Table Of ContentNATIONAL INSTITUTE ON DRUG ABUSE
Monitoring the Future
National Survey Results on Drug Use 1975–2007
Volume II
College Students
& Adults Ages 19–45
2007
National Institutes of Health
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
MONITORING THE FUTURE
NATIONAL SURVEY RESULTS ON DRUG USE, 1975–2007
Volume II
College Students and Adults Ages 19–45
by
Lloyd D. Johnston, Ph.D.
Patrick M. O’Malley, Ph.D.
Jerald G. Bachman, Ph.D.
John E. Schulenberg, Ph.D.
The University of Michigan
Institute for Social Research
National Institute on Drug Abuse
6001 Executive Boulevard
Bethesda, Maryland 20892
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES
National Institutes of Health
2008
This publication was written by the principal
investigators and staff of the Monitoring the Future
project, at the Institute for Social Research, the
University of Michigan, under Research Grants No.
R01 DA 01411 and R01 DA 016575 from the
National Institute on Drug Abuse.
The findings and conclusions in this report are
those of the authors and do not necessarily
represent the views of the NIH.
Public Domain Notice
All material appearing in this volume is in the public
domain and may be reproduced or copied without
permission from the Institute or the authors.
Citation of the source is appreciated.
Recommended Citation
Johnston, L. D., O’Malley, P. M., Bachman, J. G., &
Schulenberg, J. E. (2008). Monitoring the Future
national survey results on drug use, 1975–2007:
Volume II, College students and adults ages 19–45
(NIH Publication No. 08-6418B). Bethesda, MD:
National Institute on Drug Abuse.
National Institute on Drug Abuse
NIH Publication No. 08-6418B
October 2008
ABBREVIATED CONTENTS*
Detailed Contents ....................................................................................................................................... v
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ ix
List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. xiii
Chapter 1 Introduction................................................................................................................1
Chapter 2 Key Findings: An Overview and Integration across Five Populations.................5
Chapter 3 Study Design and Procedures .................................................................................57
Chapter 4 Prevalence of Drug Use in Early and Middle Adulthood.....................................77
Chapter 5 Trends in Drug Use in Early and Middle Adulthood .........................................125
Chapter 6 Attitudes and Beliefs about Drugs among Young Adults...................................181
Chapter 7 The Social Context .................................................................................................199
Chapter 8 Prevalence of Drug Use among College Students ...............................................235
Chapter 9 Trends in Drug Use among College Students......................................................245
Chapter 10 Risk and Protective Behaviors Related to HIV/AIDS ........................................287
Index ............................................................................................................................................313
*See next page for Detailed Contents.
iii
iv
DETAILED CONTENTS
Chapter 1 Introduction...............................................................................................................1
Surveys of College Students ......................................................................................................1
Surveys of Young Adults and Those Ages 35, 40, and 45 ........................................................2
General Purposes of the Research..............................................................................................2
Chapter 2 Key Findings: An Overview and Integration across Five Populations................5
Trends in Illicit Drug Use—The Advent of Cohort Effects ......................................................5
College–Noncollege Differences in Illicit Drug Use.........................................................20
Male–Female Differences in Illicit Drug Use....................................................................21
Trends in Alcohol Use .............................................................................................................21
College–Noncollege Differences in Alcohol Use..............................................................22
Male–Female Differences in Alcohol Use.........................................................................23
Trends in Cigarette Smoking ...................................................................................................23
Age- and Cohort-Related Differences in Cigarette Smoking ............................................25
College–Noncollege Differences in Cigarette Smoking....................................................26
Male–Female Differences in Cigarette Smoking...............................................................27
Racial/Ethnic Comparisons......................................................................................................27
Drug Use in Eighth Grade........................................................................................................29
Drug Use by Age 45 ................................................................................................................30
Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................................................31
Chapter 3 Study Design and Procedures ................................................................................57
Research Design and Procedures for the Surveys of Twelfth Graders....................................57
The Population under Study...............................................................................................58
The Omission of Dropouts.................................................................................................58
Sampling Procedures and Sample Weights .......................................................................58
Questionnaire Administration............................................................................................59
Questionnaire Format.........................................................................................................59
Research Design and Procedures for the Surveys of Eighth and Tenth Graders.....................59
Mode of Administration.....................................................................................................60
Questionnaire Forms and Sample Proportions ..................................................................61
Research Design and Procedures for the Follow-Up Surveys of Twelfth Graders .................62
Follow-Up Procedures .......................................................................................................62
Follow-Up Questionnaire Format ......................................................................................63
Representativeness and Sample Accuracy...............................................................................63
School Participation ...........................................................................................................63
Student Participation..........................................................................................................65
Sampling Accuracy of the Estimates .................................................................................66
Panel Retention ........................................................................................................................66
v
DETAILED CONTENTS (continued)
The Problem of Panel Attrition..........................................................................................66
Response Rates Attained....................................................................................................67
The Impact of Panel Attrition on Research Results...........................................................68
Effects on Relational Analyses ..........................................................................................70
Validity of the Measures of Self-Reported Drug Use..............................................................70
Consistency and the Measurement of Trends ....................................................................71
Chapter 4 Prevalence of Drug Use in Early and Middle Adulthood....................................77
A Note on Adjusted Lifetime Prevalence Estimates................................................................78
Prevalence of Drug Use as a Function of Age.........................................................................80
Prevalence Comparisons for Subgroups of Young Adults ......................................................85
Gender Differences ............................................................................................................85
Regional Differences .........................................................................................................87
Population Density Differences .........................................................................................88
Chapter 5 Trends in Drug Use in Early and Middle Adulthood.........................................125
Trends in Prevalence: Early and Middle Adulthood..............................................................126
Trends for Important Subgroups of Young Adults ................................................................135
Gender Differences in Trends..........................................................................................135
Regional Differences in Trends .......................................................................................139
Population Density Differences in Trends.......................................................................143
Chapter 6 Attitudes and Beliefs about Drugs among Young Adults..................................181
Perceived Harmfulness of Drugs ...........................................................................................181
Personal Disapproval of Drug Use ........................................................................................186
A Further Commentary: Cohort Differences and Their Implications for Prevention
and Theory .......................................................................................................................189
Chapter 7 The Social Context ................................................................................................199
Peer Norms among Adults .....................................................................................................199
Current Perceptions of Friends’ Attitudes .......................................................................200
vi
DETAILED CONTENTS (continued)
Trends in Peer Norms ......................................................................................................201
Adults’ Exposure to Drug Use through Friends and Others ..................................................202
Exposure to Drug Use......................................................................................................203
Trends in Exposure to Drug Use......................................................................................205
Perceived Availability of Drugs among Adults .....................................................................207
Perceived Availability......................................................................................................207
Trends in Perceived Availability .....................................................................................209
Chapter 8 Prevalence of Drug Use among College Students ..............................................235
Prevalence of Drug Use among College Students versus Those Not Enrolled in College....236
Gender Differences in Prevalence of Use among College Students......................................238
Chapter 9 Trends in Drug Use among College Students.....................................................245
Trends in Prevalence 1980–2007: College Students versus Those Not
Enrolled in College ..........................................................................................................246
Gender Differences in Trends among College Students........................................................252
Chapter 10 Risk and Protective Behaviors Related to HIV/AIDS .......................................287
Limitations .............................................................................................................................288
Sample Sizes and Trend Estimation ......................................................................................289
Adjusting for the Effects of Panel Attrition...........................................................................289
Prevalence/Frequency of Risk Behaviors: 21- to 30-Year-Olds............................................291
Injection Drug Use...........................................................................................................291
Needle Sharing.................................................................................................................292
Contacts with Multiple Partners.......................................................................................292
Contacts with Partners of the Same Gender ....................................................................293
Number of Partners among Those with Same-Gender Partners ......................................294
Needle Sharing among Those with Same-Gender Partners.............................................294
Donating Blood................................................................................................................295
Prevalence of Protective Behaviors .......................................................................................295
Condom Use.....................................................................................................................296
Getting Tested for HIV ....................................................................................................297
Trends in the Prevalence or Frequency of Risk Behaviors....................................................298
Trends in the Prevalence or Frequency of Protective Behaviors...........................................298
Index ............................................................................................................................................313
vii
viii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1. Trends in Lifetime Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs for 8th, 10th,
and 12th Graders, College Students, and Young Adults (Ages 19–28).................35
Table 2-2. Trends in Annual Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs for 8th, 10th,
and 12th Graders, College Students, and Young Adults (Ages 19–28).................42
Table 2-3. Trends in 30-Day Prevalence of Use of Various Drugs for 8th, 10th,
and 12th Graders, College Students, and Young Adults (Ages 19–28).................48
Table 2-4. Trends in 30-Day Prevalence of Daily Use of Various Drugs for 8th,
10th, and 12th Graders, College Students, and Young Adults
(Ages 19–28) .53
Table 3-1. Sample Sizes and Response Rates .........................................................................73
Table 4-1. Prevalence of Use of Various Types of Drugs by Gender among
Respondents of Modal Ages 19–30, 2007 .............................................................90
Table 4-2. Lifetime Prevalence of Use of Various Types of Drugs by Subgroups
among Respondents of Modal Ages 19–30, 2007 .................................................93
Table 4-3. Annual Prevalence of Use of Various Types of Drugs by Subgroups
among Respondents of Modal Ages 19–30, 2007 .................................................96
Table 4-4. Thirty-Day Prevalence of Use of Various Types of Drugs by Subgroups
among Respondents of Modal Ages 19–30, 2007 .................................................99
Table 4-5. Thirty-Day Prevalence of Daily Use of Various Types of Drugs by
Subgroups among Respondents of Modal Ages 19–30, 2007 .............................102
Table 5-1. Trends in Lifetime Prevalence of Various Types of Drugs among
Respondents of Modal Ages 19–28 .....................................................................149
Table 5-2. Trends in Annual Prevalence of Various Types of Drugs among
Respondents of Modal Ages 19–28 .....................................................................151
Table 5-3. Trends in 30-Day Prevalence of Various Types of Drugs among
Respondents of Modal Ages 19–28 .....................................................................152
Table 5-4. Trends in 30-Day Prevalence of Daily Use of Various Types of Drugs
among Respondents of Modal Ages 19–28 .........................................................153
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