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GRANT NUMBER: DAMDI7-94-J-4174
TITLE: Utilizing Serial Measures of Breast Cancer Risk Factors
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR(S): Mimi Y. Kim, Sc.D.
CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: New York University Medical Center
New York, New York 10010-2598
REPORT DATE: January 1996
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Utilizing Serial Measures of Breast Cancer Risk Factors DAMD17-94-J-4174
6. AUTHOR(S)
Mimi Y. Kim, Sc.D.
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New York University Medical Center REPORT NUMBER
New York, New York 10010-2598
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13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words)
Failure to account for errors-in-measurement of exposure and confounder
variables can result in biased estimates of relative risk. We have developed
a technique for correcting for measurement error when subjects have a variable
number of repeated measurements and the average of the measurements is used as
the subject's measure of exposure in the analysis. A bootstrap method for
obtaining confidence intervals of the relative risk estimates, which takes
into account the variability in the estimates of the correction factors, has
also been devised. In addition, we have considered a model for adjusting
hormone measurements for systematic fluctuations over the menstrual cycle,
which will allow more valid ccmparisons of hormone levels between pre-
menopausal cases and controls. Finally, most studies on the half-lives of
environmental contaminants such as PCBs, which have been linked with an
increased risk of breast cancer, have been based on small sample sizes and a
limited numberbf repeated measurements. We have developed guidelines for
choosing the number of subjects, repeated measurements, and time interval
between measurements in the design of half-life studies.
14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES
breast cancer biostatistics epidemiology 52
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Overview
1. Project I: Correcting for Measurement Error in the Analysis of Case-
Control Data with Repeated Measurements of Exposure
1.1 Introduction ..................................................... 7
1.2 Methods ........................................................ 9
1.3 Example ....................................................... 14
1.4 Conclusions ..................................................... 17
1.5 References .................................................... 21
2. Project II: Adjusting hormone levels for day of menstrual cycle in
pre-menopausal women
2.1 Introduction ................................................... 25
2.2 Methods ........................................................ 26
2.3 Conclusions ..................................................... 28
2.4 References .................................................... 30
3. Project III: Sample size and study design considerations for half-life
studies
3.1 Introduction . ................................................... 32
3.2 Methods ........................................................... 33
3.3 Example ........................................................ 39
3.4 Conclusions .................................... . ............. 42
3.5 References ..................................................... 47
3.6 Appendix I ..................................................... 49
3.7 Appendix II ................................................ 51
¾
Overview
With prospective cohort studies incorporating the periodic collection of blood samples from
participants, one has the greater potential to study the temporal relationship of biomarkers
and other risk factors to the development of disease than with retrospective case-control
studies. However, statistical methods for analyzing repeated measurements have not been
fully explored and developed. Furthermore, methods for estimating and correcting for errors-
in- measurement using repeated measurements remain obscure and are seldomly applied in
epidemiologic studies. The objectives of this project are to apply as well as develop theo-
retical statistical methods for utilizing repeat determinations of serum levels of endogenous
hormones and other biologic measurements in the analysis of nested case-control studies of
breast cancer, and to estimate and correct for errors-in-measurement.
This progress report describing research accomplished during the first year of the grant
period is comprised of three chapters. In Chapter I, we describe a technique for correcting
for measurement error when subjects have a variable number of repeated measurements,
and the average of the measurements is used as the subject's measure of exposure in the
analysis. Failure to account for errors-in-measurement of exposure and confounder variables
can result in biased estimates of relative risk, obscuring the true relationship between an
-exposure variable with breast cancer risk. Our method applies a correction factor to the
subject's average value, prior to model fitting, which is a function of the number of repeated
measurements. The resulting logistic regression estimate based on the corrected exposure
measurement is unbiased. A bootstrap method for obtaining confidence intervals, which
takes into account the uncertainty in the reliability estimates is also proposed. A manuscript
based on this work is currently in preparation.
In Chapter II, we describe a method for adjusting for the systematic variability of hor-
mone levels over the menstrual cycle, based on a mixed ANOVA model with cubic splines.
The method standardizes hormone measurements obtained at different time during the
menstrual cycle, thus allowing for more valid comparisons of hormone levels between pre-
menopausal breast cancer cases and controls. This research is still in progress.
Finally, in order to fully elucidate the role of environmental contaminants, such as PCBs,
in the development of breast cancer, their rates of persistence in the body must be accurately
quantified. Individuals who are able to clear the toxic compounds from the body at a
faster rate (as measured by the half-life of the toxin) may be at lower risk of breast cancer.
Published estimates of the half-life of PCBs, however, have been widely variable, ranging
from .5 months to 17 years. The lack of consistency among study estimates may be largely
due to the small sample sizes and limited number of repeated measurement per subject
utilized in these studies. Guidelines for choosing the number of repeats and the optimal
time interval between repeats for estimating an individual's half-life with a given level of
precision, while minimizing the cost of the study, have been developed and are described
in Chapter III. Furthermore, sample size and power considerations for studies comparing
two-population half-lives are also presented. A paper describing this work has been accepted
for publication by Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology.
Chapter I
Correcting for Measurement Error in the Anal-
ysis of Case-Control Data with Repeated Mea-
surements of Exposure
1 Introduction
In most case-control studies, the risk factors of interest are measured with error. For biologic
variables, such as blood pressure, nutrient, and hormone levels, measurement error can arise
from limitations in the measurement technique or laboratory assay. In addition, because the
exposure of interest is usually a subject's underlying long-term average value rather than
the level at any single point in time, intrinsic fluctuations in the variable over time can also
contribute to measurement error.
When the error is random and non-differential with respect to case-control status, it is well
known that estimates of relative risk based on the mis-measured exposure will be attenuated.
In order to minimize the effects of measurement error, many investigators advocate collecting
repeated measurements of the exposure on all subjects and using the individual's average
value (De Klerk et al., 1989). However, as noted by Rosner et al (1992), even when the mean
of several replicates is substituted for a single measurement, attenuation of relative risk may
still occur, especially when the average is based on only a few repeats or when the degree of
measurement error is large.
Methods for correcting estimates of relative risk for measurement error have been ad-
dressed in a number of epidemiologic and statistical papers (Armstrong et al., 1989; Thomas
et al., 1993). The most common method involves correcting the "naive" relative risk esti-
mate based on the observed exposure by the expected amount of bias. In the case of logistic
relative risk regression, the regression parameter will be attenuated by the factor, R, which
is equal to the reliability coefficient of the mis-measured exposure (Rosner et al., 1992, De
Klerk et al., 1989). Therefore, one can multiply the biased estimate of the regression co-
efficient by the inverse of the reliability coefficient to obtain the corrected estimate. This
method, however, is dependent on the assumption that the reliability of the exposure mea-
surement is the same for all subjects. When the average of several replicates is used as the
measure of exposure, this condition will be met only if all subjects have an equal number
7
of repeated measurements, given the degree of measurement error associated with a single
measurement is the same for all subjects.
In studies in which the exposure is measured on repeated occasions, however, subjects
often have a variable number of measurements because of missing data. For example, the
data that are utilized to illustrate the methods in this paper are derived from the NYU
Women's Health Study, a nested case-control study of serum hormonal levels and breast
cancer (Toniolo et al). The study cohort consists of 15,785 women who donated multiple
blood samples over time and have been followed since enrollment for the development of
breast cancer. Most women have donated one or two samples; however, many have also
donated three or more.
Because subjects with a larger number of multiple blood samples have a more precise
measure of their true underlying serum hormonal levels than those with fewer measurements,
the reliability of the average of the available measurements will correspondingly vary between
subjects. Consequently, if the observed average is used as the measure of exposure for each
subject, the usual procedure for correcting for measurement error cannot be applied.
Liu and Liang (1992) proposed an estimating equation approach for obtaining consistent
estimates of logistic regression parameters when all subjects have the same number of re-
peated imprecise exposure measurements, which in principle could be extended to the more
complicated situation when the number of replicates is variable between subjects. In this
paper, we discuss an alternative method for correcting for measurement error in the analysis
of matched case-control data when subjects have a variable number of repeated exposure
measurements and the individual's average is used as the measure of exposure. A bootstrap
algorithm for obtaining confidence intervals, which takes into account the variability due to
estimation of the reliability coefficent is also proposed. The methods are illustrated using
data from a nested case-control study of estradiol levels and risk of breast cancer from the
NYU Women's Health Study.
8
2 Methods
In describing the methods below, we assume the measurement error model of Armstrong et al
(1989) for matched case-control studies. The techniques are generalizable to the unmatched
design by assuming there is only one matching stratum.
Let xij denote the true value of the exposure variable for the Jth subject in stratum i,
for i = 1, ..., M;j = 1, ..., si Assume that xij is normally distributed with mean, p + 6 if the
subject is a case, or pi if she is a control, and variance o,. In addition, let Zijk denote the kth
repeated observation of xij, for k =1, ... , nij. Then, assuming the classical errors-in-variables
model, we have:
Zijk = Xij + eijk,
where the error term, eiJk, is independent of xij and eiik, for k -- k', and normally distributed
with mean 0 and variance, o It follows that the observed Zijk in stratum i are normally
distributed with means pi + 6 and pti for cases and controls, respectively, and common
variance, a' + oa. The variance component, o- , can be interpreted as the between-subject
variance of the true exposure, adjusted for matching stratum and case/control status, and
U2as the variance due to measurement error.
Under these assumptions, Armstrong et al (1989) showed that the probability that a
study subject is a case, conditional on an observed average based on n measurements, Z, and
membership in stratum i, is a logistic function:
= exp(ax + PRJ)
1 + exp(ai + I3Rn,)' (1)
where
R = (2)
is the reliability of ; as a measure of x. When no measurement error is present, 2 = x, the
reliability coefficient is equal to 1, and (1) reduces to:
exp(ai + Ox)
Pr(D = lx;i) = 1 + exp(ai + Ox)"
9
