Forecasting cargo throughput in Portuguese ports Engenharia e Arquitectura Naval

108 Pages·2016·4.55 MB·English

by  Andrea Mainardi

Forecasting cargo throughput in Portuguese ports

Andrea Mainardi

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em

Engenharia e Arquitectura Naval

Orientador: Prof. Tiago Santos

Júri

Presidente: Prof. Carlos Guedes Soares
Orientador: Prof. Tiago Santos
Vogal: Prof.a Regina Salvador

Julho 2016
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Acknowledgments

I would like to thank my coordinator, Professor Tiago Santos for the countless hours he dedicated to
me and for the precious help when it looked like there was no chance of solving problems.
I would like to thank also my parents, for the endless support they gave me in all these years of
studying. Thank you Teresa for helping me to maintain a fully functioning mind and body.
And finally thanks to my friends who taught me in these years in Lisbon much more than any
university ever could, you know who you are!

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Abstract

Reliable port throughput forecasts are of the utmost importance for ports. Given the high investment
and long time needed to improve the port infrastructure and superstructure, a good balance is
required between port development and expected throughput. An over-dimensioned port will lead to
revenues not covering the capital and operating costs, while an under-dimensioned port will introduce
delays in the process of cargo loading and unloading, discouraging ship-owners to come back to the
port. Adequate port development thus requires reliable cargo throughput forecasts.

The aim of this thesis is to forecast the cargo throughput in Portuguese ports using a mix of Multiple
Linear Regression (MLR) and qualitative considerations. Port throughput data from the last 15 years
is obtained from the various Portuguese port authorities and from Instituto Nacional de Estatìstica
(INE) and is analysed. Economic and industrial indicator are collected from different sources, namely
INE, Banco do Portugal, OECD and PorData, aiming at identifying explanatory variables for observed
cargo throughput in ports. Cargo throughput is split into categories and compared with the economic
and industrial indicators to find similarities. Then a forecast of port throughput over the next 10 years
is presented. Considerations are made about the relation between the various ports of the country
and how they interact, as well as about the interaction between port throughput and economy.
Conclusions are drawn regarding main drivers of cargo throughput increase in Portuguese ports and
forecasts are presented for individual ports, the entire port range and different cargo types.

Keywords: Forecast, cargo throughput, ports, linear regression.

iv
Resumo

Dado o elevado investimento a longo prazo necessário para melhorar as infra-estruturas e
superestruturas portuárias, previsões do tráfego confiáveis são de extrema importância para os
portos. É necessário um bom equilíbrio entre o desenvolvimento portuário e o rendimento esperado.
Um porto sobredimensionado conduzirá a receitas que não cobrem os custos operacionais e de
capital, enquanto um porto sob-dimensionado atrasará o processo de carga e descarga,
desencorajando os armadores a voltar ao porto. Um desenvolvimento portuário adequado requer,
assim, previsões do tráfego fiáveis.
O objetivo desta tese é a previsão da movimentação de carga nos portos portugueses, usando uma
mistura de Regressão Linear Múltipla (MLR) e considerações qualitativas. Dados sobre o tráfego dos
últimos 15 anos são obtidos das várias autoridades portuárias Portuguesas e do Instituto Nacional de
Estatística (INE). Esses dados estatísticos são analisados em detalhe. Indicadores económicos e
industriais são recolhidos a partir de diferentes fontes, como o INE, o Banco do Portugal, a OCDE e
Pordata, com o objectivo de identificar as variáveis explicativas para a movimentação de carga
observada nos portos. O trafego é depois dividido em categorias e comparado com os indicadores
industriais e económicos, procurando semelhanças. A seguir, uma previsão do tráfego ao longo dos
próximos 10 anos é apresentada. Considerações são feitas sobre a relação entre portos, assim como
sobre a interação entre a movimentação de carga e a economia. Sao retiradas conclusões sobre as
forças motrizes do aumento da movimentação de carga nos portos, e previsões são apresentadas
para os portos individualmente, para grupos de portos e para os diversos tipos de carga.

Palavras-chave: Previsão, Tráfego portuário, Portos, Regressão linear.

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Table of Contents
Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................................... iii
Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................... iv
Resumo ....................................................................................................................................................... v
List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... ix
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... xii
List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ xiii
1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1
2. STATE OF THE ART ................................................................................................................. 3
2.1 Techniques .............................................................................................................................................. 3
2.2 Literature Review .................................................................................................................................... 8
2.2.1 Applications of traditional methods ...................................................................................................... 8
2.2.2 Comparison of performances and new methods .................................................................................. 9
2.2.3 In-depth considerations ....................................................................................................................... 10
2.2.4 Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 11
3. GEOGRAPHICAL AND INDUSTRIAL OVERVIEW ..................................................................... 13
3.1 Industrial Overview ............................................................................................................................... 14
3.2 Lisbon .................................................................................................................................................... 15
3.3 Leixões .................................................................................................................................................. 16
3.4 Sines ...................................................................................................................................................... 16
3.5 Setúbal .................................................................................................................................................. 17
3.6 Aveiro .................................................................................................................................................... 18
3.7 Figueira da Foz ...................................................................................................................................... 18
3.8 Viana do Castelo ................................................................................................................................... 19
3.9 Southern Ports ...................................................................................................................................... 19
4. ANALYSIS OF CARGO THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS ............................................. 21
4.1 Port of Lisbon ........................................................................................................................................ 22
4.2 Port of Leixões ...................................................................................................................................... 24
4.3 Port of Sines .......................................................................................................................................... 27
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4.4 Port of Setúbal ...................................................................................................................................... 28
4.5 Port of Aveiro ........................................................................................................................................ 31
4.6 Port of Figueira da Foz .......................................................................................................................... 32
4.7 Port of Viana do Castelo ....................................................................................................................... 33
4.8 Port of Faro ........................................................................................................................................... 35
4.9 Port of Portimão ................................................................................................................................... 36
4.10 Port throughput recap .......................................................................................................................... 36
5. METHODOLOGY FOR CARGO THROUGHPUT FORECASTING ............................................... 44
5.1 Explanatory Variables ........................................................................................................................... 44
5.2 Multiple Linear Regression ................................................................................................................... 47
5.3 Linear Interpolation .............................................................................................................................. 49
6. RESULTS ............................................................................................................................... 50
6.1 Products of Forest and Agriculture ....................................................................................................... 50
6.2 Crude oil and LNG ................................................................................................................................. 51
6.3 Minerals ................................................................................................................................................ 52
6.4 Food Products ....................................................................................................................................... 53
6.5 Wood, cork and paper products ........................................................................................................... 55
6.6 Coal and oil products ............................................................................................................................ 56
6.7 Chemical products ................................................................................................................................ 57
6.8 Non-metallic mineral products ............................................................................................................. 58
6.9 Metallic products .................................................................................................................................. 60
6.10 Transport material ................................................................................................................................ 61
6.11 Secondary raw materials ...................................................................................................................... 62
6.12 Unknown cargo ..................................................................................................................................... 63
6.13 Cruise Passengers ................................................................................................................................. 64
6.14 Ports Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 65
7. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................................... 71
7.1 Past trends in cargo throughput ........................................................................................................... 71
7.2 Forecasts for 2015-2024 ....................................................................................................................... 72
7.3 Recommendations for further research ............................................................................................... 73
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................ 75
APPENDIX A – NST 2007 CATEGORIZATION ................................................................................ 78
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APPENDIX B – DATA .................................................................................................................... 82

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List of Figures

FIGURE 1 - EXAMPLES OF FUNCTIONS FITTING DIFFERENT SETS OF POINTS ......................................................... 5
FIGURE 2 - CORRELATION COEFFICIENT OF DIFFERENT SETS OF POINTS ............................................................... 6
FIGURE 3 - TYPICAL MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON STRUCTURE ................................................................................. 7
FIGURE 4 - MAIN PORTS AND INDUSTRIES OF PORTUGAL ................................................................................... 13
FIGURE 5 - MAP OF THE PORT OF LISBON ............................................................................................................ 16
FIGURE 6 - MAP OF THE PORT OF LEIXÕES ........................................................................................................... 16
FIGURE 7 - MAP OF THE PORT OF SINES ............................................................................................................... 17
FIGURE 8 - MAP OF THE PORT OF SETÚBAL ......................................................................................................... 18
FIGURE 9 - MAP OF THE PORT OF AVEIRO ............................................................................................................ 18
FIGURE 10 - MAP OF THE PORT OF FIGUEIRA DA FOZ .......................................................................................... 19
FIGURE 11 - MAP OF THE PORT OF VIANA DO CASTELO ...................................................................................... 19
FIGURE 12 - CRUISE QUAY IN PORTIMÃO ............................................................................................................. 20
FIGURE 13 - PORT OF FARO .................................................................................................................................. 20
FIGURE 14 - DRY BULKS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LISBON ......................................................................... 22
FIGURE 15 - LIQUID BULKS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LISBON .................................................................... 22
FIGURE 16 - GENERAL CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LISBON ............................................................... 23
FIGURE 17 - CONTAINER THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LISBON ....................................................................... 23
FIGURE 18 - CRUISE PASSENGERS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LISBON ......................................................... 24
FIGURE 19 - DRY BULKS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LEIXÕES ........................................................................ 24
FIGURE 20 - LIQUID BULKS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LEIXÕES ................................................................... 25
FIGURE 21 - GENERAL CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LEIXÕES .............................................................. 25
FIGURE 22 - CONTAINER THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LEIXÕES ...................................................................... 26
FIGURE 23 - CRUISE PASSENGERS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LEIXÕES ........................................................ 26
FIGURE 24 - DRY BULKS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF SINES ........................................................................... 27
FIGURE 25 - LIQUID BULKS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF SINES ....................................................................... 27
FIGURE 26 - GENERAL CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF THE PORT OF SINES ........................................... 28
FIGURE 27 - CONTAINER THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF SINES .......................................................................... 28
FIGURE 28 - DRY BULKS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF SETÚBAL ...................................................................... 29
FIGURE 29 - LIQUID BULKS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF SETÚBAL ................................................................. 29
FIGURE 30 - GENERAL CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF SETÚBAL ............................................................ 30
FIGURE 31 - CONTAINER THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF SETÚBAL ..................................................................... 30
FIGURE 32 - RORO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF SETÚBAL .............................................................................. 31
FIGURE 33 - DRY BULK THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF AVEIRO .......................................................................... 31
FIGURE 34 - LIQUID BULK THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF AVEIRO ..................................................................... 32
FIGURE 35 - GENERAL CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF AVEIRO .............................................................. 32
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FIGURE 36 - DRY BULKS THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF FIGUEIRA DA FOZ......................................................... 33
FIGURE 37 - GENERAL CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF FIGUEIRA DA FOZ............................................... 33
FIGURE 38 - DRY BULK THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF VIANA DO CASTELO ....................................................... 34
FIGURE 39 - LIQUID BULK THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF VIANA DO CASTELO .................................................. 34
FIGURE 40 - GENERAL CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF VIANA DO CASTELO ........................................... 35
FIGURE 41 - DRY BULK THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF FARO .............................................................................. 35
FIGURE 42 - GENERAL CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF FARO .................................................................. 36
FIGURE 43 – CRUISE PASSENGER THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF PORTIMÃO .................................................... 36
FIGURE 44 - OVERALL THROUGHPUT OF PORTUGUESE MAINLAND PORTS (TONS) ............................................ 37
FIGURE 45 – CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF SINES, SPLIT BY NST2007 CATEGORIES ............................. 41
FIGURE 46 - CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LEIXÕES, SPLIT BY NST2007 CATEGORIES .......................... 41
FIGURE 47 - CARGO THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF LISBON, SPLIT BY NST2007 CATEGORIES ........................... 41
FIGURE 48 - CARGOS LOADED ON SHIPS IN PORTUGAL, SPLIT BY NST2007 CATEGORIES ................................... 42
FIGURE 49 - CARGO UNLOADED FROM SHIPS IN PORTUGAL, SPLIT BY NST2007 CATEGORIES ........................... 43
FIGURE 50 - HEAVY INDUSTRIES SALES (CONSTANT PRICE 2014) ........................................................................ 45
FIGURE 51 - LIGHT INDUSTRIES SALES (CONSTANT PRICE 2014) .......................................................................... 45
FIGURE 52 - ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN PORTUGAL (TEP)................................................................................... 45
FIGURE 53 - PORTUGUESE GDP AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION (CONSTANT PRICE 2014) ............................... 46
FIGURE 54 - GDP OF THE MAIN ECONOMIC PARTNERS OF PORTUGAL (CONSTANT PRICE 2014) ....................... 46
FIGURE 55 - COMPARISON OF TEU THROUGHPUT BETWEEN SINES AND THE MAIN TRANSSHIPMENT PORTS OF
THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN. THE NUMBER IN THE LEGEND INDICATES THE THROUGHPUT CAPACITY
OF THE PORT IN TEUS/YEAR. ........................................................................................................................ 47
FIGURE 56 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS - LOADED TONS OF PRODUCTS OF FOREST
AND AGRICULTURE ....................................................................................................................................... 51
FIGURE 57 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS - UNLOADED TONS OF PRODUCTS OF FOREST
AND AGRICULTURE ....................................................................................................................................... 51
FIGURE 58 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS - UNLOADED TONS OF CRUDE OIL AND LNG
...................................................................................................................................................................... 52
FIGURE 59 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS – LOADED TONS OF MINERALS ................... 53
FIGURE 60 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS – UNLOADED TONS OF MINERALS .............. 53
FIGURE 61 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS – LOADED TONS OF FOOD PRODUCTS ........ 54
FIGURE 62 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS – UNLOADED TONS OF FOOD PRODUCTS .. 54
FIGURE 63 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS – LOADED TONS OF WOOD, CORK AND
PAPER PRODUCTS ......................................................................................................................................... 55
FIGURE 64 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS – UNLOADED TONS OF WOOD, CORK AND
PAPER PRODUCTS ......................................................................................................................................... 56
FIGURE 65 - FORECAST OF THROUGHPUT IN PORTUGUESE PORTS – LOADED TONS OF OIL PRODUCTS ............ 57
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