DTIC ADA504075: Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies

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Withdrawing fromIraq. Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and
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Mitigating Strategies
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Withdrawing from Iraq
Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks,
and Mitigating Strategies
Walter L. Perry, Stuart E. Johnson, Keith Crane,
David C. Gompert, John Gordon IV, Robert E. Hunter,
Dalia Dassa Kaye, Terrence K. Kelly, Eric Peltz, Howard J. Shatz
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense
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Cover photo: The Iraqi flag flutters as a soldier of the 5th Squadron, 4th Cavalry regiment,
salutes during the transfer ceremony of the JSS Ghazaliyah IV security station to full Iraqi
Security Forces control in the Ghazaliyah district of Baghdad on February 14, 2009.
Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images
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Preface
Security has improved dramatically in Iraq since 2007; both the U.S. and the Iraqi
governments want to see the U.S. presence reduced and have the Iraqis assume a
greater role in providing for public security. These developments have brought the
United States to a critical juncture in Iraq. The emerging challenge is to continue a
withdrawal of U.S. forces while preserving security and stability in the country and
in the region. With this in mind, the U.S. Congress provided resources in the fiscal
year 2009 Defense Appropriations Act for an independent study to assess alternative
schedules to draw down U.S. forces and effect the transition to Iraqi forces provid-
ing for the nation’s security. This study assesses the feasibility of three such plans and
makes recommendations designed to reduce the risks attendant on withdrawal; these
recommendations are, for the most part, relevant whichever drawdown schedule is
ultimately met. The analysis supporting this report was completed in May 2009, and
the illustrative schedules all assume implementation decisions having been made in
time for implementation in May, if not earlier. To the extent that such decisions are
made later, the schedules would likely be pushed back accordingly. We recognize that
any drawdown schedule that calls for U.S. forces remaining in Iraq beyond the end
of December 2011 would require renegotiating the Security Agreement between the
United States and Iraq.
The RAND Corporation National Defense Research Institute was asked to
conduct this study. This report documents the study findings. It describes alterna-
tive drawdown schedules and analyzes how internal Iraqi security and stability and
regional political and military issues might affect and be affected by these plans. It
should interest senior members of the Obama administration, including policymakers
in the Departments of Defense and State, members of Congress, and military planners
and operators.
This research was sponsored by the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of
Defense for International Security Affairs and conducted within the International
Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Defense Research
Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center sponsored by
the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Com-
iii
iv Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies
mands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the
defense Intelligence Community.
For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy
Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins, who can be reached by email at
[email protected]; by phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the RAND
Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050. More infor-
mation about RAND is available at www.rand.org.
Contents
Preface ................................................................................................. iii
Figures ................................................................................................. xi
Tables .................................................................................................xiii
Summary ..............................................................................................xv
Acknowledgments ...............................................................................xxxiii
Abbreviations .................................................................................... xxxvii
ChAPTer One
Introduction ........................................................................................... 1
The Purpose of This Report ........................................................................... 2
Why Three Alternatives? ............................................................................ 2
The Effects of the Drawdown ...................................................................... 3
Methodology ........................................................................................... 3
About This Report ..................................................................................... 5
ChAPTer TwO
Drawdown Scheduling............................................................................... 7
Ending the Combat Mission in Iraq ................................................................. 8
Iraqi Security Forces ................................................................................... 9
U.S. Military Forces in Iraq .........................................................................10
Sequencing the Withdrawal of U.S. Combat and Support Forces ..............................11
Implementation and the Rotation Schedule .......................................................12
The Security Agreement Referendum...............................................................12
Three Alternatives .....................................................................................13
Rationale .............................................................................................14
Defining the Alternatives ..........................................................................15
Alternative 1: Combat Units Depart by April 30, 2010 ..........................................16
Planning..............................................................................................16
ISF Support ..........................................................................................16
Security ...............................................................................................17
Leaving Iraq .........................................................................................18
v
vi Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies
Unforeseen Contingencies .........................................................................18
Mitigation Measures ................................................................................18
Alternative 2: Mission of U.S. Forces Changes After August 2010 .............................19
Planning............................................................................................. 20
ISF Support ......................................................................................... 20
Security ...............................................................................................21
Leaving Iraq .........................................................................................21
Unforeseen Contingencies ........................................................................ 22
Implications of This Alternative .................................................................. 22
Alternative 3: Maintain Combat and Noncombat Units Through December 2011 ......... 22
Planning............................................................................................. 23
ISF Support ......................................................................................... 23
Security .............................................................................................. 24
Leaving Iraq ........................................................................................ 24
Unforeseen Contingencies ........................................................................ 24
Implications of This Alternative ...................................................................25
Conclusion .............................................................................................25
Shortfalls in the Iraqi Armed Forces’ Capability Beyond 2011 .............................. 26
ChAPTer Three
Logistics Factors and Constraints Affecting the Drawdown ................................29
Drawdown Processes ................................................................................. 30
Planning the Redeployment of a Unit ............................................................31
Moving U.S. Military Personnel Out of the Region ............................................31
Moving Military Vehicles from the Region ......................................................32
Base Closure ........................................................................................ 36
Methodology ..........................................................................................37
Assessment of U.S. Military Personnel Movement Capacity ................................. 38
Assessment of Convoy Capacity for Military Vehicles and Unit Equipment ............... 38
Assessment of Staging and Washrack Capacity ................................................ 40
Assessment of Customs and Agricultural Inspection Capacity ............................... 40
Assessment of Sterile Lot Capacity and Disposition Instructions .............................41
Assessment of Port and Shipping Capacity ......................................................41
Assessment of Base Closure or Transfer Time .................................................. 42
Overall “Baseline” Findings ........................................................................ 42
Mitigating Logistics Risks or Improving Drawdown Capabilities ............................. 43
Affecting Capacity ................................................................................. 44
Reducing Demand on Convoys and on Base Closure or Transfer Time .................... 46
Shifting Demand to Alternative Redeployment Modes—Convoy Substitutes ..............47
Conclusion .............................................................................................49
Contents vii
ChAPTer FOur
Internal Security and Stability ....................................................................51
The Role of the MNF-I in Promoting Internal Security ........................................ 54
Dangers ................................................................................................ 54
Extremists ........................................................................................... 56
Mainstream Armed Opposition Groups .........................................................57
Politicized Iraqi Security Forces ...................................................................63
The Impact of a Weakened Economy ........................................................... 66
Summary of Dangers .............................................................................. 66
Security Needs That Will Remain Unmet After Full U.S. Military Withdrawal .............67
Direct Threats to U.S. Personnel ....................................................................71
Extremists ............................................................................................71
Main Opposition Groups ..........................................................................73
A Summary of Potential Threats to U.S. Forces and Personnel ...............................74
An Assessment of Drawdown Options in Light of Dangers to Iraq’s Security
and U.S. Personnel ...............................................................................75
ChAPTer FIve
regional effects ......................................................................................79
Iran......................................................................................................81
Overt Iranian Military Intervention ..............................................................82
Covert Iranian Actions and Links to Regional Proxies ........................................82
The Counterweights of Arab Nationalism and Iraqi Shi’ism ..................................83
Iraqis Avoid Provoking Iran .......................................................................83
Iranian Levers of Influence in Iraq............................................................... 84
Saudi Arabia .......................................................................................... 86
Risks to Saudi Arabia from the New Iraq ....................................................... 87
Saudi Levers of Influence ..........................................................................89
Syria .................................................................................................... 90
Syrian Interests in Iraq .............................................................................91
Instruments of Syrian Influence in Iraq ..........................................................91
The Degree of Syrian Intervention in Iraq ...................................................... 92
Turkey ..................................................................................................93
Israel ....................................................................................................95
Effects of the Drawdown on Iraq’s Relations with Regional Powers ........................... 96
Serious Challenges Remain ....................................................................... 96
Military Intervention by Iraq’s Neighbors ...................................................... 96
The Importance of the Political Process ......................................................... 97
The View from Iraq’s Neighbors ................................................................. 97
The Possibility of Heightened U.S.-Iranian Tensions .......................................... 97