How International Relations Affect Civil Conflict: Cheap Signals, Costly Consequences (Innovations in the Study of World Politics)

255 Pages·2009·1.4 MB·English

by  Clayton L. Thyne

H O W I N T E R N A T I O N A L
R E L A T I O N S A F F E C T
C I V I L C O N F L I C T
Innovations in the Study of World Politics
Series Editor
Zeev Maoz, University of California, Davis
Advisory Board
Michael Barnett, University of Wisconsin, Madison
Deborah Larson, UCLA
Brett Ashley Leeds, Rice University
Jack Levy, Rutgers University
This series provides a forum for the publication of original theoretical, em-
pirical, and conceptual studies that seek to chart new frontiers in the field of
international relations. The key emphasis is on innovation and change. Books
in the series will offer insights on and approaches to a broad range of issues
facing the modern world, in an effort to revolutionize how contemporary
world politics are studied, taught, and practiced.
Forgetting Ourselves: Secession and the (Im)possibility of Territorial
Identity, by Linda S. Bishai
Multiple Paths to Knowledge in International Relations: Methodology in the
Study of Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution, edited by Zeev Maoz,
Alex Mintz, T. Clifton Morgan, Glenn Palmer, and Richard J. Stoll
New Directions for International Relations: Confronting the Method-of-Analysis
Problem, edited by Alex Mintz and Bruce Russett
Cycles of Violence: The Evolution of the Israeli Decision Regime Governing the
Use of Limited Military Force, by Ranan D. Kuperman
Economic Interdependence and Conflict in World Politics, by Mark J. C.
Crescenzi
Redrawing the Map to Promote Peace: Territorial Dispute Management Via Ter-
ritorial Changes, by Jaroslav Tir
Existential Threats and Civil-Security Relations, edited by Oren Barak and
Gabriel Sheffer
How International Relations Affect Civil Conflict, by Clayton L. Thyne
H O W I N T E R N A T I O N A L
R E L A T I O N S A F F E C T
C I V I L C O N F L I C T
Cheap Signals, Costly Consequences
Clayton L. Thyne
LEXINGTON BOOKS
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Thyne, Clayton L.
How international relations affect civil conflict : cheap signals, costly consequences /
Clayton L. Thyne.
p. cm. — (Innovations in the study of world politics)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-7391-3546-4 (cloth : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-7391-3548-8 (electronic)
1. Civil war. 2. International relations. I. Title.
JZ6385.T49 2009
303.6'4—dc22 2009020015
(cid:2) ™
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American
National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library
Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.
Printed in the United States of America
To Megan, Emma, Paige, and Sydney

Contents
Tables and Figures ix
Acknowledgments xiii
1 Introduction 1
2 The Argument: How Interstate Signals Affect Civil Conflicts 17
3 Interstate Signals and Civil War Onset 59
4 A Puzzling Rebellion: Interstate Signals and Civil War Onset
in Nicaragua 97
5 Interstate Signals and Civil War Duration 113
6 Interstate Signals and Civil War Outcome 135
7 The Consequences of Contradiction: Civil War Duration and
Outcome in Iraq 149
8 Lessons Learned and Implications for the Future of
U.S. Foreign Policy 169
9 Summary and Directions for Future Research 197
Bibliography 203
Index 233
About the Author 239
— vii —

Tables and Figures
Tables
1.1 The Plan of the Book 6
2.1 Types of Interstate Signals by Credibility and Orientation 25
3.1 Summary of Theoretical Expectations, Indicators, and Sources 64
3.2 Defining the Cheap/Costly Continuum 68
3.3 Costly Signals and the Likelihood of Civil War Onset 73
3.4 Cheap Signals and the Likelihood of Civil War Onset 74
3.5 Cheap Signals and the Likelihood of Civil War Onset:
Volatility Tests 76
3.6 Cheap Signals and the Likelihood of Civil War Onset:
Signaler’s Characteristics 81
5.1 Coding of Primary Independent Variables 117
5.2 Expectations for Civil War Duration and Outcome: Distribution
of Cases 122
5.3 Duration of Civil Wars and External Interventions 125
6.1 Type and Frequency of Civil War Outcomes 140
6.2 External Interventions and the Outcomes of Civil Wars 143
7.1 The Phases of U.S. Policies in Iraq, 1991 to 2003 154
8.1 Forecasted Risk of Civil Conflict, 2005 176
— ix —