed stu- University of Minnesota analyzed And C. difficile colitis is just the
dent in 2008 who was completely the microbiome of a 61-year-old start. An Australian pioneer in fecal
debilitated by six painful months woman suffering from recurrent transplants, Thomas Borody, has
of C. difficile colitis. “I tried every C. difficile colitis so severe that she performed the procedure in more
standard regimen of treatment. was in a wheelchair with diapers. than 1,900 patients, and has also
Nothing worked,” Kelly says. After Prior to receiving donor stool from found success treating irritable
the patient received a transplant of her husband, her microbiota were bowel syndrome, profound con-
her live-in boyfriend’s stool, she was largely pathogenic, as indicated stipation, and otherwise intrac-
cured. “When I saw her at follow- by dna sequencing. Two weeks table Crohn’s disease. “Crohn’s will
up, she looked fantastic,” Kelly says, after a fecal transplant, her flora often slowly regress with repeated
“smiling and completely symptom resembled that of her husband. She fecal infusions,” Borody says. With
free. She told me she’d felt better recovered completely. typical Australian humor, he con-
the same day as the transplant. I’ve cludes, “It’s a whole new form of
done 72 of these now, and I hear the fecal transplant therapootics.” jill neimark
that again and again.” At present, fecal transplantation is
Growing interest in the uncon- a simple protocol. A donor (often a
ventional therapy is due in part to healthy relative or close friend) is a user’s GuiDe
the fact that C. difficile colitis cases tested to be sure he or she doesn’t
to your MicroBioMe
have tripled in the past decade and carry any of the common blood or
now afflict more than half a million gut diseases, while the recipient
people a year. “C. difficile colitis is a undergoes the same kind of cleans- Trillions of microbes inhabit the human body, protecting us from
terrible problem, and fecal trans- ing prep one would get before pathogens and keeping our systems in tune. Now scientists at
the Human Microbiome Project, funded by the National Institutes
plant results are astounding,” says a colonoscopy. Then the doctor
of Health, have sequenced the genomes of almost every strain
Lawrence J. Brandt, emeritus chief processes the donated feces into
we harbor and mapped them to the organs where they live. Re-
of gastroenterology at Montefiore a smooth liquid consistency and searchers worldwide are discovering the specific roles microbes
Medical Center in New York. He is a infuses it into the patient’s colon play in our health. amy barth
proponent of fecal transplant ther- via a colonoscope tube or enema.
apy as a primary treatment for C. The healthy microbe community Nose People with chronic
rhinosinusitis a sinus inflam-
difficile, rather than as a last resort. in the sample then begins to take
mation responsible for about
over and populate the patient’s gut, 22 million U.S. doctor visits a
a crisis of colitis restoring a balanced microbiome. year have significantly less
The need for a better treatment is Despite strong anecdotal and bacterial diversity in their noses
great. C. difficile occurs mostly in case evidence, only a few physicians than healthy controls. They
also have an excess of normally
hospitalized patients who have scattered around the country actu-
innocuous Corynebacterium.
received antibiotics, which kill off ally perform fecal therapy. It won’t
many of our “good” bacteria. Up be more widely used until we have LuNgs Newborns with certain
ck allais/Gallery stock tspsaouere ecffr2 oce0lenir kpn daeet;t lr oayclef ne tandtosht t 6oho 5osaf e nvpi neege f orreece cvoectennuend rtt r oompe fnah otctariheeve;one . 3s tAa5es tbasahtnniuoedadm l tuyyee snct ipathsikr nlme etochsali aospyteg l aalpyylc l staieoonn. Anaiadn edcedavlni alndytniziofcceuyae balst lh seimene-tb itsdclipinrnnoegad--, taagbtyhersapeatsch enttmsmes t orhaoairoasf.e tlsAb heldai mk sicwvteateuilettyrdihrs cyitoiasot iu y nhidtn ia ean ttvhvd heteeuhe l fleoidtarsipi rrsl u semlunuaonggsrgs-ee s.
n
osite: fra finewfe cstuefdfe creorlos na crteumaollvye hda ivne otrhdeeirr cthifaitc seelte tmhee nsytsst einm t rhigeh dt.onor feces RepRoductive systeM
opp to “cure” the disease. For Kelly, the future cannot come In June obstetricians described
my. the vaginal microbiome of
ner/ala lenAt lsatrrmaiinn gemly,e ar gdeedc athdaet acgaon aa tvtiarcuk- saoso ank einn otuog ah .t “iWssue ea roer l ooorkgianng tarta tnhsis- ptrriemgensatenrt, wLaocmtoebna. cBilylu tsh jeo hthnisrodn ii,
m top: istock; mark Wie icsmntoruduaciirvhnsi d eopu fro aotfhld seau andcfeittsieseb rua ijospuet s’tistoc p so2r.n 3imTe t hairmoreyu e nttsioe naxwes- pbiWtli’saoe n’smroet,” emt srfeahutnenh sscipnatlyigaos nyn. to“sAiun lh igck eaaean hla’ttehn layi vol tgerhu gwyta mimnth,ii ccaorrnuoodt--. udpfosrigreu esdasuilgtlmy em asfoitbliuklnyn,g bdt obe i rncpeo ratemhspetea mgsre uial tkib nt.u foan hndetaslnp t ,
fro ins as the common version. Like biome. We do the fecal transplant
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