Responding to a changing Arctic

1144 Pages·2015·12.1 MB·English

SELECT COMMITTEE ON THE ARCTIC
Oral and written evidence
Contents
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213) ................................ 6
Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) – Written evidence (ARC0055) ........................... 26
Arctic Advisory Group, the Henry Jackson Society, and the Royal Society – Oral evidence (QQ
158 – 172) ................................................................................................................................. 32
Arctic Advisory Group – Written evidence (ARC0060) ............................................................ 70
Arctic Athabaskan Council – Written evidence (ARC0014) ...................................................... 76
Dr. Sheldon Bacon, Dr. Ed Hawkins and Professor Chris Rapley – Oral evidence (QQ 16 – 28)
.................................................................................................................................................. 78
Dr. Sheldon Bacon, Dr. Ed Hawkins and Professor Chris Rapley – Supplementary written
evidence (ARC0013) ............................................................................................................... 106
Dr. Sheldon Bacon, Professor Daniel Feltham, Dr. Ed Hawkins, Professor Andrew Shepherd
and Professor Chris Rapley – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0049) .......................... 112
Professor Michael Bradshaw, Dr Richard Powell and Professor Frances Wall – Oral evidence
(QQ 142 – 157) ....................................................................................................................... 114
Professor Michael Bradshaw – Written evidence (ARC0062) ................................................ 146
British Antarctic Survey (BAS) – Written evidence (ARC0018) .............................................. 148
British Antarctic Survey, Scott Polar Research Institute, and Scottish Association for Marine
Science – Oral evidence (QQ 260 – 272) ................................................................................ 153
Professor Terry V. Callaghan – Written evidence (ARC0030) ................................................ 180
Professor Alex Calvo – Written evidence (ARC0007) ............................................................. 186
Canadian Polar Commission – Written evidence (ARC0040) ................................................. 188
Professor Robin Churchill, Professor Maurice Mendelson QC, and Professor Philip Steinberg –
Oral evidence (QQ 50 – 62) .................................................................................................... 194
Professor Robin Churchill – Written evidence (ARC0038) ..................................................... 218
Clarksons Research Services, International Chamber of Shipping, Manson Oceanographic
Consultancy – Oral evidence (QQ 63 – 80) ............................................................................ 222
HE Nicola Clase, HE Pekka Huhtaniemi and Alan Kessel – Oral evidence (QQ 311 – 318) .... 261
Luke Coffey – Written evidence (ARC0017) ........................................................................... 280
Michael Jonathan Dangerfield – Written evidence (ARC0063) ............................................. 286
Duncan Depledge – Written evidence (ARC0011) ................................................................. 293
HE Else Berit Eikeland and HE Thórdur Aegir Óskarsson – Oral evidence (QQ 273 – 283) .... 298
Embassy of Japan in the United Kingdom – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0069) ... 320
European Commission – Oral evidence (QQ 250 – 259) ........................................................ 344
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)
European Commission – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0064) ................................ 352
European Policies Research Centre, School of Government and Public Policy, University of
Strathclyde – Written evidence (ARC0020) ........................................................................... 353
Fednav, Lloyds Register and Sovcomflot Overseas Holding Ltd – Oral evidence (QQ 131 –
141) ......................................................................................................................................... 359
Professor Daniel Feltham, Professor Andy Shepherd and Professor Peter Wadhams –
evidence (QQ 29 – 36) ............................................................................................................ 386
Professor Daniel Feltham, Dr Sheldon Bacon, Dr Ed Hawkins, and Professor Andrew
Shepherd – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0049) ..................................................... 409
HE Foo Chi Hsia and HE Keiichi Hayashi – Oral evidence (QQ 302 – 310) ............................. 410
Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Ministry of Defence (Officials) – Oral evidence (QQ 1
– 15) ........................................................................................................................................ 430
Foreign and Commonwealth Office – Written evidence (ARC0001) ..................................... 473
Foreign and Commonwealth Office – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0004) ............ 479
Foreign and Commonwealth Office – Further supplementary written evidence (ARC0024) 480
Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Ministry of Defence (Minister and Officials) – Oral
evidence (QQ 319 – 330) ........................................................................................................ 495
Foreign and Commonwealth Office – Further supplementary written evidence (ARC0072) 538
Alan Gadian – Written evidence (ARC0036) .......................................................................... 540
The Geological Society – Written evidence (ARC0031) ......................................................... 545
Dr Dougal Goodman – Written evidence (ARC0022) ............................................................. 550
Greenpeace – Oral evidence (QQ 173 – 188) ........................................................................ 556
HE Claus Grube – Oral evidence (QQ 284 - 291) .................................................................... 590
Dr. Ed Hawkins, Dr. Sheldon Bacon, and Professor Chris Rapley – Oral evidence (QQ 16 – 28)
................................................................................................................................................ 611
Dr. Ed Hawkins, Dr. Sheldon Bacon and Professor Chris Rapley – Supplementary written
evidence (ARC0013) ............................................................................................................... 612
Dr. Ed Hawkins, Professor Daniel Feltham, Dr. Sheldon Bacon and Professor Andrew
Shepherd – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0049) ..................................................... 613
The Henry Jackson Society – Written evidence (ARC0033) ................................................... 614
The Henry Jackson Society, the Arctic Advisory Group and the Royal Society – Oral evidence
(QQ 158 – 172) ....................................................................................................................... 618
The Henry Jackson Society – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0052) .......................... 619
HE Pekka Huhtaniemi, HE Nicola Clase and Alan Kessel – Oral evidence (QQ 311 – 318) .... 621
HE Foo Chi Hsia and HE Keiichi Hayashi – Oral evidence (QQ 302 – 310) ............................. 622
International Association of Oil & Gas Producers – Written evidence (ARC0034) ................ 623
International Association of Oil & Gas Producers – Oral evidence (QQ 189 – 202) .............. 630
2 of 1144
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)
International Association of Oil & Gas Producers – Supplementary written evidence
(ARC0067) ............................................................................................................................... 655
International Chamber of Shipping, Clarksons Research Services and Manson Oceanographic
Consultancy – Oral evidence (QQ 63 – 80) ............................................................................ 657
International Maritime Organization – Written evidence (ARC0066) ................................... 658
International Polar Foundation UK – Written evidence (ARC0037) ...................................... 663
Roderick Johnson, Rear Admiral Tom Karsten RN and Dr Richard Wood – Oral evidence (QQ
214 – 225) ............................................................................................................................... 664
Roderick Johnson – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0065) ........................................ 689
Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami (ITK) – Written evidence (ARC0058) ................................................. 708
Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami (ITK) – Oral evidence (QQ 292 – 301) ................................................ 713
Joint Nature Conservation Committee – Written evidence (ARC0059) ................................ 733
Rear Admiral Tom Karsten RN, Roderick Johnson, and Dr Richard Wood – Oral evidence (QQ
214 – 225) ............................................................................................................................... 744
Ilan Kelman – Written evidence (ARC0051) ........................................................................... 745
Alan Kessel, HE Nicola Clase and HE Pekka Huhtaniemi – Oral evidence (QQ 311 – 318) .... 748
Michael Kingston DWF LLP, in conjunction with Åke Rohlén, President of Arctic Marine
Solutions, and Captain Anders Backman, President Viking Ice Council – Written evidence
(ARC0054) ............................................................................................................................... 749
Michael Kingston DWF LLP – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0070) .......................... 757
Elizabeth Kirk – Written evidence (ARC0015) ........................................................................ 761
Dr Nalân Koç and Dr Jan-Gunnar Winther – Oral evidence (QQ 81 – 97).............................. 764
Dr. Nalân Koç – Written evidence (ARC0061) ........................................................................ 808
Daniel Kochis – Written evidence (ARC0019) ............................................................................ 1
Christian Le Mière and Dr Jeffrey Mazo – Oral evidence (QQ 37 – 49) ..................................... 6
Lloyds Register, Fednav, and Sovcomflot Overseas Holding Ltd – Oral evidence (QQ 131 –
141) ........................................................................................................................................... 30
Lloyd’s Register – Written evidence (ARC0048) ....................................................................... 31
London Mining – Written evidence (ARC0046) ..................................................................... 939
London Mining plc and Anglo American – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213) ............................ 948
Hugh Mackay – Written evidence (ARC0042) ........................................................................ 949
Manson Oceanographic Consultancy, Clarksons Research Services and International
Chamber of Shipping – Oral evidence (QQ 63 – 80) .............................................................. 957
Manson Oceanographic Consultancy – Written evidence (ARC0005) ................................... 958
Professor Maurice Mendelson QC, Professor Robin Churchill and Professor Philip Steinberg –
Oral evidence (QQ 50 – 62) .................................................................................................... 963
Professor Maurice Mendelson, Q.C. – Written evidence (ARC0039) .................................... 964
Dr Jeffrey Mazo and Christian Le Mière – Oral evidence (QQ 37 – 49) ................................. 971
3 of 1144
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)
Met Office – Written evidence (ARC0044) ............................................................................. 972
Met Office – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0071).................................................... 974
Ministry of Defence and Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Officials) – Oral evidence (QQ 1
– 15) ........................................................................................................................................ 976
Ministry of Defence – Written evidence (ARC0002) .............................................................. 977
Ministry of Defence – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0073) ..................................... 978
Ministry of Defence and Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Minister and Officials) – Oral
evidence (QQ 319 – 330) ........................................................................................................ 979
National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Written evidence (ARC0021) ............................ 980
National Oceanography Centre – Written evidence (ARC0032) ............................................ 984
Natural Environment Research Council – Written evidence (ARC0041) ............................. 1000
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Arctic Office – Written evidence (ARC0028)
.............................................................................................................................................. 1004
HE Thórdur Aegir Óskarsson and HE Else Berit Eikeland – Oral evidence (QQ 273 – 283) .. 1011
Dr. Richard Powell, Professor Michael Bradshaw, and Professor Frances Wall – Oral evidence
(QQ 142 – 157) ..................................................................................................................... 1012
Dr. Richard C. Powell – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0053) ................................. 1013
Professor Chris Rapley, Dr. Sheldon Bacon and Dr. Ed Hawkins – Oral evidence (QQ 16 – 28)
.............................................................................................................................................. 1015
Professor Chris Rapley, Dr. Sheldon Bacon and Dr. Ed Hawkins – Supplementary written
evidence (ARC0013) ............................................................................................................. 1016
Vincent Rigby (Chair of the Senior Arctic Officials, the Arctic Council – Oral evidence (QQ 226
– 236) .................................................................................................................................... 1017
Royal Society – Written evidence (ARC0047) ...................................................................... 1042
The Royal Society, the Henry Jackson Society, and Arctic Advisory Group – Oral evidence (QQ
158 – 172) ............................................................................................................................. 1046
The Sámi Parliament of Norway – Oral evidence (QQ 116 – 130) ....................................... 1047
Scott Polar Research Institute, Scottish Association for Marine Science and British Antarctic
Survey – Oral evidence (QQ 260 – 272) ............................................................................... 1076
Scottish Association for Marine Science, British Antarctic Survey and Scott Polar Research
Institute, – Oral evidence (QQ 260 – 272) ........................................................................... 1077
Professor Andy Shepherd, Professor Daniel Feltham and Professor Peter Wadhams – Oral
evidence (QQ 29 – 36) .......................................................................................................... 1078
Professor Andrew Shepherd – Written evidence (ARC0045) .............................................. 1079
Professor Andrew Shepherd, Dr. Sheldon Bacon, Professor Daniel Feltham and Dr. Ed
Hawkins – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0049) ..................................................... 1084
Statoil – Oral evidence (QQ 98 – 115) .................................................................................. 1085
Professor Philip Steinberg, Professor Robin Churchill and Professor Maurice Mendelson QC –
Oral evidence (QQ 50 – 62) .................................................................................................. 1102
4 of 1144
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)
Stratton Park Associates – Written evidence (ARC0025)..................................................... 1103
Sovcomflot Overseas Holding Ltd, Fednav and Lloyds Register – Oral evidence (QQ 131 –
141) ....................................................................................................................................... 1105
Professor Damon A.H. Teagle – Written evidence (ARC0029) ............................................ 1106
Dr. Aki Tonami – Written evidence (ARC0008) .................................................................... 1109
Dr. Dmitriy S. Tulupov – Written evidence (ARC0009) ........................................................ 1111
University College London, Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction – Written evidence
(ARC0027) ............................................................................................................................. 1114
Professor Peter Wadhams, Professor Daniel Feltham, and Professor Andy Shepherd – Oral
evidence (QQ 29 – 36) .......................................................................................................... 1122
Professor Peter Wadhams – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0006)......................... 1123
Professor Frances Wall, Professor Michael Bradshaw and Dr Richard Powell – Oral evidence
(QQ 142 – 157) ..................................................................................................................... 1125
Professor Frances Wall – Supplementary written evidence (ARC0056) .............................. 1126
Matthew Willis – Written evidence (ARC0043) ................................................................... 1130
Dr. Nalân Koç and Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther – Oral evidence (QQ 81 – 97).......................... 1138
Dr. Richard Wood, Rear Admiral Tom Karsten RN and Roderick Johnson – Oral evidence (QQ
214 – 225) ............................................................................................................................. 1139
World Meteorological Office’s Polar Prediction Project – Written evidence (ARC0026) .... 1140
WWF-UK – Written evidence (ARC0050) ............................................................................. 1142
WWF UK – Oral evidence (QQ 237 – 249) ............................................................................ 1148
5 of 1144
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)

Evidence Session No. 15 Heard in Public Questions 203 – 213

TUESDAY 21 OCTOBER 2014
Members present
Lord Teverson (Chairman)
Lord Hannay of Chiswick
Viscount Hanworth
Lord Hunt of Chesterton
Lord Moynihan
Lord Oxburgh
Baroness Neville-Jones
Lord Soley
Lord Tugendhat
________________
Examination of Witnesses
Claude Perras Head of Sustainability, London Mining plc, and Richard Morgan, Head of
Government Relations, Anglo American

Q273 The Chairman: This is the second part of our session today. We are looking at mining.
I welcome you, Mr Perras. I understand that Mr Hossie is not available after all, but we are
very grateful to you for coming along. You should have a copy of our interests. We will be
going through a number of questions that you have seen. At the moment you are clearly the
only person who can possibly answer these questions, so I am afraid you are going to have
to do all of them.
Claude Perras: I am going to be drilled, am I not?
The Chairman: Perhaps you could introduce yourself and then we will start the session.
Claude Perras: First, thank you for inviting us to this Committee. I apologise on behalf of our
CEO, Graham Hossie. We had an emergency at the office this morning, as you may have
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)
heard in the news with regard to London Mining. My name is Claude Perras. I am the head
of sustainability for London Mining. I am responsibility for health and safety, the
environment and external relations, so I cover most of the angles when we develop projects.
I am here to try to respond to your questions and to help you to better understand the Arctic
and some of the challenges that the industry is facing there.
The Chairman: You have interests in Greenland, or you have had. Have you been there?
Claude Perras: I have been there many times. I am also leading the IBA negotiation with the
Government of Greenland and two municipalities.
The Chairman: Excellent.
Claude Perras: I am quite well versed about the area and some of the challenges, especially
in Greenland. I am originally from Canada, so I have also worked in the northern part of
Canada, and in some of the provinces as well.
The Chairman: We look forward to your contribution this morning. Based on your area of
expertise, how important in a global context are the mineral resources of the Arctic likely to
prove to be in the future, and are there particular resources that might be of importance to
the UK and its mining industries?
Claude Perras: The Arctic is a frontier area for the mining industry. The resources are there.
They have started to be exploited and extracted in various parts of the Arctic. I can focus
more on Greenland. Greenland does not have much experience of the mining industry. It is
a matter of time before these resources are accessed. For the UK, there are different
commodities—iron ore, rare earths, various nickels et cetera—that are strategic for any
developed economy. These are the last reserves of various commodities existing on the
planet right now. They will be developed eventually. It is a matter of time.
7 of 1144
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)
Q274 The Chairman: You have been listening to some of our evidence from the oil side of
the business. Clearly one of the suspicions there is that because of the price of oil and gas,
in a way there is less incentive to move from exploration into production. On the mineral
side, there is perhaps this driver of rare earths or other minerals that are less prolific
elsewhere, particularly in view of the Chinese position on rare earths. Do you think this will
be a major driver, despite the difficulties? Is this a very different situation from that of the
oil and gas industry in this area?
Claude Perras: In the mining industry, you have different commodities, so the cycle of the
prices for commodities varies. You may have more drive to develop a certain type of
commodity at a certain time. Right now, the iron ore price is quite low and the rare earth
price is quite high, so it varies. It is a matter of timing. The industry will develop projects in
the planning process for when the price will pick up. Currently, developing an iron ore
project in Greenland would be quite challenging because of the price of iron ore, but when
the price starts to go down a lot of companies start planning for when the price will pick up.
The Chairman: To come back to my first question on UK interests, are there particular
resources that might be of importance to UK mining interests?
Claude Perras: I believe—I am talking about the UK and Europe—that currently resources
such as iron ore, rare earth and other commodities such as gold are of strategic importance
to the UK in the long run. Getting access to commodities is always a strategic issue for any
country in the world, and I would think it is for the UK Government.
The Chairman: Thank you, I will come on to Viscount Hanworth. We welcome Mr Morgan.
Richard Morgan: I am sorry I am late.
8 of 1144
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)
The Chairman: I am sure the House of Lords is quite a difficult place to get into on
occasions. We are on question 1 at the moment. Perhaps when we get to the next question
I can ask you to introduce yourself formally.
Q275 Viscount Hanworth: Are there exploitable resources of uranium or thorium in
Greenland or elsewhere in the Arctic Circle, and if there are what kinds of national interests
or excitements have been expressed?
Claude Perras: There is uranium in Greenland. There is also uranium in northern Canada, in
the Canadian Arctic, as well. These are strategic resources. There has been a big debate in
Greenland about the exploitation of uranium. It has decided that it will proceed with the
exploitation of uranium.
Viscount Hanworth: Do the Chinese have any particular interest that you can describe to us?
Claude Perras: The Chinese are prospecting like other countries. Currently investors in
Greenland are coming from China, Canada and the UK. There is a broad range. It depends
on where the head office of these companies is. Various countries are currently prospecting
in Greenland.
The Chairman: Mr Morgan, would you to introduce yourself briefly, and then we will move
on.
Richard Morgan: I would be happy to. I am in charge of government relations for Anglo
American mining. We have certain interests in the Arctic, but not many at this stage,
primarily on the Canadian side and in Finland. We had a look at Greenland as well.
Essentially for us, it fits into the wider picture. There are about 10 commodities that we are
after. In Canada it is mainly diamonds, and in Finland we were looking primarily at a copper-
nickel polymetallic mine. There is a range. We have had some conversations with
Greenland. That is the rough introduction to our interests in the Arctic.
9 of 1144
Anglo American and London Mining plc – Oral evidence (QQ 203 – 213)
The Chairman: Thank you.
Q276 Lord Moynihan: In the context of that introduction, have you had any support for
your business activities in the Arctic from the UK Government?
Richard Morgan: We had a presentation at a UKTI-managed event in the City that focused
mainly on the Scandinavian countries rather than on the Arctic per se. It was really about
accessing Scandinavia, but with a view, certainly in our case, to mining further north, so we
had some overlap in that sense, but on the Arctic as such, no. In a way, as with all these
things, we have not yet got to the stage where there is enough commercial momentum
behind our interest to be taking it further. It is still very much at the exploration stage.
Lord Moynihan: Do you have anything to add?
Claude Perras: There was a conference on the Arctic, organised by the UK Government, a
few months ago. I believe it was last June here in London. I will focus on Greenland more
specifically. As you know, the British embassy in Copenhagen looks after Greenland. My
experience is that people are not very familiar with the area. The UK Government could do
much more to support British industry if it is interested in really exploring the area. I am
sorry to say this, but from experience I did not feel that they were very useful.
Lord Moynihan: Out of interest, do you know whether other Governments or the European
Union give significantly more support to their companies looking to engage in the Arctic, and
if so, can you give us any examples?
Claude Perras: The EU has called a few meetings about Greenland, which we have attended
a few times in Brussels, with regard to the development of mining resources in Greenland.
There are other countries. As you know, it depends on how the companies are being
funded, but there are a lot of companies coming from Australia and Canada and prospecting.
The last time I was there, state governments from the US were going there to help to
10 of 1144