Table Of ContentI N T E R N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y A G E N C Y
ENERGY
TO 2050
Scenarios for a
Sustainable
E
Future N
E
R
G
Y
Analysing the interaction between energy and climate change T
O
mitigation issues requires the adoption of a long-term
2 ENERGY
perspective — looking up to fifty years ahead. The future is, by
0
definition unknown and cannot be predicted, particularly over 5
0
longer periods. However, strategic planning and political
decisions demand that we explore options for the future — and S
c
these are best developed through scenarios (conjectures as to
e
what might happen in the future based on our past and present n TO 2050
a
experience of the world and on plausible speculation about how r
these trends may further evolve). io
s
f
This volume introduces different types of scenarios, evaluating o
r
how they can be used to analyse specific aspects of the
a Scenarios for a
interaction between energy and environment over the longer
S
term. It examines “exploratory scenarios” (based on different u
s
expectations of technical and/or policy developments over the ta Sustainable
next 50 years) and “normative scenarios” (based on a set of in
desirable features or “norms” that the future world should a
b Future
possess). These long-term scenarios complement the IEA’s World le
Energy Outlook, which presents a mid-term business-as-usual
F
scenario with some variants. u
t
u
The analysis in this volume seeks to stimulate new thinking in this re
critical domain. It contributes to our collective thinking about
how to solve the challenges of climate change in the context of
a more secure and sustainable energy future.
-:HSTCQE=UV^UYV:
(61 2003 26 1 P1) 92-64-01904-9 €75
2003
I N T E R N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y A G E N C Y
ENERGY
TO 2050
Scenarios for a
Sustainable
Future
page2-16x23 9/01/03 10:32 Page 1
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR
9, rue de la Fédération, ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
75739 Paris Cedex 15, France AND DEVELOPMENT
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in
autonomous body which was established in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came
November 1974 within the framework of the into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and for Economic Co-operation and Development
Development (OECD) to implement an inter- (OECD) shall promote policies designed:
national energy programme.
• to achieve the highest sustainable economic
It carries out a comprehensive programme of growth and employment and a rising standard
energy co-operation among twenty-six* of the of living in Member countries, while maintaining
OECD’s thirty Member countries. The basic aims financial stability, and thus to contribute to the
ofthe IEA are: development of the world economy;
• to maintain and improve systems for coping • to contribute to sound economic expansion in
with oil supply disruptions; Member as well as non-member countries in the
process of economic development; and
• to promote rational energy policies in a global
context through co-operative relations with non- • to contribute to the expansion of world trade
member countries, industry and international on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in
organisations; accordance with international obligations.
• to operate a permanent information system on The original Member countries of the OECD are
the international oil market; Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France,
Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy,
• to improve the world’s energy supply and
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal,
demand structure by developing alternative
Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United
energy sources and increasing the efficiency of
Kingdom and the United States. The following
energy use;
countries became Members subsequently
• to assist in the integration of environmental and through accession at the dates indicated
energy policies. hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland
(28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971),
* IEA Member countries: Australia, Austria, New Zealand (29th May 1973), Mexico (18th
Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland (22nd
Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, November 1996), the Republic of Korea (12th
the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, December 1996) and Slovakia (28th September
Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United 2000). The Commission of the European
Kingdom, the United States. The European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD
Commission also takes part in the work of the IEA. (Article 13 of the OECD Convention).
© OECD/IEA, 2003
Applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this publication should be made to:
Head of Publications Service, OECD/IEA
2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France
or
9, rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France.
Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
FOREWORD
Analysing the intersection between energy and climate change mitigation
issues requires the adoption of a very long-term perspective. Energy
infrastructure takes a very long time to build and has a useful life often
measured in decades. New energy technologies take time to develop and
even longer to reach their maximum market share. Similarly, the impact of
increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activities
develops over a very long period (from decades to centuries), while policy
responses to climate change threats may only yield effects after
considerable delay. Analysis that seeks to tackle these issues must take a
similarly long term view – looking ahead at least thirty to fifty years.
Unfortunately, analysis of such time frames is an uncertain science. The
future is by definition unknown and cannot be predicted. While over time
horizons of ten years the inertia of the energy/economy system is so
strong as to leave little room for change, over longer periods, the future will
almost certainly look different than the present.
Projections and scenario analysis can help us to understand the factors
that might affect the future of the energy economy. These include
uncertain future technological developments, economic growth,
government policies and a maze of product introductions and consumer
responses that can, over the long run, fundamentally change how and why
we use energy.
The IEA has conducted considerable work projecting future trends: our
World Energy Outlook has long been recognised as the authoritative
source for projections of global energy supply and demand, as well as
future energy investments and carbon dioxide emissions. The World Energy
Outlook contains reference and alternative policy scenarios reflecting that
outcomes will depend on what new policies are undertaken by
governments. However, the time-horizon of World Energy Outlook
projections focuses on a thirty year time period in which the uncertainty
that could result from unpredictable factors is relatively small. Past this
time horizon, these factors become increasingly important and the way
these long-term projections can be used fundamentally changes.
With this book, the IEA explores a longer time horizon using two types of
long-term scenarios: "exploratory scenarios" and "normative scenarios".
Exploratory scenarios are based on the correct identification of a few
critical uncertainty factors and are designed to explore several plausible
3
Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
future configurations of the world, based on different expectations of
technical and/or policy developments over the near- to medium-term.
Normative scenarios are a developed to evaluate “how” a specific outcome
can be reached. They are designed on the basis of a set of desirable
features (or “norms”) that the future world “should” possess (of course,
reflecting a bias of the agent elaborating the scenarios). The exercise then
consists of tracing backwards a viable path from such an outcome to
today– pointing the way to reaching that desirable future. This type of
scenario is inherently policy oriented and prescriptive, i.e. it assumes that
appropriate policy actions can shape a future in the desired image, and is
designed to identify the policy actions required. Such work requires
substantial effort because several scenarios (each with its own internally
consistent and plausible chains of events or storyline) have to be
developed in order to analyse how uncertainty factors play into future
development paths.
The results from these and other such scenarios can help identify robust
strategies to minimize costs of both economic dislocations and
environmental damage in the development of future energy paths, in turn,
assisting in promoting better policy choices in the energy sector. While the
scenarios depicted here do not represent a consensus view of the IEA
member countries – and equally, are not likely to come to pass in the
precise way they are outlined, the methodology which supports them
provides a useful tool for IEA country governments to assess and, when
appropriate, consider redirecting their energy and environment policies.
Claude Mandil
Executive Director
4
Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was developed over a period of two years by Maria Rosa Virdis
under the direction and with the strong support of Jonathan Pershing,
Head of the Energy and Environment Division.
Several IEA colleagues provided feedback on earlier drafts of the
manuscript, including: Richard Baron, Cédric Philibert, Nicolas Lefèvre,
Martina Bosi, Laura Cozzi, Giorgio Simbolotti, Dolf Gielen, Lew Fulton.
Useful comments were also offered by Noé Van Hulst, Marianne Haug,
Fatih Birol and Pierre Lefèvre. William Ramsay provided invaluable
encouragement throughout the process. Maggy Madden gave technical
support in organising the 2001 workshop on longer term scenarios, in
formatting the manuscript and much more.
In addition to the review provided by IEA governments through the
Standing Committee on Long-term Cooperation, special thanks go to
several external reviewers for their extensive comments: Kevin Cliffe and
Ian Hayhow of Natural Resources Canada, Socrates Kypreos of the Paul
Scherrer Institute (CH), Philip Bagnoli and Ken Ruffing of OECD/ENV.
Nebojsa Naki´cenovi´c of IIASA provided methodological advice in the early
stages of the project while Keywan Riahi (also at IIASA) supplied data on
the SRES scenarios run with the MESSAGE model; the author claims sole
responsibility for any misuse of their data.
Finally, the special appreciation of the author goes to Loretta Ravera,
Muriel Custodio, Corinne Hayworth and Michael Tingay for their
dedication and creative contribution in making this publication possible.
5
Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword 3
Acknowledgements 5
List of Figures in Text 10
List of Tables in Text 11
Background 13
What are Scenarios and why they are Useful? 13
Different Types of Scenario 15
Objectives and Purpose of this Study 16
Outline of Book Contents 17
1. Long Term Energy and Environment Scenarios:
the Literature 19
General Methodological Aspects 19
Basic Definitions 19
Developing a Scenario – Key Elements 20
Taxonomy 21
Review of Recent Scenario Work 25
Global Scenarios 25
•Shell’s Scenarios 25
•Stockholm Environment Institute - Global Scenario Group 29
•World Business Council for Sustainable Development 33
•Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios 34
•Millennium Project 38
Country Scenarios 41
•Canada: Energy Technology Futures 41
•The Netherlands: Long-term Outlook for Energy Supply 44
•The United Kingdom Foresight Program – Energy Futures 45
A Critique of Scenarios 47
2. Three Exploratory Scenarios to 2050 57
Background 57
Methodology 59
7
Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
Three Exploratory Scenarios to 2050 62
Common Features of the Three Scenarios 62
Elementsthat Differentiate the Scenarios 64
Scenario 1 Clean, but not Sparkling 65
2000-2025: Riding on Good Intentions 67
•Developed Countries 67
•Developing Countries 72
2025-2035: a Time of Growing Economic Constraints 74
2035-2050: Pushing Ahead 76
Scenario 2 Dynamic but Careless 78
2003-2015: Abundant Energy Resources 80
•Developed Countries 81
•Developing Countries 82
2015-2030: Supply Security and Environmental Challenges 84
•Security Risks 84
•Environmental Stress 87
2030-2050: a New Stage of Technological Development 88
Scenario 3 Bright Skies 90
2003-2025: Lowering the Emissions Curve 92
•Developed Countries 92
•Developing Countries 96
2025-2050: Joining Efforts for Long-term Technology 97
Comments and Implications of the Three Exploratory Scenarios 101
General Comments 101
Implications for Policy and for Technology 102
3. A Normative Scenario to 2050:
the SD Vision Scenario 111
Background 111
Normative Characteristics 112
Climate Change Mitigation 112
Energy Security and Diversification 115
Access to Energy 119
Building a Reference Framework 120
A Normative Case: the SD Vision Scenario 123
Regional Implications of the SD Vision Scenario 131
Policy Implications 135
8
