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Prediction of Air Traffic Controller Trainee
Selection and Training Success Using Cognitive
Ability and Biodata
Karen D. Fox
Walden University
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College of Social and Behavioral Sciences
This is to certify that the doctoral dissertation by
Karen D. Fox
has been found to be complete and satisfactory in all respects,
and that any and all revisions required by
the review committee have been made.
Review Committee
Dr. John Deaton, Committee Chairperson, Psychology Faculty
Dr. Anthony Perry, Committee Member, Psychology Faculty
Dr. John Schmidt, University Reviewer, Psychology Faculty
Chief Academic Officer
Eric Riedel, Ph.D.
Walden University
2014
Abstract
Prediction of Air Traffic Controller Trainee Selection and Training Success Using
Cognitive Ability and Biodata
By
Karen D. Fox
MBA, University of Southern California, 1995
BS, Santa Clara University, 1989
Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
Organizational Psychology
Walden University
March 2014
Abstract
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has experienced decreased return on investment
caused by hiring too many air traffic controller specialists (ATCSs) who performed poorly in
field training, thus failing to become certified professional controllers (CPCs). Based on
Schmidt and Hunter’s theory of job performance and biodata theory, this quantitative, archival
study examined whether factors of cognitive ability and biodata could predict job performance
status of 2 generations of ATCSs, poststrike (PS) and next generation (NG) controllers. For
each generation of controllers, binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine if
any of the independent variables—transmuted composite (TMC) score for PS controllers, Air
Traffic and Selection and Training (AT-SAT) test score for NG controllers, average of high
school arithmetic/math letter grade, overall high school average letter grade, self-estimation of
time to become fully effective in the ATCS role, self-estimation of percentile ranking in the FAA
program relative to the class, size of neighborhood raised, or socioeconomic status—are
significant predictors of job performance status for controllers as measured by whether they pass
the field OJT (i.e., certified or still in training, or failed certification or left training). The
regression results for the PS and NG controllers were found to be statistically significant ((cid:548)2 (23)
= 68.377, p < .001) and ((cid:548)2 (17) = 99.496, p < .001), respectively. Findings that overall high
school grade point average and socioeconomic status significantly predicted ATCS job
performance for both PS and NG controllers could influence the FAA’s use of revised biodata to
better predict ATCS job performance. Further research should include studies of socioeconomic
status, gender, and race to address new evidence that the AT-SAT has adverse impact.
Prediction of Air Traffic Controller Trainee Selection and Training Success Using
Cognitive Ability and Biodata
By
Karen D. Fox
MBA, University of Southern California, 1995
BS, Santa Clara University, 1989
Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
Organizational Psychology
Walden University
March 2014
UMI Number: 3614818
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UMI 3614818
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Dedication
I dedicate this dissertation to my husband, Brian, who has been my biggest
advocate with his unwavering belief in my ability to accomplish anything I chose to do. I
thank my parents, Rosita and Dan, for their love and support, and for teaching me the
values of perseverance and hard work. I also acknowledge my steadfast canine
companions, Wolfgang and Star, who were by my side every day as I worked to obtain
this degree.
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank Dr. Dana Broach, an IO psychologist employed with the
FAA, for generously providing me with his expertise, time, and archival data that enabled
me to complete this study. Next, I would like to mention my friends, Petra Campos,
Pascal Chen, Dr. Philip Miller, Bonnie Wilde, and Mary Van Horn for their belief in my
capabilities that prompted my decision to begin this endeavor several years ago. I would
like to thank my dissertation committee, Dr. John Deaton, Dr. Anthony Perry, and Dr.
John Schmidt for their expertise, candor, responsiveness, and valuable feedback.
Table of Contents
List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... vi(cid:3)
List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii(cid:3)
Chapter 1: Introduction to the Study ....................................................................................1(cid:3)
Introduction ....................................................................................................................1(cid:3)
General FAA ATCS Background ..................................................................................3(cid:3)
Types of ATCS ....................................................................................................... 4(cid:3)
Overview of FAA ATCS Selection and Training Process...................................... 4(cid:3)
Two Generations of ATC Controllers..................................................................... 5(cid:3)
Stages of FAA ATCS Selection and Training ........................................................ 7(cid:3)
Problem Statement .........................................................................................................9(cid:3)
Purpose of the Study ....................................................................................................10(cid:3)
Research Questions and Hypotheses ...........................................................................10(cid:3)
Research Question 1: PS Controllers .................................................................... 11(cid:3)
Hypothesis 1: PS Controllers ................................................................................ 11(cid:3)
Research Question 2: NG Controllers................................................................... 12(cid:3)
Hypothesis 2: NG Controllers ............................................................................... 12(cid:3)
Research Objectives .............................................................................................. 13(cid:3)
Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................14(cid:3)
Significance of the Study .............................................................................................15(cid:3)
Nature of the Study ......................................................................................................16(cid:3)
i
