Table Of ContentPolitics of Democratic Breakdown
Democratic breakdown as a political and historic event can impact the fate
of millions, if not hundreds of millions of people, by changing the political
complexion of a country. This book attempts to systematically explain why
democracies collapse.
The author’s main theoretical argument is based on the examination of
two factors. One is political cleavages among voters. These can cause serious
political conflicts and may lead to fierce political confrontation and major
upheaval at the society level. The other revolves around the types of political
and institutional arrangements under democratic regimes. Centrifugal demo
cratic regimes are likely to weaken government capacity or state capacity,
rendering governments incapable of effectively resolving political conflicts
and, when these two factors come together, political conflicts are less likely
to be controlled effectively. These situations can evolve into serious political
crises and eventually lead to the collapse of democratic regimes. The empir
ical research of this book is based on a comparative historical analysis of
Germany, Nigeria, Chile, and India.
Examining democratic collapses from both theoretical and empirical
perspectives, this book will be of interest to those engaged in the study of
democracy, Political Science, Comparative Politics, and Political Theory.
Gangsheng Bao is a Professor of Political Science at the School of Interna
tional Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, China. He earned
his PhD in Political Science from Peking University (2012) and was a
visiting scholar at the Department of Government, Harvard University
(academic year 2019–2 020). He focuses on political theory and comparative
politics; his other work includes The Logic of Democracy (2018). Dr. Bao’s
online course “30 Lectures on Politics” has more than 38,000 students. His
book was named the “Best Social Science Book of the Year 2014” by The
Beijing News, and he was recognized as the “Best Author of the Year 2018”
by The Economic Observer.
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Politics of Democratic Breakdown
Gangsheng Bao
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Politics of Democratic
Breakdown
Gangsheng Bao
First published 2022
by Routledge
4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2022 Gangsheng Bao
The right of Gangsheng Bao to be identified as author of this work
has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised
in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or
hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information
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and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing- in- Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data
Names: Bao, Gangsheng, author.
Title: Politics of democratic breakdown / Gangsheng Bao.
Other titles: Min zhu beng kui de zheng zhi xue. English
Description: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2022. |
Series: China perspectives | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2021057007 (print) | LCCN 2021057008 (ebook) |
ISBN 9781032265865 (hardback) | ISBN 9781032266169 (paperback) |
ISBN 9781003289098 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Democracy. | New democracies. | Political stability. |
New democracies–Case studies. | Political stability–Case studies.
Classification: LCC JC423 .B234713 2022 (print) |
LCC JC423 (ebook) | DDC 321.8–dc23/eng/20220125
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021057007
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021057008
ISBN: 978 1 032 26586 5 (hbk)
ISBN: 978 1 032 26616 9 (pbk)
ISBN: 978 1 003 28909 8 (ebk)
DOI: 10.4324/9781003289098
Typeset in Times New Roman
by Newgen Publishing UK
Contents
List of Figures vii
List of Tables viii
Preface xi
PART I
Theory of Democratic Breakdown 1
1 Introduction: A New Explanation of
Democratic Breakdown 3
2 The Logic of Political Cleavages 47
3 Political Institutions and Centrifugal Democracy 83
PART II
Case Studies 119
4 Democratic Breakdown in the Weimar Republic 121
5 Ethnic Conflicts and the Dilemma of Democracy
in Nigeria 180
6 Class Conflict and the Failure of Chile’s Democracy 238
7 The Miracle of Indian Democracy and Its Constitution 280
vi Contents
PART III
Conclusion and Implications 349
8 Conclusion: How to Avoid the Failure of Young
Democracies? 351
Bibliography 369
Index 384
Figures
1.1 Logic of democratic breakdown 20
1.2 Political cleavages among voters, political institutions, and
democratic stability 28
2.1 Expansion of voting rights and movement of voters’ political
preference 51
2.2 Ideological tendencies of voters of different classes 56
2.3 Change of class cleavage and class voting in the Western
industrial democracies 58
2.4 Comparison of class cleavage of voters 72
2.5 Major political issues and degree of political cleavage of voters 73
2.6 Three types of major political issues 74
3.1 Three levels of political institutional arrangements and their
main institutions 92
3.2 Centripetal and centrifugal incentives of different political
institutions 106
3.3 Ideal types of centrifugal democracies and centripetal
democracies 108
5.1 Nigeria’s map of administrative divisions: from four regions to
36 states 229
7.1 Percentage of votes of the major left wing, middle, and
right wing parties of India in the 1962 election 306
7.2 Trend in voter turnout in the Indian Lok Sabha
elections: 1952– 2009 312
7.3 Trend in India’s political stability indicator: 1996– 2020 320
7.4 Comparison of accountability and political stability indicators
between India and other country groups: 2020 321
Tables
1.1 Democratic breakdowns during the third wave: 1974– 2006 9
1.2 Four types of democratic stability 27
3.1 Main characteristics of centrifugal and centripetal democracies 108
4.1 Votes obtained by the major parties in the German
Reichstag: 1871– 1912 (%) 135
4.2 Number of seats and seat share of major political parties in
the Weimar National Assembly and first Reichstag elections 144
4.3 Number of seats and vote share of major parties in the second
and fourth Weimar Reichstag elections 148
4.4 Workday losses in Germany due to worker strikes and factory
closures: 1924– 8 150
4.5 Changes in Germany’s basic economic indicators: 1929– 32 151
4.6 Number of Reichstag meetings, bills, and “state of
emergency” orders: 1930– 2 152
4.7 Number of seats and vote share of major parties in the fifth
and sixth Weimar Reichstag elections 154
4.8 Duration of the Weimar governments and their parliamentary
support: 1919– 33 163
4.9 Growth of the Nazi Party’s votes and Reichstag seats 166
4.10 Economic achievements in early Nazi Germany: Gross
national product and unemployment 170
5.1 Religious composition of the population in the three regions
of Nigeria in the 1950s 197
5.2 Symbols of major political parties in Nigeria’s 1959 election 199
5.3 Geographic distribution and population ratio of major ethnic
groups in Nigeria: 1952/ 53 and 1963 200
5.4 Votes and seats of the major political parties in Nigeria in the
1959 election 206
5.5 Results of Nigeria’s 1964/ 65 federal election: structure of seats 212
5.6 Growth of two major parties in their own regions: 1959 and
1964/ 65 elections 212
6.1 Occupational breakdown of Chile’s economically active
population in 1970 244
Tables ix
6.2 Growth of voter participation in presidential elections: 1925– 70 253
6.3 Electoral results by party in Chile, 1957– 73(%) 254
6.4 Occupations of urban land, factories, and rural estates in
Chile: 1967– 70 261
6.5 Increase in workers’ strikes and participants in Chile: 1958– 72 261
6.6 Inflation rate in Chile: 1964– 73 270
7.1 Votes and seats of political parties in the Lok Sabha: 1952– 62 304
7.2 Proportion of votes and seats of major political parties in the
Indian Lok Sabha elections: 1984– 2009 315
7.3 Distribution of the seats of five “national” parties in the Lok
Sabha in different states: 2009 319
7.4 Vote and seat shares of the Congress Party in the House of
the People: 1952– 84 327
7.5 Party structure and duration of Indian coalition
governments: 1989– 2014 331
7.6 Proportion of votes and seats of the two major party alliances
in the Lok Sabha elections: 1999– 2009 334
