Table Of ContentE
SOUTH AFRICA'S FUTURE
Also by Anthony Ginsberg
INTERNATIONAL TAX PLANNING
INTERNATIONAL TAX HAVENS
TAX HAVENS
South Africa's Future
From Crisis to Prosperity
Anthony Ginsberg
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First published 1998 by Macmillan
an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Ltd
25 Eccleston Place, London SW1W 9NF
and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 6XS
Associated companies throughout the world
ISBN 0 333 77536 8 PB
ISBN 0 333 72187 XHB
First published 1998 by St Martin's Press
Scholarly and Reference Division,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010
ISBN 0 312 21503 7 HC
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Ginsberg, Anthony Sanfield.
South Africa's future : from crisis to prosperity / Anthony Ginsberg,
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-312-21503-7 (cloth : alk. paper)
1. South Africa—Politics and government—1994- 2. South Africa-
-Economic conditions— 1991 - I. Title.
DT1974.G56 1998
338.968—dc21 98-12975
CIP
Copyright © Anthony Ginsberg 1998
The right of Anthony Ginsberg to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted
by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced
into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means (electronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of the publisher.
Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to
criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.
13 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Printed and bound in Great Britain
Any content, views of opinions presented in this book are solely those of the author and do
not in any way represent those of his previous or present employers.
Owing to the rapidly changing face of the international economy, certain statistics may
now be outdated.
To
my beautiful and loving wife Ruthy
Mom, Dad, Caryn and Dean
Granny Lily
&
to the warm, friendly people of South Africa
This page intentionally left blank
Contents
List of Figures and Tables viii
Introduction 1
CHAPTER ONE
Our Inheritance 24
CHAPTER TWO
Crime is Out of Control 39
CHAPTER THREE
A South Africa in Danger -
The Need for Change 52
CHAPTER FOUR
A South Africa that Reforms its Politics -
Holding Our Leaders Accountable 95
CHAPTER FIVE
An Electorate that Demands the Best -
The Need for a Viable Opposition 116
CHAPTER SIX
The Power of the Markets - Attracting Investment
and Foreign Exchange 137
CHAPTER SEVEN
Export Processing Options 164
CHAPTER EICHT
A South Africa that Works 183
CHAPTER NINE
job Creation and the Labour Challenges Ahead .... 221
CHAPTER TEN
The Need for a New lax System 246
CHAPTER ELEVEN
Conclusion 254
APPENDIX:
A Checklist for all South African Political Candidates 259
BIBLIOCRAPHY 260
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
Figure 1 Economic growth rates in South Africa
(percentage change in CDP) 4
Figure 2 Comparing South Africa's 1996 economic
growth with that of other countries 4
Figure 3 Annual entrants into the South African
labour market (note that few jobs have
been created) 5
Figure 4 South African government debt as a
percentage of GDP 6
Figure 5 South African budget deficit
(in billions of rands) 7
Figure 6 South Africa: GDP per capita
(in rands, adjusted for inflation) 8
Figure 7 A rand meltdown (how many rands US$1
now7 buys) 8
Figure 8 Lack of job creation 9
Figure 9 Net number of jobs created in South Africa,
1990-97 (non-agricultural) 10
Figure 10 Composition of population groups in
South Africa 25
Figure 11 Gold price (in US$) 25
Figure 12 Gold mining industry employment 26
Figure 13 Prime overdraft rate, 1994-97
(in percentage terms) 32
Figure 14 Growth in employment in South Africa
(percentage per annum) 86
Figure 15 South Africa's high government wage bill:
an international comparison 86
Figure 16 South Africa's exploding national debt
(in billions of rands) 87
\ m
Figure 17 South Africa GDP
by sector (1995) 112
Figure 18 Composition of the vote in the 1994
general elections 121
Figure 19 Composition of NP and ANC votes, 1994
(note that 50% of the NP vote was white) .... 127
Figure 20 South Africa's high budget deficit
(as percentage of GDP) 141
Figure 21 The Mauritius Export Processing Zone:
a success story 169
Figure 22 How the EPZ has boosted exports in
Mauritius (in millions of rupees) 169
Figure 23 International comparison of manufacturing
output, 1985-92 186
Figure 24 South Africa's percentage share of world
exports, selected years from 1960-92 195
Figure 25 South African level of investment as a
percentage of GDP (gross domestic fixed
investment/GDP) 197
Figure 26 South Africa's low private savings rate as a
percentage of national income 198
Figure 27 Personal savings in South Africa as a
percentage of GDP, 1961-91 199
Figure 28 Gross domestic savings in South Africa as a
percentage of GDP (1996) 200
Figure 29 Average inflation rate in South Africa 210
Figure 30 South African government budget allocations
(selected expenditures only) 214
Figure 31 South African balance of payments
(in millions of rands) 215
Figure 32 South African GDP by economic sector
(in percentage terms) 216
Figure 33 Mean years of schooling in South Africa (1991) 237
Figure 34 Percentage tax payable on distributed
earnings, world comparison (excludes tax
incentives) 249
IX
