Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents

584 Pages·1998·11.33 MB·English

RECEIVED
NUREG/CR-4674
JAN 3 0 1396 ORNL/NOAC-232
OSTI
Vol. 22
Precursors to Potential Severe
Core Damage Accidents: 1994
A Status Report
Appendix I
Prepared by
R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, L. N. Vanden Heuvel
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Prepared for
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
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NUREG/CR-4674
ORNL/NOAC-232
Vol. 22
Precursors to Potential Severe
Core Damage Accidents: 1994
A Status Report
Appendix I
Manuscript Completed: December 1995
Date Published: December 1995
Prepared by
R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, B. W. Dolan,* J. W. Minarick,* L. N. Vanden Heuvel
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Managed by Lockheed Martin Energy Systems, Inc.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6285
Prepared for
Safety Programs Division
Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001
NRC FIN B0435
♦Science Applications International Corporation, Oak Ridge, TN 37831
DISTRIBUTION OF THS DOCUMENT IS UNLIMTED
Previous Reports in Series
1. J. W. Minarick and C. A. Kukielka, Union Carbide Corp.^uclear Div., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; and Science
Applications, Inc., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents: 1969-1979, A Status Report, USNRC
Report NUREG/CR-2497 (ORNL/NSIC-18/V1 and V2), June 1982.
2. W. B. Cottrell, J. W. Minarick, P. N. Austin, E. W. Hagen, and J. D. Harris, Martin Marietta Energy Systems,
Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; and Science Applications International Corp., Precursors to Potential Severe Core
Damage Accidents: 1980-81, A Status Report, USNRC Report NUREG/CR-3591, Vols. 1 and 2
(ORNL/NSIC-217/V1 and V2), July 1984.
3. J. W. Minarick et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; Science Applications
International Corp.; and Professional Analysis, Inc., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents:
1985, A Status Report, USNRC Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232), Vols. 1 and 2, December 1986.
4. J. W. Minarick et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; Science Applications
International Corp.; and Professional Analysis, Inc., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents:
1984, A Status Report, USNRC Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232), Vols. 3 and 4, May 1987.
5. J. W. Minarick et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; Science Applications
International Corp.; and Professional Analysis, Inc., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents:
1986, A Status Report, USNRC Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232), Vols. 5 and 6, May 1988.
6. J. W. Minarick et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; Science Applications
International Corp.; and Professional Analysis, Inc., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents:
1987, A Status Report, USNRC Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232), Vols. 7 and 8, July 1989.
7. J. W. Minarick et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; Science Applications
International Corp.; and Professional Analysis, Inc., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents:
1988, A Status Report,USm.C Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232), Vols. 9 and 10, February 1990.
8. J. W. Minarick et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; Science Applications
International Corp.; and Professional Analysis, Inc., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents:
1989, A Status Report, USNRC Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232), Vols. 11 and 12, August 1990.
9. J. W. Minarick et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab.; Science Applications
International Corp.; and Professional Analysis, Inc., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents:
1990, A Status Report, USNRC Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232), Vols. 13 and 14, August 1991.
10. J. W. Minarick et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab., and Science Applications
International Corp., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents: 1991, A Status Report, USNRC
Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232), Vols: 15 and 16, September 1992.
11. D. A. Copinger et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab., and Science Applications
International Corp., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents: 1992, A Status Report, USNRC
Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232), Vols. 17 and 18, December 1993.
12. L. N. Vanden Heuvel et al., Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab., and Science Applications
International Corp., Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents: 1993, A Status Report, USNRC
Report NUREG/CR-4674 (ORNL/NOAC-232),Vols. 19 and 20, September 1994.
NUREG/CR-4674, Volumes 21 and 22 ii
ABSTRACT
Nine operational events that affected eleven commercial light-water reactors (LWRs) during 1994 and that are considered
to be precursors to potential severe core damage are described. All these events had conditional probabilities of subsequent
severecoredamagegreaterthanorequalto l.Ox 10 .These events were identified by computer-screening the 1994 licensee
event reports from commercial LWRs to identify those that could be potential precursors. Candidate precursors were then
selected and evaluated in a process similar to that used in previous assessments. Selected events underwent engineering
evaluation that identified, analyzed, and documented the precursors. Other events designated by the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission (NRC) also underwent a similar evaluation. Finally, documented precursors were submitted for review by
licensees and NRC headquarters and regional offices to ensure that the plant design and its response to the precursor were
correctly characterized. This study is a continuation of earlier work, which evaluated 1969-1981 and 1984-1993 events.
The report discusses the general rationale for this study, the selection and documentation of events as precursors, and the
estimation of conditional probabilities of subsequent severe core damage for events. This document is bound in two volumes:
Vol. 21 contains the main report and Appendices A-H; Vol. 22 contains Appendix I.
iii NUREG/CR-4674, Volumes 21 and 22

Contents
Previous Reports in Series ii
Abstract Hi
Preface vii
Foreword ix
Acknowledgments xi
1. Introduction 1-1
1.1 Background 1-1
1.2 Current Process 1-1
2. Selection Criteria and Quantification 2-1
2.1 Accident Sequence Precursor Selection Criteria 2-1
2.1.1 Precursors 2-1
2.1.2 Potentially Significant Events Considered Impractical to Analyze 2-4
2.1.3 Containment-Related Events 2-4
2.1.4 "Interesting" Events 2-4
2.2 Precursor Quantification 2-4
2.3 Review of Precursor Documentation 2-5
2.4 Precursor Documentation Format 2-5
2.5 Potential Sources of Error 2-7
3. Results . . .' 3-1
3.1 Tabulation of Precursor Events 3-1
3.1.1 Potentially Significant Events That Were Impractical to Analyze 3-4
3.1.2 Containment-Related Events 3-4
3.1.3 "Interesting" Events 3-4
3.2 Important Precursors 3-4
3.2.1 Wolf Creek, RCS Blows Down to Refueling Water Storage Tank
During Hot Shutdown 3-4
3.2.2 Haddam Neck, Power Operated Relief Valves and Vital 480-V ac
Bus Degraded 3-6
3.3 Number of Precursors Identified 3-8
3.4 Insights 3-8
4. Glossary 4-1
5. References 5-1
NUREG/CR-4674, Volumes 21 and 22 v
Appendices
Appendix A: ASP Calculational Methodology A.l-1
Appendix B: ASP Models B.l-1
Appendix C: At-Power Precursors C.l-1
Appendix D: Shutdown Precursors D.l-1
Appendix E: Potentially Significant Events Considered Impractical to Analyze E.l-1
Appendix F: Containment-Related Events F.l-1
Appendix G: "Interesting" Events G.l-1
Appendix H: Resolution of Comments on the Preliminary 1994 ASP Analyses H.l-1
Appendix I: License Event Reports and Augmented Inspection Team Reports Cited in
Appendices C-G 1.1-1
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 ASP analysis process 2-3
Figure 2.2 ASP review process 2-6
List of Tables
Table 3.1 At-power precursors involving unavailabilities sorted by plant 3-2
Table 3.2 At-power precursors involving initiating events sorted by plant 3-2
Table 3.3 Shutdown precursors involving initiating events sorted by plant 3-2
Table 3.4 At-power precursors involving unavailabilities sorted by
conditional core damage probability 3-3
Table 3.5 At-power precursors involving initiating events sorted by
conditional core damage probability 3-3
Table 3.6 Shutdown precursors involving initiating events sorted by
conditional core damage probability 3-3
Table 3.7 Number of precursors by year 3-8
Table 3.8 Number of precursors by event type 3-9
vi NUREG/CR-4674, Volumes 21 and 22
PREFACE
The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program was established by the Nuclear Operations Analysis Center at Oak Ridge
National Laboratory (ORNL) in the summer of 1979. The first •'major report of that program was published in June 1982
and received extensive review. Twelve reports documenting the review of operational events for precursors have been
published in this program (see Chap. 5). These reports describe events that occurred from 1969 through 1993, excluding
1982 and 1983. They have been completed on a yearly basis since 1987.
The current effort was undertaken on behalf of the Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data of the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC). The NRC Project Manager is P. D. O'Reilly.
The methodology developed and utilized in the ASP Program permits a reasonable estimate of the significance of operational
events, including observed human and system interactions. The present effort for 1994 is a continuation of the assessment
undertaken in the previous reports for operational events that occurred in 1969-1981 and 1984-1993.
The preliminary analyses of the 1994 events were sent for review to NRC staff and licensees for those plants for which
potential ASP events were identified. This is similar to the review process used for the 1992 and 1993 events. In addition,
the 1994 events were also independently reviewed as part of NRC's policy regarding probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)
activities. All comments were evaluated, and analyses were revised as appropriate.
Reanalyses typically focused on and gave credit for equipment and procedures that provided additional protection against
core damage. These additional features were beyond what was normally included in ASP analyses of events prior to 1992.
Therefore, comparing and trending analysis results from prior years is more difficult because analysis results before 1992
may have been different if additional information had been solicited from the licensees and incorporated.
For 1994 the total number of precursors identified is less than that of past years. This is due at least in part to incorporating
feedback on equipment, systems, procedures, etc., such that events initially identified as potential precursors with a
conditional core damage probability somewhat greater than 10 were reanalyzed resulting in a value less than 10 , which
is the threshold for rejection. In addition, new models were used for the analysis of 1994 events. These models utilize ASP
class-based event trees and plant-specific linked fault trees. The models are based on previous work performed by ORNL.
The models were converted into the Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System software by the Idaho National
Engineering Laboratory. These new models, which obviously influence the calculation of conditional core damage
probabilities for events, represent another factor for consideration when comparing results for 1994 with those from previous
years.
The operational events selected in the ASP Program form a unique data base of historical system failures, multiple losses
ofredundancy, and infrequent core damage initiators. These events are useful in identifying significant weaknesses in design
and operation, for trends analysis concerning industry performance and the impact of regulatory actions, and for PRA-related
information.
Gary T. Mays, Director
Nuclear Operations Analysis Center
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
P.O. Box 2009
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-8065
[phone]
NUREG/CR-4674, Volumes 21 and 22 vii