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www.internationaltransportforum.org
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(77 2009 01 1 P1)
ISBN 978-92-821-0241-1 2010
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IMPROVING
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RELIABILITY
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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
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ISBN 978-92-82-10241-1 (print)
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Also available in French: Améliorer la fiabilité des réseaux de transport de surface
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INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT FORUM
The International Transport Forum is an inter-governmental body within the OECD family. The Forum
is a global platform for transport policy makers and stakeholders. Its objective is to serve political leaders
and a larger public in developing a better understanding of the role of transport in economic growth and the
role of transport policy in addressing the social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development.
The Forum organises a Conference for Ministers and leading figures from civil society each May in Leipzig,
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The International Transport Forum was created under a Declaration issued by the Council of
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2006 under the legal authority of the Protocol of the ECMT, signed in Brussels on 17 October 1953, and
legal instruments of the OECD. The Forum's Secretariat is located in Paris.
The members of the Forum are: Albania, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,
FYROM, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia,
Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, New
Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The OECD and the International Transport Forum established a Joint Transport Research Centre in
2004. The Centre conducts co-operative research programmes addressing all modes of transport to
support policy making in Member countries and contribute to the Ministerial sessions of the
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© Photo credits (cover): Courtesy of the Land Transport Authority of Singapore
FOREWORD – 5
FOREWORD
This report Improving Reliability on Surface Transport Networks examines the extent to which
appropriate levels of transport reliability are delivered, examining experience in each of the major ITF
regions. With growing prosperity, consumers are increasingly mobile and demand higher quality
transport services, for which reliable transport networks are central. Reliable trade connections within
economies and between global partners are vital for the growing world economy. It is important to
ensure there are efficient levels of reliability – neither too little nor too much.
The report focuses on national and international movements of passengers and goods on roads and
railways. Although reliability has long been identified as central to the quality of transport services,
research on valuing reliability and how best to reflect it in assessments of transport projects and policies
began only recently. The results of this recent research are reviewed and used as a basis to explore a
range of reliability performance measures useful to policy makers in identifying strategies to ensure
appropriate levels of reliability. Recommendations are made for possible improvements in transport
planning and operations that explicitly incorporate values of reliability. Case studies of commercial
operations and a range of policy initiatives across OECD and ITF countries provide examples of
analytical tools that can be used to deliver more reliable networks in a cost-effective manner.
The report was developed by a group of international experts under the Joint Transport Research
Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International
Transport Forum. It is based on research by a working group of experts from 13 countries, chaired by
Mr. Hans Jeekel, Corporate Strategist, Centre for Infrastructure of the Dutch Ministry of Transport,
Public Works and Water Management.
In introducing the concept of reliability, there are three factors to consider:
1. The transport task in our economy and our lifestyles. Transport networks form the vital
conduits of our economies and the arteries that facilitate our patterns of living. Transport
enables the trade in our global economy to function and is a vital aspect of the labour market
mobility that delivers higher economic productivity and lower inflation. The passenger task
enables travellers to commute, to socialise and entertain. Thus, “consuming” transport fulfils a
means to an end (in most cases) rather than being an activity in its own right.
2. Transport unreliability impacts on personal and commercial activities. Not only do
disruptions along transport arteries worsen the “transport experience” of network users but,
more importantly, they adversely affect the commercial and personal activities that rely on
reliable timetabling. Unreliable transport truncates usable time at the destination, such as
missing a critical meeting or seeing half the football game. Similarly, because goods
components are increasingly produced by specialist companies, the production of the final
product relies on interlocking these separate components; thus, delays in the delivery of
individual components can then disrupt the entire production line. Unreliability also
encompasses early arrival, which can also adversely impact on personal and commercial
activities.
IMPROVING RELIABILITY ON SURFACE TRANSPORT NETWORKS © OECD/ITF 2010
6– FOREWORD
3. Trends in transport and reliance on reliability. Declining transport costs – through vehicle
and infrastructure improvements – have enlarged the operational sphere of influence for
travellers and businesses alike. Personal travel – commuting and leisure activities – have
lengthened. Businesses have consolidated into larger, but fewer, physical locations.
Complementary activities have been outsourcing of production and just-in-time stockholding.
However, while fast, reliable transport shapes industry structure, it also increases the
vulnerability of the supply chain to perturbations, especially with lengthening supply lines. The
costs of disruptions are likely to be higher than in the past, when, for instance, stocks on hand
provided insurance against late delivery.
These factors provide the basic framework and focus for this report. Transport is vital to our
personal and commercial well-being. Demands for reliable transport are rising; conversely, traffic
growth increases the challenge to maintain (let alone enhance) the supply of reliability. The central
question of this report is whether appropriate levels of reliability are sought and supplied. For this it is
necessary to examine why such levels may not arise and then identify if there are appropriate government
policy tools that might then be applied.
The outline of the report is as follows. The first section sets the scene for assessing reliability –
notably discussing how it is defined and the primary sources of unreliability. Following this is a review
of different indicators of network reliability and how monitoring is already a policy tool. Section three
discusses how reliability can be incorporated into cost-benefit analysis, the main tool for delivering
optimal reliability levels. Subsequent sections consider a range of government policy tools that can be
considered in responding to the assessment of transport reliability. Conclusions are then drawn. The
report provides a broad range of case studies of private and public treatments in the supply of reliable
transport services.
IMPROVING RELIABILITY ON SURFACE TRANSPORT NETWORKS © OECD/ITF 2010
ABSTRACT – 7
ABSTRACT
ITRD1 NUMBER E145017
Supply chains are, more than ever underpinned by global and, often, just-in-time production and
distribution systems. This complexity is echoed in passenger movements, both for business and social
purposes. These changing patterns have increased the importance of keeping to schedules. This increases
the focus on transport reliability.
This report examines the extent to which appropriate levels of transport reliability are delivered in
each of the major ITF regions. It provides policy makers with a framework for understanding reliability
issues and for designing reliability management policies. The report also reviews policies in ITF/OECD
countries showing that few countries explicitly incorporate reliability into transport policy making. There
are very few cases where reliability is formally incorporated into the cost-benefit assessment.
Because there generally is no direct market for reliability, cost-benefit assessment needs to be used
to determine appropriate levels of reliability and to select cost-effective policies to manage reliability.
The report has made significant progress in identifying methodology for incorporating improvements in
reliability into project and policy evaluation, while exploring the pitfalls that need to be avoided.
A review of existing reliability indicators suggests that governments have started monitoring and
targeting reliability. There is a clear dichotomy in performance indicators: indicators of network quality
and indicators of what the user experiences. Therefore, reliability targets need to be applied with caution,
distinguishing between the network operator and the user perspective.
A wide range of policy instruments is available to manage reliability. The report presents four
principal policy options available to manage reliability: physical expansion of capacity, better
management of capacity, pricing mechanisms to deliver a market for reliability and information systems
intended to mitigate the adverse consequences of unreliability.
Finally, the report highlights the increased importance of reliability noting that reliability needs
policy prominence such as is traditionally given to congestion.
Subjects: Traffic and transport planning (72); Economics and administration (10).
Keywords: Operational research, economics of transport, travel time reliability, passenger transport,
freight transport, road transport, rail bound transport, policy, planning, timetable, journey time,
evaluation (assessment), capacity (road, footway), capacity (traffic network), railway network,
international.
1. The International Transport Research Documentation (ITRD) database of published information on transport
and transport research is administered by TRL on behalf of the Joint ITF/OECD Transport Research Centre.
ITRD contains over 350 000 bibliographical references, and about 10 000 are added each year. Input to the
ITRD database is provided by more than 30 renowned institute and organisations from around the world. For
more details about ITRD, please contact [email protected] or see the ITRD website at www.itrd.org.
IMPROVING RELIABILITY ON SURFACE TRANSPORT NETWORKS © OECD/ITF 2010
