Table Of ContentRisk Science and Sustainability
Science for Reduction of Risk and Sustainable Development
of Society
NATO Science Series
A Series presenting the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO Science
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Series II: Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry - Vol. 112
Risk Science and Sustainability
Science for Reduction of Risk and
Sustainable Development of Society
edited by
Tom Beer
CSIRO Environmental Risk Network,
Aspendale, Australia
and
Alik Ismail-Zadeh
International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics,
Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, and
Geophysikalisches Institut, Universitat Karlsruhe, Germany
EUROSCIENCE IUGG
Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V.
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on
Science for Reduction of Risk and Sustainable Development of Society
Budapest, Hungary
15-16 June 2002
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 978-1-4020-1447-5 ISBN 978-94-010-0167-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-010-0167-0
Printed an acid-free paper
AII Rights Reserved
© 2003 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 2003
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 2003
No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming,
recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception
of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered
and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface vii
Acknowledgements ix
Workshop Initiative, Programme and Organising Committees xi
Workshop Synopsis Xlll
Budapest Manifesto xv
Talks
The Globalisation of Risk in the XXIst Century
I.-P. Connerade 1
Risk and Sustainability in Water Resources Management
U. Shamir 9
Aids to Decision-Making in Risk Management:
Mobilisation of the Scientific Community to Improve Risk Management
I.-P. Massue 15
Science and Risk: Scientific Authority at Risk
G. Schmeder 21
Basic Science for Prediction and Reduction of Geological Disasters
VI. Keilis-Borok 29
Papers
Environmental Risk and Sustainability
T. Beer 39
Science for Risk Reduction and Sustainable Development: the Role of Law
I. Paterson 63
Sustainable Development and Risk Evaluation: Challenges and Possible
New Methodologies
A Makarenko 77
On Predictability of Homicide Surges in Megacities
VI. Keilis-Borok, D.l. Gascon, AA Soloviev,
M.D. Intriligator, R. Pichardo and F.E. Winberg 91
Earthquakes and Megacities
F. Wenzel and F. Bendimerad 111
VI
Case Studies
Earth Sciences Contribution to the Sustainable Development of Ground
Transportation Systems: Relevant Case Studies in Central Europe
G.F. Panza and M. Kouteva 127
Modelling of Stress and Seismicity in the South-Eastern Carpathians:
A Basis for Seismic Risk Estimation
A. T. Ismail-Zadeh 149
Earthquake Loss Estimation For India Based on Macroeconomic Indicators
P.K. Dunbar, R.G. Bilham and M.f. Laituri 163
Monitors and Methods for Investigation of Submarine Landslides, Seawater
Intrusion and Contaminated Groundwater Discharge as Coastal Hazards
L.L Lobkovsky, E.A. Kontar, LA. Garagash and Y.A. Ozoravich 181
Risk of Collective Youth Violence in French Suburbs:
A Clinical Scale of Evaluation, an Alert System
L. Bui Trang 199
Abstracts
Lessons from Macrophagic Myofasciitis:
Towards Definition of a Vaccine Adjuvant-Related Syndrome (abstract)
R.K. Gherardi 223
Flood Risk Management in the Upper Tisza Basin in Hungary:
A System Analytical Approach (abstract)
1. Linneraoth-Bayer, A. Vdri and Z. Ferencz 225
Volcanoes and Cities (abstract)
G. Heiken 227
Geo-Risk Management Practices in the Asia Pacific Region (abstract)
A. W layawardena 229
Values, Interests and Symbolic Politics in a Nuclear Waste Disposal
Debate:
About the Societal Dimensions of Risk Perception (abstract) 231
P. Tamas and A. Vdri
Appendix
List of Contributors 233
List of Reviewers 237
Subject Index 239
Vll
PREFACE
AUK ISMAIL-ZADEH1,2, TOM BEER3
1 International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and
Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Warshavskoye shosse 79-2, Moscow 113556, Russia;
e-mail: [email protected]
2 Geophysikalisches Institut, Universittit Karlsruhe,
Hertzstr. 16, Karlsruhe 76187, Germany;
e-mail: [email protected]
3 CSIRO Environmental Risk Network,
CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic. 3195
Australia; e-mail: [email protected]
The world faces major threats to the sustainability of our planet. These threats are
accompanied by the immediate dangers of natural and man-made disasters. Our
vulnerability to them is greatly magnified with each passing year undermining our
ability to maintain a sustainable and productive world into the 21st Century and beyond.
Both history and common sense teach us that science has a tremendous potential to find
ways to cope with these threats.
The EUROSCIENCE1 working group "Science and Urgent Problems of Society"
and the IUGG2 Commission on Geophysical Risk and Sustainability were initiators of
the EUROSCIENCE - IUGG Advanced Research Workshop "Science for Reduction of
Risk and Sustainable Development of Society" sponsored by the NATO Science
Program. The Workshop was held on 15-16 June 2002 in Budapest, Hungary. More
than 40 participants from 17 countries took part in the Workshop. Talks and discussions
addressed mainly the question of how science can help in reduction of risk and
sustainable development of society.
One of the Workshop organisers was EUROSCIENCE founded in 1997 in order to
(i) provide an open forum for debate on science and technology, (ii) strengthen the links
between science and society, (iii) to contribute to the creation of an integrated space for
science and technology in Europe, and (iv) to influence science and technology policies.
Euroscience is a pan-European association of individuals interested in constructing
scientific Europe "from the bottom-up". It represents European scientists of all discip-
1 EUROSCIENCE, the European Association for Promotion of Science and Technology
(www.euroscience.org)
2 IUGG, the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (www.iugg.org)
Vlll
lines (including social sciences and the humanities), in the public sector, universities,
research institutes as well as business and industry. This grass-roots organisation is
open to research professionals, science administrators, policy-makers, teachers, PhD
students, post-docs, engineers, industrialists, and generally to any citizen interested in
science and technology and its links with society.
This Workshop also provided the opportunity for the inaugural meeting of the
IUGG Commission on Geophysical Risk and Sustainability. The Commission was
established by the IUGG Bureau in August 2000 to study the interaction between
hazards, their likelihood and their wider social consequences as a result of the
vulnerability of societies. The Commission received the support of all the seven
International Associations that comprise the IUGG.
The proclamation of the Budapest Manifesto, which will be found in this volume, is
the joint achievement of the IUGG Commission and EUROSCIENCE working group
"Science and Urgent Problems of Society" and is a tribute to the enthusiasm and energy
of the members of the IUGG Commission and EUROSCIENCE.
This volume contains the most relevant peer-reviewed papers presented at the
Budapest Workshop as invited by the editors. Also, we include in the volume several
abstracts of the invited talks that were presented at the Workshop. The volume presents
papers from scientists, policy makers, and practitioners on the topic of risk,
sustainability, science and society.
The Workshop itself, as explained in the Synopsis that follows, was divided into
two portions. The fIrst portion dealt with natural and environmental risk prevention and
sustainability. The second portion dealt with relationships between science, risk and
society. Thus, the papers and abstracts that follow address two key problems:
Natural, technological and environmental risks, risk prevention and sustainable
development, and
Science, risk and society.
This volume, however, follows a different arrangement. We arrange the papers into
three portions: (1) talks (concise reports) and abstracts, (2) research papers, and (3) case
studies. They are preceded by a synopsis of the volume, and the text of the Budapest
Manifesto.
These contributions provide an invaluable insight, and archival record of the
relationship between risk, science, and society in a world that has become more
turbulent since the tragic events of 11 September 2001. The participants at the
Workshop were conscious of the need to defIne a way forward and agreed to issue a
declaration, to be called the Budapest Manifesto on Risk Science and Sustainability, to
reinforce the social and vital link between the scientific community and the public so as
to provide a general guide for scientists to deal with risk and sustainability.
Alik Ismail-Zadeh Tom Beer
[email protected] [email protected]
Karlsruhe, Germany Melbourne, Australia
April 2003
IX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We express our gratitude to the NATO Science Committee, the European Association
for Promotion of Science and Technology (EUROSCIENCE), and the International
Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) who supported the Budapest Workshop
"Science for Reduction of Risk and Sustainable Development of Society" and made this
publication possible.
We express our gratitude to the Scientific and Organising Committee of the Workshop.
We would especially like to thank Raymond Seltz (Secretary General, EURO
SCIENCE) who was co-Director of the Workshop and greatly contributed to the success
of the meeting in Budapest. We are also indebted to Francoise Praderie (Honorary Vice
President of EUROSCIENCE) who supported the idea of the joint workshop on risk
science and sustainability and helped in the organisation of the Workshop. We are
grateful to the staff of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, and specially to
Norbert Kroo (Secretary General, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) who were mainly
responsible for the local organisation of the meeting.
Weare very thankful to all reviewers who spent a significant amount of time to improve
the quality of the manuscripts submitted and to help guarantee the success of this
publication.
Xl
WORKSHOP INITIATIVE
Alik ISMAIL-ZADEH, EUROSCIENCE Governing Board member and vice-chair of
the IUGG Commission of Geophysical Risk and Sustainability
Tom BEER, IUGG Board Member and chair of the IUGG Commission of Geophysical
Risk and Sustainability
PROGRAMME COMMITTEE OF THE WORKSHOP
Jean-Patrie CONNERADE, President, EUROSCIENCE (UK)
Vladimir KEILIS-BOROK,former President, IUGG (Russia / USA)
Norbert KROQ, Secretary General, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Hungary)
ORGANISING COMMITTEE OF THE WORKSHOP
Simeon ANGUELOV, EUROSCIENCE Governing Board member (Bulgaria / France)
Tom BEER, IUGG (Australia)
Alik ISMAIL-ZADEH, EUROSCIENCE & IUGG, co-Director (Russia / Germany)
Raymond SELTZ, EUROSCIENCE Secretary General, co-Director (France)
