Metrics and Methods for Improving Airline Schedule Reliability

164 Pages·2013·13.27 MB·English

Metrics and Methods for Improving Airline Schedule
Reliability
By
Massimo Morin
M.S. Software Engineering
University "Ca'Foscari"of Venice, 1996
Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Partial Fulfillment of
the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Transportation
at the
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
September 2001
@ 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
All rights reserved
Signature of the author............. .. ......... . ........ .. ............
me ero ics and A rautics
Sp ber 2001
Center for Transpe ation Studies
. - - /
Ce rtifie d by . .................. ................ ... ......................... p. ............
John-Paul Clarke
Assistant Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Thesis supervisor
A cce pted by ............................................. ..........
Wallace E. Vander Velde
MASSACHUSITS INSTITUTt ~ Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics
OFTECHNOLOGY T Chair, Committee on Graduate Students
-AUG 13 2002
AERO
LIBRARIES
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Metrics and Methods for Improving Airline Schedule
Reliability
By
Massimo Morin
Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Partial Fulfillment of
the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Transportation
Abstract
Airline scheduling is a daunting task. Much time and resources are spent by airlines
developing a schedule that meets expectations of profitability and competitiveness. Most
of the time, however, the reliability aspect has a minor, if any, role in such a process. In
reality disruption of the schedule occurs due to unforeseen events such as weather
conditions, traffic congestion, and mechanical problems. The outcomes of these events
are cancellations and delays. The impact that these disruptions have on airline
operations is not only the increased cost for system maintenance and recovery, but also
the loss of profitability and the perception of poor and unreliable service for the flying
customer.
In this thesis we present an analysis of the schedule design process, highlight the
drawbacks of the current proceedings and outline of new and more flexible framework
for schedule design. We define a reliability measure, the Option Value, and a way of
comparing flights based on the reliability they are providing, via the Option Disruption
Value. The idea of reliability is based on the concept of flight performance: a flight is
more reliable if it is able to match or outperform the on-time performance of the flights
that leaves its origin station and arrives at its final destination at or near its arrival and
departure times.
Based on these two measurements, we quantify the robustness and coverage of a
sample schedule. Alternative passenger ratings are defined based on the concept of
alternative itineraries (Coverage) and alternative independent itineraries (Robustness)
that connect two locations. These are the Flight Options and the Flight Protection
Options, respectively.
Fifteen methods to modify flight schedule are proposed. One method,
Reduce/increase Flight Slack Time (R/IFTS) was evaluated. Results indicate that
R/IFTS was effective in increasing reliability in 70% of the flight considered, but that
other methods need to be employed if reliability is to be increased further.
Thesis Supervisor: John-Paul Clarke
Title: Assistant Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics
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To My Parents and Friends, Here and Abroad.
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Acknowledgements
My sincere gratitude goes to Professor John-Paul Clarke for his constant understanding
and support. Without him this document could have taken much longer. Thank you, JP.
A big thanks goes also to my lab mates, especially the one in the Garden Corner,
who so patiently and kindly help me out in the difficult and crazy times.
Above all, I owe a big thank you to:
1. Francis Carr. Without his help with Mathlab and the patience to listen and
explain statistical analysis to me, I would have been still trying to figure out what
the heck is a convolution of functions.
2. Terence Fan. His deep understanding of airline operations and the
transportation business has been a big boost to the development of the
economic analysis about the protection options. Thank you Terrence, I know it
takes a while but after all I think I got what you were saying ;-)
3. Terran Melconian. His support in configuring my computer and keeping my
workstation and myself up to date has been a daunting, but I hope rewarding,
task. Thank you Terran, also for reading this long thesis: your comments have
been greatly appreciated.
4. Jay Falker. The very first person to give credit to my research, maybe because
he only had a couple of hours to spare. I went a long way since our first talk!
5. Last but not least Manuel "Chico" Roth. Partner in crime during hard times with
MS Windows TM, MS Word TM 1, deadlines, and critical issues that amazingly arise
only when you are writing the final thesis draft. Writing a thesis is always a
daunting task but it can be much easier if we are two struggling to meet the
closing dates. Good luck, Chico, with your dissertation!
I need also to thank everybody who supported me, from my previous company
boss, John Pararas, and my senior project manager Albert "Al" Asber, to the
professors her at MIT who help me out understanding the deep implications of
transportation issues, in particular in the Air Transportation Field.
I thank also the Scopone Scientifico Knights at honorem, Chico, my partner
Francis, Jonathan "The Canadian" and Nhut. Guys finally you learned how to play a
serious game. Thank for letting me winning all the time, though.
Finally big thanks go also to all the friends and people who directly or indirectly
stayed near me during happy and less happy times. A very special thank you goes to
Irma for being so patience and understanding with me. Thanks, dear, you made the
difference!
In the end, I still own a big thank you, even if most of the time it is unspoken, to my
parents, for the great opportunity and freedom they gave me, and the patience with
which they are still waiting me back in Italy. Mom, Dad, do not worry, I will finish
studying and I'll come back home... sooner or later ;o}
Massimo Morin
MS WindowsTM, MS WordTM and all the other buggy softwareTM are a trademarks or
registered trademarks of MicrosoftTM Corporation.
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Biography
Massimo Morin was born in Italy March 8 1971. He lived most of his time in the large
farmhouse of his dad Antonio and mom Marta Morin in Codevigo, Padova, Italy. Since
he was very young he has been interested in computer science: he obtained an
associate degree in computer science at the "Zuccante" Technical State Institute in July
1990 at the age of 19. After working for one year as a software developer and customer
support person at his computer science teacher company, IESSE s.r.l., he joined the
Italian army. He completed his military service as lieutenant in July 1992.
In September 1992 he started the Master of Science in Software Engineering at
the university "Ca' Foscari" in Venice. He completed all the required courses in May
1996. In November of the same year he graduated as one of the top three students of
his and previous class. His final grade was of 110/110 cum laude and the thesis was
about the quality of service offered by the ground side of airports, with analysis of Linate
and Malpensa airport in Milan, Italy. The completion of the thesis did not stop him from
continuing to do consulting and software development. In particular he devoted most of
his time to analyzing and proposing software solutions the Crew Scheduling Problem for
regional bus companies. He was continuously supporting software tools for the
internationalization of civil engineering applications for Concrete s.r.l. in Padova, IT.
Furthermore, he was involved with his former advisor in the development of SLAM
(Simple Land-side Aggregate Model): a prototype of his master thesis ideas for the Milan
Airport Authority.
In August 1997, he was hired by Scheduling Systems Inc. located in Waltham
MA. After spending three years, all his energy and time in developing decision support
systems for maintenance planning for various major US carriers, he decided to improve
his transportation skills by starting a Master in Science of Transportation at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA.
He took the first courses in Air Transportation Economy, Airline Management and
Design and Operate an Airspace Systems part-time, while still working at Scheduling
Systems. In September 2000, he started full-time at MIT for the completion of his Master
of Science of Transportation, with airline business and operations specialization.
Currently he is living in Belmont, MA, and he can be reached via email at
mmorin(amit.edu
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