Table Of ContentLiving with the Unexpected
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Anja K. Possekel
Living
with the Unexpected
Linking Disaster Recovery
to Sustainable Development in Montserrat
With 66 Figures
and 29 Tables
Springer
Dr. Anja K. Possekel
University of Hamburg
Institute for Geography
BundesstraBe 55
D-20146 Hamburg
Germany
e-mail:
To Gotz, Reiner, Ulla and Montserrat!
Preface
In 1980 my parents took me to St Lucia for the spring holidays. These vaca-
tions had - in the sense of the butterfly effect - considerable influence on my
further curriculum. In the course of time I carried out many other journeys to
the Caribbean. My colleagues even speak of an advancing "Caribbeanisation".
This publication is the product of a lot of people who have supported and
accompanied me during all this time.
Most of my visits in the Caribbean were made possible by the DFG (Deutsche
Forschungsgemeinschaft). It was of great advantage to my insight into Carib-
bean matters that I was able to participate in the DFG-financed research pro-
ject "Complex resource mangement on small Caribbean islands" for five
years. The final phase of my dissertation about Montserrat was also financially
supported, this time by the local funds of the University of Hamburg.
Within the scope of the DFG project, I stayed on Montserrat for some
months. The island fascinated me from my first encounter. This is especially
true for the people I met there. They not only inspired me again and again
with their ideas, knowledge and abilities. They also considerably contributed
to this publication. Thanks also goes to the participants of the scenario work-
shop and the staff of the Physical Planning Unit, who invested much time
and energy into Montserrat's future. The participants of the scenario project in
Hamburg also put enormous efforts into the work. My colleague Wolf-Dietrich
Sahr did not even shy away from the long journeys between Tlibingen and
Hamburg in order to participate - and he did not miss one single session.
The students involved in the DFG-project have over the past few years all
helped me in their own special way, especially Ines Adams, Jan Bruns, Alex
Nitzsche and Birte Wichmann. The same can without doubt be said about many
people at the Department of Economic Geography, University of Hamburg.
Looking at the maps and figures, you will easily detect that a creative per-
son with a fascinating sensibility for typography and aesthetics was at play.
Claus Carstens was always available to give me the right advice at the right
time. Many of the photographs were taken by Douglas Darby and David Lea
from Montserrat. The others were digitalised and processed by Bernd Hart-
mann. Jens Rassmuss is responsible for the beautiful depictions of the sce-
narios constructed in Hamburg. Klaus Wohlberg did an excellent job while
checking the final printout.
Prof. Dr. Jlirgen Ogenbrligge and especially Prof. Dr. Robert Geipel as-
sisted me at a critical bifurcation point and showed me a challenging and
interesting direction which I might not have taken without their help.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank all these people for their
support.
VIII Preface
Immense thanks to Ines Adams for her never-ending energy while trans-
lating almost every single word of the original German text. With her excel-
lent linguistic skill, pool of ideas and critical review of the text she also con-
tributed considerably to this publication.
My special gratitude to Prof. Gerhard Sandner who has for a decade con-
tinuously inspired me and been a vivid example for the realisation of visions.
Last but not least: this work would never have found its way to the pub-
lisher without the continuous support and creativity of Beate, Gotz, Reiner
and Ulla. They have never given up encouraging me and have shown inex-
haustible patience with my highwire act between chaos and self-organisation.
I would like to express my sincere and deep thanks to the four of you.
Hamburg, February 1999 Anja K. Possekel
Contents
1 Introduction .................................................................................... 1
2 Theoretical Reflections . ..... ... ....... ................... ....... ... ........... ........... 9
2.1 Complexity and Uncertainty . ....... .... ......... ....... ....... ....... ... ......... 10
2.1.1 What Exactly is Complexity? ....... ....... .... .............. ... ......... 13
2.1.2 What is Uncertainty? ......... ........ ....... ................. ..... ......... 22
2.2 Resources and Uncertainty ......................................................... 26
2.3 Hazard Research and Complexity .... ....... ............. ........... .... ........ 34
2.4 Challenges to Geography..... .... ........... .......... ............. ..... ..... ...... 49
3 Strategic Planning as Methodical Consequence .......................... 55
3.1 What is Strategic Planning? ........................................................ 57
3.2 What are Scenarios? ................................................................... 59
3.3 Procedures of Scenario Planning ................................................ 63
3.4 Potentials and Problems of Scenario Planning ............................ 69
3.5 Methodical Consequences for this Paper .................................... 72
4 Montserrat - A Complex System ................................................... 75
4.1 Montserrat Before the Volcanic Crisis - Dealing with Uncertainty? 78
4.1.1 The Macro Level- Basic Structures ......... .... ........ ... ......... 81
4.1.2 The Meso Level- Perceptions of the Gatekeepers, Plans
and Strategies ...... ..... ......... .......... ....... .... ........ .... ..... ......... 103
4.1.3 The Micro Level- Perceptions of the Montserratians ...... 110
4.1.4 Interactions Between the Levels ........................................ 120
4.2 Montserrat During the Volcanic Crisis - Coping with Uncertainty 124
4.2.1 Chronology of the Volcanic Crisis .................................... 127
4.2.2 The Meso Level- Perceptions of Gatekeepers, Plans
and Strategies ..... ....... ......... .......... ................. ....... ..... .... ... 151
4.2.3 The Micro Level- Perceptions of the Montserratians ...... 160
4.2.4 Interactions Between the Levels . .......... ............... ... ....... .... 172
X Contents
5 Structuring the Future and Hazard Management - Scenarios as a
Participative Planning Method for Reconstruction ...................... 177
5.1 Reconstruction Determined by Long-term Objectives .. ....... ....... 177
5.2 The Relevance of Participation ... .... ............ .... ... ....... .......... .... .... 181
5.3 Scenarios in Hazard Management .............................................. 187
6 Living on the Edge of a Volcano - Scenarios for Montserrat .. ... 191
6.1 A First Approach - Pre-Testing the Scenario Method ... ....... ...... 191
6.1.1 Phase I - Tasks and Influences ........................... ......... ..... 194
6.1.2 Phase II - Trend Projections and Clustering Alternatives . 205
6.1.3 Phase III - Scenario Interpretation ................................... 212
6.1.4 Concluding Evaluation .................................................... 218
6.2 Second Approximation - The Scenario Method in a
Hazard Situation ................................ ............. ......... ..... ....... ...... 219
6.2.1 Phase I - Utopias and Visions .......................................... 223
6.2.2 Phase II - Draft Scenarios ... ..... ..... ........ ......... ... ..... .......... 227
6.2.3 Phase III - Options and Strategies .. .... ............. ..... ... ........ 241
6.2.4 Final Evaluation ............................................................... 246
7 Living with the Unexpected - Perspectives for a Constructive
Dealing with Complexity and Uncertainty ................................... 251
References ........................................................................................... 263
Appendix ... ......................... ................................................ ...... ....... ...... 281
There is no reason why we should wait
passively for the next natural disaster to
strike. We should mobilize scientific
knowledge and technological know-how.
We should give a positive response to the
strong political interest and commitment
of the international community
(Boutros-Ghali) .
1 Introduction
Deadly typhoon, Ash Wednesday in paradise, China's merciless floods, mass
escape from Bonnie, Bangladesh is drowning ... When reading the daily head-
lines, one gets the impression that natural disasters have in the whole world
risen dramatically. But nobody really knows whether this is the case or
whether the international press and better information channels have just
sharpened our awareness; maybe it is a bit of both. However, some problems
point at our growing vulnerability to natural disasters. Our environment is
degenerating, the global climate is changing, desertification threatens us, the
number of species is diminishing, and urbanisation and population growth
are common phenomena of our century, above all in developing countries.
That much is certain: the damage caused by natural disasters has on a world-
wide scale, despite higher spending for preventative measures, increased con-
siderably. Natural disasters have between 1960 and 1970 caused material
damage of around US$ 50 milliards. This amount has in the decade following
risen to about US$ 70 milliards, and the costs between 1980 and 1990 were
reported to have reached US$ 120 milliards. This disturbing trend has accu-
mulated in material damage of US$ 360 milliards in the first half of the cur-
rent decade (Eikenberg 1998). Damage in industrialised nations is unpropor-
tionally higher since their material assets are usually far higher. It has to be
kept in mind, however, that the extent of relative economic damage and fa-
talities is by far the largest in the developing countries, and the majority of
natural disasters occur in these countries.
The General Meeting of the United Nations has in the light of these devel-
opments declared the 1990s as International Decade for Natural Disaster Re-
duction (IDNDR). The main objective of the programme is the reduction of
fatalities, damage to property and the socio-economic consequences caused by
extreme natural events. To this end the following tasks have been defined by
the General Meeting.
