eport Pilot study 3

50 Pages·2015·1.35 MB·English

Pilot study 3 eport
Adaptation in
water and coastal
areas in Puglia, Italy
Contents
1 Introduction 1
2 Rationale and objectives 3
3. Pilot area description 4
3.1 Characteristics, hazards and vulnerabilities 4
3.2 Status of climate adaptation initiatives in Puglia 6
4. Methodology description 8
4.1 Module 1 - Climate projections 11
4.2 Module 2 - Sea Level projections 11
4.3 Module 3 - Drought scenarios 11
4.4 Modules 4 and 5 - Risk assessment for agriculture and coastal areas 11
5 Results 14
6 Stakeholder participation 19
7 Interactions among Thematic Center Pilots 21
8 Translating results into actions 22
Annex A.1 23
Annex A.2 26
Annex A.3 31
Annex A.4 35
Annex A.5 39
Annex A.6 43
References 44
Owner and Editor
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
www.cmcc.it
Authors
This report was prepared by a CMCC team led by Monia Santini, Silvia Torresan and Antonio Trabucco,
and including as collaborators (in alphabetical order): Donata Balzarolo, Antonio Bonaduce, Giovanni
Coppini, Andrea Critto, Valentina dell'Aquila, Maria De Salvo, Elisa Furlan, Giulia Galluccio, Federica Gobattoni,
Antonio Marcomini, Sergio Marconi, Paola Mercogliano, Valentina Mereu, Myriam Montesarchio, Jaroslav
Mysiak, Alessandra Nuzzo, Jonathan Rizzi, Paolo Ronco, Silvia Santato, Donatella Spano, Anna Sperotto,
Federica Zennaro, Alessandra Lucia Zollo.
Aknowledgements
The study team wishes to thank the Regional Government of Puglia and its Mediterranean Service (Servizio
Mediterraneo della Regione Puglia), associated partner of the OrientGate project, for their extensive
cooperation during the implementation of the study.
The study team also wishes to thank the following for their support, access to data, and feedbacks: Regional
Government of Puglia - Civil Protection Service (Protezione Civile della Regione Puglia) and
Agrometeorological Service (Servizio Agrometeorologico Regione Puglia); the Environmental Regional
Protection Agency of Puglia (ARPA Puglia); the River Basin Authority of Puglia (Autorità di Bacino della Puglia);
and the Land Reclamation and Irrigation Consortia of Capitanata, Terre d’Apulia, and Stornara e Tara.
2 2
Introduction
It is widely recognized that the
global warming caused by the
increasing presence of GHGs in
the atmosphere is also leading to
changes in rainfall patterns, sea levels Photo: G. Galluccio
and the frequency of extreme
hydro-meteorological events The Pilot Study “Climate change Vulnerability to climate hazards also
(e.g. heat waves, droughts, heavy adaptation in new water regime affects coastal zones where one
rains, storms). These changes are in Puglia region” of the Thematic can find many sectors such as
known to influence ecosystems, Centre on Drought, Water and tourism and fishery that are strategic
human activities and communities in Coasts, was formulated to for the socio-economic
areas ranging from inland to coastal provide tools and guidelines development of the region.
territories, with effects that overlap for local and regional authorities
with those due to population to assess vulnerabilities and risks Risks, derived from the combination
increase, habitat modification, posed by climate change and of hazards, exposure and
overexploitation of natural related extreme events (with vulnerability (IPCC 2014) are even
resources, alteration of biodiversity a focus on droughts). The aim higher over such a vulnerable
and decline of water flows and was to support the improvement territory when exposed to the
quality. of planning for the integrated negative consequences of additional
management of water resources climate-related hazards, like sea level
Several studies have agreed that the and coastal zones, by providing rise, soil erosion, floods, fires,
Mediterranean Basin is a climate scientific information which groundwater depletion and salt
change hotspot (Diffenbaugh and is both sound and updated water intrusion into aquifers.
Giorgi 2012; Giorgi 2006), with in regard to expected climate Therefore, it becomes increasingly
warming expected to be higher than terrestrial and marine hazards, important to develop approaches
the global average and mostly and consequent impacts on and methodologies that are
concentrated in summer (Giorgi and domestic water supply, integrated, holistic, cross-sectoral
Lionello 2008). IPCC (2013) mentions agriculture and coasts. and adaptive in order to efficiently
very likely1increase in temperature support decision makers in the
throughout the 21stcentury, and also The region of Puglia was chosen in design and formulation of adaptation
very likelyincrease of the number of order to build on CMCC’s previous strategy plans which include climate
warm days and nights, and decrease experiences and collaborations with change impact assessments.
of the number of cold days and local authorities, and since Puglia’s In the following paragraphs, details
nights.Even though there is high level territory well reflects typical on the Pilot Study’s implementation
of uncertainty in predicting conditions of the Mediterranean are provided, about objectives and
precipitation, there are signals region. In fact Puglia is exposed to
methodologies formulated which
for a future decrease of the annual hydro-climatic hazards associated
have been tailored and applied to
precipitation amount, coupled especially to increasing
the territory of Puglia, and about
with an increase in the intensity and temperatures, heat waves and
results achieved. Finally, the method
frequency of rainfall extreme events droughts, which affect widely socio-
by which results can be
(Garcia-Herrera et al. 2014; Giorgi economic sectors competing for
communicated and included in
2006; IPCC 2013). Although the sea water resources. Vulnerability
level in the Mediterranean did not concerns a region largely engaged planning for climate change
change or even decreased in the in agricultural production, and also adaptation is summarized into key
recent past (Ramieri et al. 2011), highly dependent on the surrounding messages and recommendations for
a rise in the global mean sea level regions for water resources stakeholders and decision makers.
will allow the regional sea level (SOGESID 2009) that are crucial
in the Mediterranean to harmonize in order to sustain irrigation as well
1The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2013;
with the global trend, as projected as domestic water supply, ecological 2014) defines likelihood as the probability of an
in CIRCE project simulations function and lastly industrial and event or outcome occurring. Very likely is used for
an event or outcome having more than 90%
(Gualdi et al. 2013). energy purposes.
probability to occur.
1
Photo: G. Galluccio
Rationale The Pilot Study in Puglia was 5)Providing a comprehensive view
conceived in order to address the of the cascading phenomena that
and need of including climate adaptation could be triggered by climate change,
into planning, by concentrating on ranging from their physical impacts
the step of vulnerability and risk and processes to the evaluation of
objectives
assessment, in order to then foster vulnerability of interacting systems,
the execution of successive steps sectors and resources, in order to
concerning communication of quantify the risk.
climate trends, impacts,
vulnerabilities and risks, and their 6)Synthetizing results into
consideration by decision makers. quantitative indicators, formulated
Proper vulnerability and risk also thanks to stakeholder
assessment was thus intended as a consultation, for a concise and
mixture of a bottom-up approach realistic description and
(based on dialogue with communication of the climate
stakeholders) and a top-down change challenges that affect
approach (based on indicators), the addressed systems, sectors
and has been implemented by and resources.
following some specific objectives:
Once vulnerabilities and risks under
1)Involving stakeholders at an earlier climate change are identified and
stage of the analysis to map their communicated, needs and goals can
Given the increasing concern in existing degree of awareness of be identified to support
Puglia for climate change, its climate change and its impacts, their a “mainstreaming”2process for
extremes and consequences, there is current capacity in governance to funding, implementing and testing
an urgent need to integrate address these issues, their of the adaptation measures.
adaptation to climate change as part requirements to understand and be
of the traditional water and coast updated on expected trends, and
(and other territorial) management the degree of climate change
and protection plans. The integration consideration existing in the decision
process should follow for example making processes.
the Integrated Coastal Zone
Management policy cycle which is 2)Identifying priority areas for
often used by coastal practitioners adaptation in terms of sectors,
and includes five specific steps: 1) systems and resources exposed to
vulnerability assessment; 2) planning climate change and variability:
and selection of a course of action; priorities should be selected through
3) formal adoption of adaptation an on-going, iterative and inclusive
actions; 4) implementation; and 5) process of consultation with
evaluation (USAID 2009). One of the stakeholders’ groups and decision
key points of this approach is that makers.
the process of planning is gradually
rather than radically changed by the 3)Reviewing historical records to
introduction of the climate change reconstruct climate variability,
component. In addition the Risk hazardous events and their
Governance Framework (IRGC 2005) consequences, and to validate the
and the Climate Risk Management area of interest’s climate projections
framework (Martinez et al. 2012), representative of a range of medium
both emphasizing the key role of to long-term outlooks.
“communication”, could also be
helpful if enlarged to cover not only 4)Converting each climate
disaster risk management but also projection into the quantification of 2 In the context of climate policies, mainstreaming
means integrating climate concerns and adaptation
adaptation, since adaptation should biophysical and socio-economic
responses into relevant policies, plans, programs
be understood as a precautionary impacts and risks, by exploiting and projects at national, sub-national, and local
scales, better if cross-cutting multiple sectors,
risk avoidance or minimization state-of-the-art and well
without allowing adaptation to get lost among
strategy. consolidated procedures. many other competing priorities.
3
Pilot area 17°C, while mean annual population of Puglia is above 4
precipitation varies from 400 mm million (ISTAT 2011) with an
description to 1300 mm with 600 mm being the increasing, even if decelerating,
approximate average. The region’s trend maintained during the whole
climate can be defined from arid of the last century. The economy
sub-humid to arid according to of Puglia is characterized by an
3.1CHARACTERISTICS, temperature and precipitation emphasis on agriculture, favored by
HAZARDS AND regime. the gentle topography, generating a
VULNERABILITIES share of gross domestic product
Concerning the hydrogeological (GDP) above the national average
settings, the calcareous origin of (5.24% in Puglia vs. 2.65% in Italy),
Puglia’s bedrocks have given rise and driven principally by wine, olive
to karstic phenomena which have oil and wheat production. Puglia also
limited the development of a heavily relies on the touristic sector,
superficial river network, except for which is a growing economic
The territory of Puglia (Figure 3.1) the northern area; endorheic basins resource (OECD 2011). An always
has an area of about 19,345 km2and are numerous and the underground less role is played by industry,
consists of a long and narrow region, water circulation, one of the main except for the food industry that
bordered by two seas, the Ionian water sources for the region, is well- emphasizes the importance of
and Adriatic, with the longest developed. agriculture complemented by fishing.
coastline among Italian regions
Time series of observations from
(865 km); Puglia is also the least In terms of land use/cover, more
meteorological stations in Puglia
mountainous region in Italy being than 82% of Puglia’s surface
show trends towards warmer and
mostly occupied by plains and hills. comprises agro-ecosystems, with
marginally drier conditions during
about 7% of natural vegetation and
the second half of the 20thCentury.
Information extracted from the 7% of mixed territories, while urban
Combined trends of increasing
Regional Water Protection Master areas cover the remaining 4%
evapotranspiration and decreasing
Plan (WPMP; SOGESID 2009) (Zaccarelli et al. 2008).
precipitation implied a progressively
suggests that mean annual air From a socio-economic point of
larger water deficit (Hemming et al.
temperature ranges from 10°C to view, since the early 2000s the
Figure 3.1- Map showing location and topography of Puglia.
4
2013). While climate model suggest that wine and oil production for agricultural production and
projections suggest warmer and could be impacted in a negative way domestic uses; iv) the standards
drier conditions also over the next by the drier and hotter conditions required (e.g. minimum
few decades (Goodess et al. 2013), expected to characterize Puglia in environmental flow) to maintain the
a further increase in the water deficit the first half of 21stCentury (Reale et ecological function of water in rivers
would not be sustainable and would al. 2011). Other results (Mereu et al. and/or lakes. Population growth
have a large negative impact on 2008; Ponti et al. 2014) suggest that (recently mainly caused by
human and agricultural sectors, and oil production could be favored by immigration) and tourism
on the environment. new climate regimes, as high (EUROIDEES 2013) worsen this
temperatures are optimal for growth situation increasing the region’s
One of the major vulnerabilities of and development of olives, giving overall vulnerability because of
Puglia relating to climate change a higher yield and therefore greater decreasing water availability and
regards the use of water resources, profit. However, a new climate increasing water demand particularly
whose share is about 54% for regime could also change the during summer.
agriculture, 36% for domestic use suitability of lands (Ferrise et al. 2013;
and 10% for industry. Puglia is Moriondo et al. 2013) and the crop In this context, the increasing human
already forced to import water from exposure to new invasive pests presence and activity in Puglia’s
nearby regions (up to 50% of the (Ponti et al. 2014). coastal areas makes them vulnerable
resource is traded in, with domestic to the occurrence of events of great
use reaching 75%; SOGESID 2009) Regarding extreme events, recently impact and low frequency (e.g.
and to extract water from aquifers Puglia region was alternatively extreme storm surge and tsunami
for irrigating crops because of the affected by out-of-normal climatic tidal waves) (Mastronuzzi and
seasonal nature of many rivers. years, e.g. droughts in 2011-2012, Sansò 2012). Moreover, the state
floods in 2013-2014 and fast of the coast is seriously affected by
Overexploitation of groundwater fluctuations of droughts/floods in modifications due to erosion (Fiore
from private wells is already an issue 2008-2009, that caused pollution in et al. 2010): 65% of coasts are
at regional scale, since a regulation the Occhito reservoir (WHO 2011). undergoing erosion processes
plan for groundwater exploitation This climate variability under (Antonioli and Silenzi 2007).
is missing, leading to depletion of opposite extremes endangers:
underground water bodies in i) the availability of (sub)surface Finally, long parts of the coasts and
quantity but even in quality water and soil moisture to offset the especially the Salento peninsula are
especially favoring sea water evapotranspiration demand from also vulnerable to relative sea level
intrusion (Polemio et al. 2007; crops not fully satisfied by rain; ii) rise (Sansò and Mastronuzzi 2013;
Piccinni et al. 2008). the temporal reliability of water yield Antonioli and Leoni 2007), increasing
from existing infrastructures for the coastal vulnerability to salt water
Concerning agriculture, results from water accumulation/diversion intrusion being already a
the EU FP6 funded CIRCE project (single and multipurpose dams); iii) widespread problem in Puglia
(http://www.circeproject.eu/) the quality of water to be provided (Polemio et al. 2010).
5
3.2STATUS OF CLIMATE overall institutional coordination, financial needs and the identification
ADAPTATION INITIATIVES through the involvement of regional of funding sources. Currently,
IN PUGLIA and local authorities dealing with ten Italian Regional Governments
planning and management of coastal adopted their LAP, comprising Puglia
areas. Some Italian regional in 2008.
governments have started
approaching the ICZM to different In this context, and under the
extents: Puglia activated preliminary guidance of the National Committee
testing of the ICZM approach or to Combat Desertification, IMELS
plans for land protection and spatial promoted a number of Pilot projects
planning and, in 2012, the region to combat desertification that go
signed the agreement, known as beyond the LAPs. In fact, they
“Bologna Charter 2012”, to promote are extended toward the use of
a common framework among experimental techniques and
European regions, for strategic methods (e.g. use of indicators for
actions aimed at the protection environmental monitoring, mapping
and sustainable development of boundary of areas sensitive/at risk
coastal areas. of desertification from different
processes) for actions aimed at
As far as hydraulic risk is concerned, improving knowledge and directly
In July 2014, the Italian government Puglia region has started the process intervening in the territory. To date,
concluded the elaboration of a of implementation of the Flood six Italian Regional Governments
National Adaptation Strategy (NAS), Directive (2007/60/EC) by carried out such pilot projects, with
accepted by the State-Region providing a first release of regional Puglia starting in 2008.
Conference in October 2014, and flood hazard and risk maps in 2013.
whose completion was supported According to the directive, flood risk Further initiatives aimed at protecting
by the establishment of a technical, assessments should also consider the soil and restoring its stability have
scientific and legal expert panel and impacts of climate change on the been and will be included
by involving stakeholders early occurrence of floods. Accordingly, respectively in the 2007-2013 and
on in the process. next steps will be the evaluation of 2014-2020, Rural Development Plans.
climate scenarios and of their Puglia’s initiatives in particular will
A National Adaptation Plan (NAP) influence in the frequency and entail: improving soil quality and
is still missing, while regional to local intensity of floods and finally reducing the organic content loss;
adaptation strategies and plans are in the assessment of risks. renewable energy production plants
rare. Some adaptation initiatives from biomass and other renewable
have already been implemented in As requested by the United Nation sources; water resources
the context of the existing policies Convention on Combating management and water saving
for environmental protection, natural Desertification (UNCCD), Italy technologies.
hazards prevention, sustainable developed and approved the
management of natural and water National Action Programme to The projected increase of drought
resources and of coastal areas, fight Combat Drought and Desertification. frequency and water scarcity,
against desertification and health To support achievement of its goals, especially localized in Southern Italy,
protection. Those initiatives can be the Regional Governments and River are of particular interest for the local
found at national and sub-national Basin Authorities were delegated policy agenda. Such issues are
scale in some cases responding to with the responsibility to accordingly driving the development of suitable
EU Directives’ requirements or develop Local Action Programmes responses in combination with the
international agreements. (LAPs), aimed at: identifying specific other components of EU water
regional areas sensitive and/or at risk regulation. Implemented initiatives
While at the national level Italy of desertification through the include the establishment of ad hoc
is required to prepare a strategy application of a methodology organizations for crisis management
on Integrated Coastal Zone supported by an appropriate set in order to regulate the use of water
Management (ICZM), including of indicators at the regional scale; and take the necessary measures to
prevention and/or reduction of the define specific action plans for the prevent water crises, like
effects of natural hazards and of prevention, mitigation and a “Coordination Unit
climate change, the Italian Ministry adaptation to drought and for the management of water
for the Environment Land and Sea desertification; and provide resources” shared between Puglia
(IMELS) has already started an guidance for quantification of the and Basilicata Regions.
6

Methodology The spatial domain of the Pilot Study and water demand, this leads to
was outlined to cover from the a fourth dimension known as socio-
description inland to the coastal territory of economic drought, which occurs
Puglia and its contiguous areas that when water supply is not sufficient
contribute to water provision to the to meet human needs and causes
region. At temporal level, a baseline a decrease in the provision of goods
reference period (from 1976 to and services.
2005) and two future periods in the
The overall methodology for Pilot medium term (from 2021 to 2050) As far as coastal areas are
Study 3 was designed and and long term (from 2041 to 2070) concerned, Mediterranean
conducted through a were considered. In each future simulations of sea level rise along
comprehensive integrated approach period the exemplification of a Puglia’s coasts were combined with
connecting data, models, possible range of future conditions topographic and land use layers to
downscaling procedures, spatial was allowed thanks to updated and investigate the risks that could arise
analysis techniques, decision high resolution climate and impact from the permanent submersion of
support tools and indicators, into projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 productive or significant areas (for
a chain of activities ranging from emission scenarios. The RCP4.5 is a tourism, agriculture, transports,
hazard quantification (at process stabilization scenario where total industry) with consequent losses of
level: climate and hydrology) to radiative forcing is stabilized shortly land and related economic revenues.
vulnerability and risk assessment after 2100 to 4.5 W m2
(at resource/sector level: water, (approximately 650 ppm CO Here we present a brief description
2
agriculture and coasts). Links among equivalent) by employing of the main modules of the
these components are strongly technologies and strategies to integrated approach, to provide
based on the use of indicators, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. a quick overview of the
aimed at synthetizing complex The RCP8.5 is a business as usual methodologies and tools applied in
scientific information into quantities scenario and characterized by the case study. More details about
easy understandable and increasing greenhouse gas emissions the methodologies applied for the
communicable to stakeholders and and high greenhouse gas assessment of climate change and its
policy makers (Martinez et al. 2012). concentration levels, and impacts on water resources,
To effectively promote the representing a rising radiating forcing agriculture and coastal zones are
integration of knowledge into pathway leading to 8.5 W m2in 2100 reported in Annex A.1, A.2, A.3 and
decision making, indicators have (approximately 1370 ppm CO A.4, while the list of used indicators
2
been grouped into hazard, equivalent). and indices is reported in Annex A.5.
exposure, vulnerability and risk
categories3, in order to classify the Concerning water resources,
information to be used and guide in attention was paid to the
identifying priorities for regulations investigation of the complex
and investments. interactions between water and 3According to IPCC (2014): Hazard is the potential
occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical
drought in its main dimensions: a)
event or trend or physical impact that may cause
The overall integrated approach can meteorological, defined by the loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well
as damage and loss to property, infrastructure,
be articulated into five main modules degree of dryness (in terms of lack
livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and
schematized in Figure 4.1. Starting of rain) compared to the average, environmental resources. In the IPCC Fifth
from the main component and by the duration and the Assessment report, the term hazard refers to
climate-related physical events or trends or their
represented by climate modeling, frequency of the dry periods; b)
physical impacts; Exposure is the presence of
providing simulations about current agricultural, where meteorological people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems,
and future atmosphere and ocean drought reflects into drop of soil environmental functions, services, and resources,
infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural
regime for the Puglia Region moisture leading to negative impacts
assets in places and settings that could be
(Modules 1 and 2), the risk especially for rainfed agriculture; and adversely affected; Vulnerability is the propensity
or predisposition to be adversely affected.
assessment is performed considering c) hydrological, when precipitation
Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts
drought hazards, scenarios (both for shortfalls affect surface or and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility
the agro-meteorological and subsurface water bodies, impacting to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt;
Risk is the potential for consequences where
hydrological component) (Module domestic, industrial and ecological
something of value is at stake and where the
3) and the consequent impacts on water uses and also agriculture in its outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity
rainfed/irrigated agriculture (Module irrigated component. Such drought of values. Risk is often represented as probability
of occurrence of hazardous events or trends
4), as well as quantifying the dimensions can both be triggered in
multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends
potential consequences of rising sea cascade and exist simultaneously, occur. Risk results from the interaction of
vulnerability, exposure, and hazard. In this report,
levels on low-lying coastal areas and since their impacts are a
the term risk is used primarily to refer to the risks
(Module 5). complex mixture of water availability of climate-change impacts.
8