Putin's Arctic strategy

302 Pages·2017·4.79 MB·English

by  Elizabeth Buchanan

Putin’s Arctic strategy: conflict or cooperation?

Elizabeth K. Buchanan

A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of The Australian National University
Centre for European Studies, College of Arts and Social Sciences
The Australian National University
September 2017

© Copyright by Elizabeth Buchanan 2017 All Rights Reserved
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Declaration

I hereby declare and confirm that this thesis is entirely the result of my own work
except where otherwise indicated, and has not been submitted, either in whole or
part, for a higher degree or qualification at this or any other university or institute.

Elizabeth K. Buchanan

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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank my colleagues at what has become my academic home – the ANU
Centre for European Studies, in particular Professor Jacqueline Lo. I am forever
grateful for the guidance and unwavering support of my supervisors John Besemeres
and Annmarie Elijah as well as my advisory panel members Stephen Fortescue and
Kyle Wilson. Given the systematic defunding of Russian studies in Australia, this
project relied heavily upon the assistance of those far beyond this country. I thank
Fiona Hill at The Brookings Institution, Washington, for her mentorship whilst hosting
my research during the final project stages. Thanks also to James Nixey at Chatham
House, UK, for hosting my project during its fieldwork stages. Likewise, I am grateful
to Andrei Zagorski at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Russia, for
hosting my fieldwork. I wish to acknowledge Bobo Lo, Philip Hanson, Angela Stent,
Thane Gustafson, Heather Conley, Andy Kuchins and Charlie Ebinger who assisted my
project in an advisory capacity over the past 4 years at one point or another.
I thank all of my interviewees who span the UK, Canada, USA, Russia and Australia. I
am grateful to the many industry representatives who shared commercial insight and
corporate modelling of the Arctic market. Thanks also to my editor, Nigel Brew
(Director, Foreign Affairs and Security section of the Australian Parliamentary Library,
Australian Parliament House), who provided copyediting and proofreading services,
according to the guidelines laid out in the ANU-endorsed national ‘Guidelines for
editing research theses’
Finally, this project would not have succeeded without the support and unwavering
interest in all things Putin from my husband, Chris. I hope I have made our son proud.

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Abstract

The Arctic is widely considered to be a potential flashpoint for international conflict
over access to, and control of, its riches. Russia's assertive foreign and military policies
in recent years have accentuated this perception. This study of Russian Arctic strategy
under Putin proceeds from the notion that Putin’s Russia seeks to regain great power
status on the back of its energy wealth, and argues that it will continue to apply energy
in a coercive nature within the former Soviet Union and the near abroad. However,
when it comes to the Arctic, Russia has no alternative but to approach the region and
its counterparts in a measured and cooperative manner. The hypothesis of this study
is that there is a strong case for Russian cooperation with the West in the Arctic. The
thesis argues this cooperation results from Russia’s technological and investment
requirements from the West; Russia’s solid legal case in the Arctic with regards to the
continental shelf debate; and finally, the strong precedent of cooperation over Arctic
matters. These themes are explored through a neoclassical realist framework. For
now, Russia may continue to try to repair relations with the West, where possible,
including the Arctic and many Western leaders and corporations will want to respond
positively. Even if tensions persist in Russia's near abroad, including the Baltic region,
the 'new cold War' paradigm will not apply to Arctic resources and governance issues.

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List of acronyms

A5 Arctic Five
AAR Alfa Access Renova
AU Assessment Unit
bcm billion cubic meters
BP British Petroleum/Beyond Petroleum
BS Bering Straight
CARA Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal
CEO Chief Executive Officer
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
CLCS Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf
CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Corporation
COSL China Oilfield Services Limited
EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone
EU European Union
FP Foreign Policy
FSB Federal Security Service
FSU Former Soviet Union
GDP Gross Domestic Product
HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acq. Immunodeficiency Syndrome
IASSA International Arctic Social Sciences Association
IASC International Arctic Science Committee
ICBM Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile
IOC International Oil Company
IR International Relations
ISIL Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
KGB Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnost
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
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mcm million cubic meters
MH17 Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NGO Non-Government Organization
NM Nautical Miles
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NRC NATO-Russia Council
NSR Northern Sea Route
NWP North West Passage
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
PhD Doctor of Philosophy
SCRF Security Council of the Russian Federation
TNK Tyumenskaya Neftyanaya Kompaniya
TNK Tyumenskaya Neftyanaya Kompaniya-British Petroleum
UK United Kingdom
UN United Nations
UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
US United States of America
USA United States of America
USSR United States of the Soviet Republics
USGS United States Geological Survey

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List of tables

Table 1: Summary of key foreign policy theories……………………………………………...36
Table 2: Russian foreign policy ideologies………………………………………………………..45
Table 3: Results of 26 March 2000 Presidential election……………….………………….71
Table 4: Tax revenues as a percentage of Russia’s GDP (2000–2004) ………………..73
Table 5: Percentage of siloviki in elite groups from Yeltsin to Putin up to 2004….77
Table 6: Results of 14 March 2004 Presidential election…………………………………….79
Table 7: Gazprom assets in FSU countries (2007) ……………… ………………………..…….82
Table 8: Summary of Klimenko’s study into Arctic policymaking in Russia…………174
Table 9: Precedent of A5 cooperation within the Arctic……………………………………247
Table 10: Application of neoclassical realism to Russian Arctic strategy…………….259

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List of figures

Figure 1: Russia’s original 2001 Arctic claim…………………………………………………..18
Figure 2: A neoclassical realist reading of foreign policy…………………………………34
Figure 3: NATO’s eastward expansion………………………………………..………………….54
Figure 4: Russia’s natural gas pipeline nexus………………………………………..……….68
Figure 5: Oil price during Putin’s first term (2000-2004)……………………………..…74
Figure 6: Ukrainian prices for Russian natural gas (2000–2008)……………………..86
Figure 7: Oil price during Putin’s second term (2004-2008)…………………..……….94
Figure 8: Nord Steam I and Nord Steam II pipelines……………………………….…….100
Figure 9: Oil price dive of 2014……………………………………………………………..……….103
Figure 10: Illustration of the Arctic………………………………………………………….……108
Figure 11: Trajectory of crude oil prices (2000–2015)……………………………….….109
Figure 12: Probability of Arctic hydrocarbons by the USGS CARA findings…..113
Figure 13: Map of the Northern Sea Route in comparison to the Suez Canal….115
Figure 14: Environmental impact of global transportation (grams/tonne-km)…116
Figure 15: Canada’s expected Arctic claim…………………………………………………….122
Figure 16: Denmark’s Arctic claim……………………………………………………………….125
Figure 17: Norwegian Arctic claim……………………………………………………..……….128
Figure 18: Illustration of A5 stakes………………………………………………………….…139
Figure 19: Illustration of maritime zones affected by UNCLOS…………………….142
Figure 20: Map of the Lomonosov Ridge……………………………………………………..144
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Figure 21: Bathymetric map of the Lomonosov Ridge………………………145
Figure 22: Occurrence of ocean oil spills (1970–2014)………… …………..148
Figure 23: Soviet sector claim to the Arctic……………………………………….158
Figure 24: Arktika mission image……………………………………………………….181
Figure 25: 2001 Russian Arctic claim…………………………………………….…...184
Figure 26: Russia’s revised Arctic claim……………………………………………….188
Figure 27: Russia’s evidence of continental shelf prolongation…………….189
Figure 28: Comparison of the 2001 and 2015 Russian Arctic claims……..192
Figure 29: Foot of Russian continental shelf in Okhotsk Sea………………..194
Figure 30: Russia’s military presence in the Arctic……………………………..198
Figure 31: Barents Sea…………………………………………………………………….….205
Figure 32: Disputed area of the Barents Sea………………………………………..207
Figure 33: 1957 USSR-Norway delineation of Varangerfjord…………………209
Figure 34: Barents Sea boundary agreement……………………………………..….213
Figure 35: Map of Pechora, Kara and Barents Seas………………………………222
Figure 36: Rosneft’s Prinovozemelsky field…………………………………………..223
Figure 37: Rosneft-ExxonMobil Arctic agreement areas………………………….227
Figure 38: Oil price (2014–16)……………… ………………….……………………………232
Figure 39: Incidence of ‘Arctic’ in reportage Russian Arctic developments……239
Figure 40: Oil price (2000–2016)……………… ……………………………………….244
Figure 41: Territorial claims in the Arctic as at July 2016…………………251
Figure 42: A neoclassical realist reading of Russian Arctic strategy (2000-2016)..267

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Preface

Given the scope of the thesis, as limited by my PhD candidature period and pregnancy,
the study is capped at July 2016. Events since are not explored. However, these events
(including Brexit, Donald Trump’s ascendency to US President, the continued global
slump in oil prices, all coupled with enduring Russia-West tensions) have served as an
interesting litmus test for this thesis.
It is too early to determine what impact the ongoing Congress and intelligence
investigations into the Trump campaign and administration’s ties with Russia will have
for US-Russia relations and a potential ‘reset-plus’. Should Trump withstand inquiries,
we should expect to see cooperation maintained between Russia and the West within
the Arctic. That said, Russia is still committed to strengthening its military position in
the Arctic as part of its overall planning to be able to confront NATO. Cooperation may
yet take a back seat to competition between Russia and the West in the Arctic.
Neoclassical realism would continue to serve as a useful framework to assess the
variables responsible for such a shift.
Consistent with my hypothesis, the Arctic has withstood the spill-over effect of soured
Russia-West relations elsewhere.1 Cooperation was sustained between Russia and the
West in the Arctic throughout the US Chairmanship of the Arctic Council. Current
signals support the cooperation hypothesis of this thesis, further refuting the
applicability of the ‘new Cold War’ paradigm to the Arctic.

1 For further discussion on the balance between conflict and cooperation between Russia and the
West in the Arctic see: Closson, S (2017) ‘Russian foreign policy in the Arctic: balancing cooperation
and competition’ Kennan Cable 24: Wilson Centre. For further insight into Russia’s militarization in the
Arctic despite its commitment to cooperation see: Klimenko, E (2017) ‘Russia and the Arctic: an end to
cooperation?’ Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
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