Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (America's Climate Choices)

277 Pages·2010·2.81 MB·English

by  National Research Council, America's Climate Choices: Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change

http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html
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Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change

America's Climate Choices: Panel on Limiting the

Magnitude of Future Climate Change; National
Research Council

ISBN: 0-309-14598-8, 276 pages, 7 x 10, (2010)

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Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html
Limiting the Magnitude
of Future Climate Change
America’s Climate Choices
Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
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Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe-
tences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under
contract number DG133R08CQ0062, TO# 4. Any opinions, fndings, conclusions, or recommen-
dations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily refect the
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Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonproft, self-perpetuating society of distin-
guished scholars engaged in scientifc and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientifc and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
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administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
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is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html
AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES:
PANEL ON LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ROBERT W. FRI (Chair), Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
MARILYN A. BROWN (Vice Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
DOUG ARENT, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado
ANN CARLSON, University of California, Los Angeles
MAJORA CARTER, Majora Carter Group, LLC, Bronx, New York
LEON CLARKE, Joint Global Change Research Institute (Pacifc Northwest National
Laboratory/University of Maryland), College Park, Maryland
FRANCISCO DE LA CHESNAYE, Electric Power Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
GEORGE C. EADS, Charles River Associates, Washington, D.C.
GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
ANDREW HOFFMAN, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
ROBERT O. KEOHANE, Princeton University, New Jersey
LOREN LUTZENHISER, Portland State University, Oregon
BRUCE MCCARL, Texas A&M University, College Station
MACK MCFARLAND, DuPont, Wilmington, Delaware
MARY D. NICHOLS, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento
EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
THOMAS H. TIETENBERG, Colby College (retired), Waterville, Maine
JAMES A. TRAINHAM, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
NRC Staff
LAURIE GELLER, Study Director
ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Offcer
TOM MENZIES, Senior Program Offcer
KATIE WELLER, Research Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html
Foreword: About America’s
Climate Choices
onvened by the National Research Council in response to a request from
Congress (P.L. 110-161), America’s Climate Choices is a suite of fve coordinated
Cactivities designed to study the serious and sweeping issues associated with
global climate change, including the science and technology challenges involved, and
to provide advice on the most effective steps and most promising strategies that can
be taken to respond.
The Committee on America’s Climate Choices is responsible for providing overall direc-
tion, coordination, and integration of the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities
and ensuring that these activities provide well-supported, action-oriented, and useful
advice to the nation. The committee convened a Summit on America’s Climate Choices
on March 30–31, 2009, to help frame the study and provide an opportunity for high-
level input on key issues. The committee is also charged with writing a fnal report that
builds on four panel reports and other sources to answer the following four overarch-
ing questions:
• What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate
change?
• What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be
pursued to respond to climate change?
• What are the major scientifc and technological advances needed to better
understand and respond to climate change?
• What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethi-
cal, intergenerational, etc.) to responding effectively to climate change, and
what can be done to overcome these impediments?
The Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change was charged to de-
scribe, analyze, and assess strategies for reducing the net future human infuence on
climate. This report focuses on actions to reduce domestic greenhouse gas emissions
and other human drivers of climate change, such as changes in land use, but also con-
siders the international dimensions of climate stabilization.
The Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change was charged to describe,
analyze, and assess actions and strategies to reduce vulnerability, increase adaptive
ii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html
F O R E W O R D
capacity, improve resiliency, and promote successful adaptation to climate change in
different regions, sectors, systems, and populations. The panel’s report draws on a wide
range of sources and case studies to identify lessons learned from past experiences,
promising current approaches, and potential new directions.
The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was charged to provide a
concise overview of past, present, and future climate change, including its causes and
its impacts, and to recommend steps to advance our current understanding, including
new observations, research programs, next-generation models, and the physical and
human assets needed to support these and other activities. The panel’s report focuses
on the scientifc advances needed both to improve our understanding of the integrated
human-climate system and to devise more effective responses to climate change.
The Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change
was charged to describe and assess different activities, products, strategies, and tools
for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and ex-
ecute effective, integrated responses. The panel’s report describes the different types
of climate change-related decisions and actions being taken at various levels and in
different sectors and regions; it develops a framework, tools, and practical advice for
ensuring that the best available technical knowledge about climate change is used to
inform these decisions and actions.
America’s Climate Choices builds on an extensive foundation of previous and ongoing
work, including National Research Council reports, assessments from other national
and international organizations, the current scientifc literature, climate action plans
by various entities, and other sources. More than a dozen boards and standing com-
mittees of the National Research Council were involved in developing the study, and
many additional groups and individuals provided additional input during the study
process. Outside viewpoints were also obtained via public events and workshops
(including the Summit), invited presentations at committee and panel meetings, and
comments received through the study website, http://americasclimatechoices.org.
Collectively, the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities involves more than 90
volunteers from a range of communities including academia, various levels of govern-
ment, business and industry, other nongovernmental organizations, and the interna-
tional community. Responsibility for the fnal content of each report rests solely with the
authoring panel and the National Research Council. However, the development of each
report included input from and interactions with members of all fve study groups; the
membership of each group is listed in Appendix A.
iii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12785.html

Preface
ackling climate change promises to be one of the most signifcant social and
technological challenges of the 21st century. Since the industrial revolution, the
Tatmosphere has been one of the world’s principal waste repositories because it
has offered an easy and inexpensive means of managing unwanted by-products. It is
currently absorbing a net gain of two parts per million of CO2 per year as the result of
global emissions, and the world’s leading scientists believe that this change in atmo-
spheric composition is changing the global climate.
This report focuses on actions available to the United States to reduce greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. The goal of actually limiting1 global climate change requires interna-
tional cooperation, since most of this century’s emissions will come from developing
countries, with U.S. emissions representing a shrinking portion of the total. Thus, our
national strategy must promote domestic actions while at the same time infuencing
the rest of the world to control their emissions.
The United States has successfully reduced emissions of several key atmospheric
pollutants—including SO2, NOX, and particulates—through the Clean Air Act. The cre-
ation of a market for SO2 allowances, in conjunction with performance standards and a
cap on emissions, provided strong incentives for entrepreneurs to develop lower-cost
SO2 abatement technologies and approaches, and is one of the past century’s great-
est environmental policy successes. Emissions of most GHGs, however, remain largely
unregulated and continue to be discharged without penalty, through smokestacks,
tailpipes, and chimneys, and by the destruction of forests. With no price on carbon, or
regulatory pressure, there exist few incentives to mitigate emissions. Thus, we continue
to “lock in” incumbent technologies and systems that are typically carbon-intensive.
Changing these practices will require scientifc and engineering genius to create
new energy systems that avoid emitting all but a small fraction of today’s GHGs while
simultaneously powering global economic growth. Success will also necessitate insti-
tutional, economic, social, and policy innovations to foster the widespread and rapid
deployment of transformational technologies.
1 The term “limiting” climate change rather than “mitigation” of climate change was deliberately chosen,
because in some circles, mitigation often refers to mitigating the impacts of climate change, that is, adapta-
tion (the focus of another America’s Climate Choices panel report). Our focus is on limiting the main drivers
of climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions), with the expectation that this will contribute to limiting
climate change itself.
ix
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.