Table Of ContentLebanon and the Arab Uprisings
The Arabuprisings have put Lebanonunder increased strain. While the revo-
lutions in Tunisia and Egypt caused limited reverberations, the war in Syria
echoed in the fine-tuned political and confessional balance of Lebanon.
Over one million refugees, equal to one-quarter of Lebanon’s population,
have movedinfromSyria.Thecountry’seconomyanditsalreadyweakpublic
infrastructurehavebeenimpactedheavily.Hizbullah’sengagementinSyriahas
posed questions about Lebanon’s disassociation policy. Terrorist attacks by
ISIL and the growing risk of radicalization across the confessional spectrum
have left the country in a state of unease. However, Lebanon’s political elites
havevowed toshield thecountry from regional turbulences. Lebanon recently
saw a series of demonstrations because of the inability of the government to
manage the garbage crisis, but it has been far from witnessing a large-scale
citizenuprisingsimilar tothe2005Cedar Revolution or therevolts nextdoor.
ThisbookprovidesacomprehensiveoverviewofthecurrentsituationinLeba-
non,andadetailedassessmentofthedifficultieswhichthecountryiscurrently
facing.
Maximilian Felsch is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political
Science at Haigazian University, Beirut, Lebanon.
Martin Wählisch is an Affiliated Scholar of the Issam Fares Institute for
Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut,
Lebanon. He served as a Political Affairs Officer for the United Nations in
the Office of the Special Coordinator for Lebanon
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Lebanon and the Arab Uprisings
In the eye of the hurricane
Edited by
Maximilian Felsch and Martin Wählisch
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Firstpublished2016
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LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData
Names:Wählisch,Martin,1982–editor.|Felsch,Maximilian,editor.
Title:LebanonandtheArabuprisings:intheeyeofthehurricane/
MartinWählischandMaximilianFelsch.
Description:NewYork:Routledge,2016.|Series:DurhamModernMiddle
EastandIslamicWorldSeries;v.40
Identifiers:LCCN2015047612|ISBN9781138885844(hardback)|
ISBN9781315715216(e-book)
Subjects:LCSH:Lebanon–Politicsandgovernment–21stcentury.|
ArabSpring,2010–
Classification:LCCDS87.54.L3762016|DDC956.9204/53–dc23
LCrecordavailableathttp://lccn.loc.gov/2015047612
ISBN:978-1-138-88584-4(hbk)
ISBN:978-1-315-71521-6(ebk)
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byTaylor&FrancisBooks
Contents
List of illustrations vii
List of contributors viii
List of abbreviations xv
Introduction
Lebanon and the Arab uprisings: in the eye of the hurricane 1
MARTINWÄHLISCHANDMAXIMILIANFELSCH
PARTI
Stability, unity and confessional balance 19
1 Lebanon’s consociational politics in the post-2011 Middle East:
the paradox of resilience 21
TAMIRACEFAKHOURY
2 The role of Hizbullah in the Syrian conflict 32
MAGNUSRANSTORP
3 Jihadism in Lebanon after the Syrian uprising 50
AARONY.ZELIN
4 The rise of Christian nationalism in Lebanon 70
MAXIMILIANFELSCH
PARTII
Humanitarian, economic and social challenges 87
5 Syrian refugees in Lebanon: coping with unpreceded challenges 89
SAMVANVLIET
6 The blind spot: Palestinian refugees from Syria in Lebanon 104
DANIELMEIER
vi Contents
7 The economic cost of the Arab uprising for Lebanon 119
MARCUSMARKTANNER,MAUREENE.WILSONANDSANDRAEL-SAGHIR
8 The fight for oil and gas: regional rivalry, the Arab uprisings
and Lebanon’s energy sector 135
ISABELLARUBLE
PARTIII
Foreign policy, regional ties and international relations 153
9 Lebanese foreign policy and the Arab uprisings 155
HENRIETTAWILKINS
10 Syrian–Lebanese relations: the impossible dissociation between
Lebanon and Syria 167
CARSTENWIELAND
11 US–Lebanese relations: long-term schizophrenia 181
JENNIFERSKULTE-OUAISS
12 EU–Lebanese relations: shifting EU policies in the aftermath of
the Arab uprisings? 192
JULIANPÄNKE
Index 213
List of illustrations
Figures
7.1 Lebanon’s real GDP and hypothetical GDP (constant $2005)
under 1% and 2% growth scenario, 1970–2012 120
7.2 Lebanon’s Total Factor Productivity 1980–2011 127
7.3 Lebanon’s total factor productivity, capital, labor force, and
GDP (1980–2011) 129
7.4 Scenario forecasts for 2012–2020 132
Tables
7.1 Direct cost of the Syrian refugee crisis on the Lebanese economy 123
7.2 Forecast parameters 131
8.1 Governance indicators for Norway and Lebanon in 2012 140
8.2 Natural gas and oil reserves in the Levant Basin 143
List of contributors
Sandra El-Saghir obtained her Ph.D. in Economics in 2010 from the Uni-
versité Panthéon-Assas (Paris 2) with distinction. She was awarded the
universityprize for herthesis “PovertyAssessment and ProspectsofDevel-
opmentinthecontextofGlobalization–AnApplicationtoLebanon.”After
graduating from the American Universityof Beirut (AUB) with an MA in
Economics in 2001, she worked for two years as a Senior Economist at
USAID’s project on Lebanon’s accession to the World Trade Organization
(WTO). Between 2001 and 2013shewas a Lecturerof EconomicsatAUB.
SinceJuly2013,shehasbeenworkingattheUnitedNationsEconomicand
Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA) as an Economic
Consultant where she is in charge of analyzing the economic impact of the
Syrian crisis on Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. Her work focuses on the
assessment of the macroeconomic, social, and developmental implications,
especiallyas they relate to the large inflowof Syrian refugees, and employs
CGE modeling and simulations studies. She has also been responsible for
preparing concept notes and project documents on strengthening the
nationaldevelopmentplanningcapacityofJordan.
Tamirace Fakhoury is Assistant Professor in Political Sciences and Inter-
national Affairs at Lebanese American University (LAU). She is Visiting
Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of California,
Berkeley. Her core research areas include comparative democratization,
migration governance, and the links between transnational immigrant
communities and political development. Fakhoury holds a Ph.D. in poli-
tical sciences from Albert Ludwigs University of Freiburg. Before her
appointment at the Lebanese American University, she was research fellow
in charge of the socio-political module in CARIM (Consortium for the
Applied Research on International Migration) at the Migration Policy
Center of the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence. In
2010/2011, she held the Jean Monnet Fellowship at EUI for research on
the interface between Arab world diasporas and political change. In spring
2011 she was a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Middle Eastern
List of contributors ix
Studies at UC Berkeley; the following summer she returned as visiting
faculty in International and Area Studies at UC Berkeley.
Maximilian Felsch is Assistant Professor and Coordinator of the Political
Science Department at Haigazian University in Beirut. He graduated in
Political Science at the Martin-Luther University Halle-Wittenberg,
Germany,followedbyaPh.D.programattheGraduateSchoolofPoliticsin
Münster, Germany. Awarded two doctoral fellowships by the German
Orient-Institut Beirut (OIB) and the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation (FES), he
receivedhisPh.D.in2011.Felschisanauthorofvariousbookchaptersand
peer-reviewed journal articles on the Middle East and is a member of the
International Studies Association (ISA) and the German Middle East
Studies Association for Contemporary Research and Documentation
(DAVO). His research is focused on International relations and the Middle
East, including the foreign policy of Arab states, Arab regionalism, the
MiddleEastconflict,andtransnationalIslamistorganisations.
Marcus Marktanner is Associate Professor of Economics and International
Conflict Management at Kennesaw State University. He receivedhis Ph.D.
from the Technical Universityof Ilmenau, Germany. In his doctoral thesis
heexaminedthepolitical economyoftheeconomictransformationprocess
of former socialist economies. Before joining the faculty of Kennesaw
State University in June 2011, he held teaching and research positions in
Lebanon, the US, and Germany. His research focuses on comparative eco-
nomics, economic development, and conflict economics. He has consulted
the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
(ESCWA)andtheWorldFoodProgram(WFP)onissuesrelatedtoconflict
and food security. He also regularly contributes to the workof the Konrad
Adenauer Foundation as an author and speaker on the topic of the Social
MarketEconomy.
Daniel Meier is Senior Associate Member at St Antony’s College in Oxford,
after having served as Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Lebanese Studies,
University of Oxford. He is a post-doctoral grant holder from the Swiss
National Fund and has been an associated researcher with the French
Institute for Near East Studies in Beirut for two years. He was formerly a
lecturer at the Graduate Institute of International and Development
Studies and also at the Arabic Department of the Faculty of Humanities
at the University of Geneva. He has worked extensively on Palestinian
issues in Lebanon and published numerous articles in French and English.
His book Mariages et Identité Nationale au Liban (Karthala, 2008) tackles
Lebanese-Palestinian relationships from a socio-political perspective. As
chief editor of the interdisciplinary Journal AContrario, he co-editedwith
Prof. R. Bocco a special issue on “La Palestine et les conflits du Moyen-
Orient” (2008). He also published the book Le Liban (Le Cavalier bleu,
2011) and edited a special topic issue in Mediterranean Politics (2013) on
