DEMATEL-ANP Risk Assessment in Oil and Gas Construction Projects

24 Pages·2017·1.37 MB·English

sustainability
Article
DEMATEL-ANP Risk Assessment in Oil and Gas
Construction Projects
GholamrezaDehdasht1,RosliMohamadZin1,M.SalimFerwati2 ID,
Mu’azuMohammedAbdullahi3,AliKeyvanfar4,5,6,7,* ID andRonaldMcCaffer8
1 DepartmentofStructureandMaterials,FacultyofCivilEngineering,UniversitiTeknologiMalaysia,
Skudai81310,Malaysia;[email protected](G.D.);[email protected](R.M.Z.)
2 DepartmentofArchitectureandUrbanPlanning,CollegeofEngineering,QatarUniversity,Doha2713,
Qatar;[email protected]
3 CivilEngineeringDepartment,JubailUniversityCollege,RoyalCommissionofJubailandYanbu,
Jubail31961,SaudiArabia;mailto:[email protected]
4 FacultyofBuiltEnvironment,UniversitiTeknologiMalaysia,Skudai81310,Malaysia
5 MIT-UTMMSCPProgram,InstituteSultanIskandar,UniversitiTeknologiMalaysia,Skudai81310,Malaysia
6 FacultaddeArquitecturayUrbanismo,UniversidadTecnológicaEquinoccial,
CalleRumipambas/nyBourgeois,Quito170508,Ecuador
7 SchoolofArchitectureandUrbanPlanning,IranUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Tehran11369,Iran
8 SchoolofArchitecture,BuildingandCivilEngineering,LoughboroughUniversity,
LoughboroughLE113TU,UK;[email protected]
* Correspondence:[email protected];Tel.:[phone]
Received:13June2017;Accepted:31July2017;Published:11August2017
Abstract: Oil and gas construction projects are complex and risky because of their dynamic
environment. Furthermore, risingglobalenergydemandhasincreasedtheneedfortrustworthy
risk assessment models for such projects that can provide adequate and precise policy planning.
Traditionalriskassessmentsinoilandgasconstructionprojectsdonotconsidertheinterrelationships
offactorsinthebest-fitmodels. TheDecisionMakingTrialandEvaluationLaboratory(DEMATEL)
andAnalyticNetworkProcesses(ANP),calledtheDEMATEL-ANPapproach,havebeenappliedto
otherresearchdisciplinestoaddressthisshortcoming. Thismethodisabletoconstructastructural
relationshipamongthedifferentinfluencefactorstovisualizecomplexcorrelations.Thus,thepurpose
ofthisstudyistoshowcasetheDEMTAL-ANPriskassessmentmodeltoassesstheoverallriskfactors
of OGC projects. This study thus identifies the crucial risk criteria of such projects. Data were
collectedin2016throughinterviewswithexpertsactiveinOGCprojectsinIran. DEMATELinthis
situationisusedtodeterminetheinterdependencies’relativestrengthsamongtherisks. TheANP
method is applied to assess the relative importance of the risk factors and to determine the best
strategyforimplementationofariskmanagementprogram. Theresultspresentedinthisstudyarea
noveladaptationoftheriskassessmentmethodologytoOGCprojectsthatdeterminestheimportant
riskfactorsthatdirectlyaffecttheprojectsuccess,whichinturnhelpsinformulationofpoliciesfor
ensuringreliableenergysupplyplanning.
Keywords: riskassessment;constructionproject;oilandgas;DEMATE;ANP
1. Introduction
Energy demand is rising, and it is anticipated that worldwide investment in energy-related
projects will reach $38 trillion through 2035 [1,2]. In the discussions of sustainable development,
energyisoneofthekeyfactorsthatmustbeconsidered[3–5]. OGCprojectsarecomposedofhigh
levelsofriskbecauseofintensiveinvestment,numerousstockholders,complextechnology,andunique
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nature[6,7]. Theseriskscanbeeconomic,political,social,andtechnicalinnature,aswellasrelatedto
thenaturalenvironmentandnaturaldisasters[8,9]. Recognizingtheriskrelatedtoenergyisnotonly
aconstructionmarketneed,butalsoitisimportanttotheupstreamaswellasdownstreamoilandgas
industrysub-sectors[10]. Constructionprojectsplayakeyroleinthesustainableoilandgassupply
chainandprocessing[11,12]. Duetothisimportance,governmentsofdevelopingcountriesareunder
pressuretoensurethatprojectswillbefinishedontimewithleastamountofriskanduncertainty[13].
Aproperriskmanagementstrategyleadstolowercostsandincreasescompetitivenessintheenergy
market[14]. Therefore,it’snecessarytoidentifyandassessthemajorrisksfacedbyOGCprojects,
inordertohelpcompaniesthatplanorworkinsuchprojectsdevelopplanstoensuresustainable
energysupplychains. Furthermore,recognizing,highlightingandanalyzingtheimportantriskfactors
associated with OGC companies can assist in proper planning, successful implementation of risk
managementandappropriateresponsestoeliminate,transferorcontrolthecorrespondingrisks.
Theconstructionindustryiswidelyassociatedwithahighdegreeofriskbecauseofitsnature,
process, activities, technologicalcomplexity, organizationandenvironment[15,16]. ISO31000has
introducedriskas“aneffectofuncertaintyonobjectives”andriskfactorhasbeendefinedasafact
or situation that increases the possibility of risk, according to Cambridge Dictionary. Factors that
increasethisriskareagrowingnumberofstakeholders,longdurationofaprojectandinterfacewith
areactionbetweenexternalandinternalenvironment[17]. Engagementwithvariousparticipants,
suchasdesigners,owners,suppliers,contractorsandsubcontractorsareanadditionalreasonfora
high volume of fundamental risks [18,19]. In the body of knowledge of project risk management,
thereareanumberoforderlyandofficialmethodsforidentifying,assessing,classifying,responding
and managing risks during the life cycle of a project [20,21]. It is a dynamic process that tends to
decreasetheprobabilityandeffectofnegativeeventsandpromotetheprobabilityandeffectofpositive
events[22]toattainanoptimalgradeofriskelimination,control,andmitigation[21]. Projectriskmay
haveanegativeorpositiveimpactonatleastoneoftheprojectobjectives,forexample,cost,time,
quality,etc.[19,23]. Allconstructionprojectscontainriskthatcanbeminimized,managed,transferred,
acceptedorignored[24,25]. Itisimpossibletoremoveallprojectrisks. Therefore,successfulprojects
arethosethatidentifyrisksatanearlystageandefficientlyassessandmanagethem[15,26]. Onthe
otherhand,alackofadequateattentionandassessmentofriskinaconstructionprojectisthecauseof
costoverruns,poorperformance,anddelay[23,27]. Unfortunately,constructionprojectsarenotas
advancedatanalyzingandassessingriskscomparedwithmanyotherindustries[28,29]. Lackofa
riskmanagementmethodologyduringOGCprojectsnotonlycanleadtodelaysandcostoverruns
butalsocanbecriticalforpricingenergypolicies[13]. Thus,thereisaneedforidentifyingthemost
importantgrouprisksandrelatedriskfactorsbecauseoftheeffectonconstructiondecisionmaking.
Therefore,toincreasethechanceofsuccessanddecreasepossibleriskinaconstructionproject,the
majorgrouprisksanduncertainfactorsshouldberecognized,classified,assessedandmonitored.
Recently,severalstudieshaveappliedMulti-CriteriaDecisionMaking(MCDM)techniques,such
asTOPSIS,AHP,ANP,andDEA,forriskassessmentofconstructionprojects[19,30–32]. MCDMhas
beenappliedinoilandgasupstreamanddownstreamindustryaswell[3,33]. Thesetechniquesare
veryuseful,especiallyfordealingwithcomplexproblems,complexsystems,unclearvariablesand
limitedinformation[23,34].
TraditionalriskassessmentinOGCprojectshasnotconsideredtheinterrelationshipoffactorsin
thebest-fitmodels[7,35,36]. TheDecisionMakingTrialandEvaluationLaboratory(DEMATEL)and
AnalyticNetworkProcesses(ANP),calledtheDEMATEL-ANPapproach,havebeenappliedtoother
researchdisciplinestoaddressthisshortcoming[37,38]. AccordingtoFazlietal.[37],thecombination
ofDEMATELandANPisthebestriskmitigationstrategyduetothefactthatDEMATELisableto
visualizethecomplexinterrelationshipsamongcriteria. ANPassessesthedependenciesandfeedbacks
amongfactorstoselecttherelativeweightsoftheriskfactors. DEMATEL-ANPisthusaneffective
methodthathelpsmanagerstoselectthebeststrategiestorespondtotheoverallriskseffectively.
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Theobjectiveofthispaperistodeterminethekeyriskgroupsandriskfactorsandproposearisk
assessmentframeworktoevaluatetheoverallrisksinOGCprojects. Tofindaninfluencestrategyto
respondtopotentialriskswithinOGCprojects,itisnecessarytoanalyzeinterdependenciesamong
risksandidentifythemostimportantthatinfluencerisks. Theintegratedhybridmethodologyofthe
DEMATELandANPapproacheswasemployedtodeterminetheinterdependencyoftherisksandthe
importanceofeachriskfactor. Thefinalmodelisalsosimulatingtheimpactofdifferentpossiblerisks
inorganizationandtheirperformanceinOGCprojects.
DEMATEL is a complete method for constructing a structural model to solve the complex
interrelationships by describing cause and effect groups or factors. The DEMATEL technique is
accordingtodiagraphswhichcandivideinfluencecriteriaintocauseandeffectgroups. Basedon
theresultsobtainedfromDEMATELmethod,theANPmodelcanbeconstructed. Infact,DEMATEL
solvestheproblemofunrealisticinterdependenciesofANPthatweredeterminedinthefirststep
ofthesaidmethod. ANPmethodhasbeenmadetomanageuncertainhumanjudgments[39]. The
DEMATEL-ANPapproachhasbeenemployedinordertopromotetheabilitiesoftheANPmethodfor
managinginconsistentanduncertainjudgmentsofdecisionmakersinriskgroupprioritizationand
relativeriskfactorweightswithinOGCprojects.
Therestofthispaperisorganizedasthefollowing. InSection2,relatedliteraturegapandthe
contribution of this study towards risk assessment in OGC projects are presented. Subsequently,
Section3describestheriskmanagementprocessincludingthemostimportantriskgroupsandrisk
factors as well as the fuzzy risk assessment process. In addition, both DEMATEL and ANP are
introduced. Next, in Section 4, a hierarchical structure of project risk factors for OGC projects is
proposed. ThesaidsectionalsoentailsDEMATEL-ANPcalculationoutcomesandtheresultsofthis
research. Finally,Section6concludesthestudy.
2. ProblemStatementandOurContributions
Thispaperinvestigatesthesignificantriskgroupsandassociatedriskfactorsinordertopropose
ariskassessmentmethodologyforOGCprojects. Thequestionsthathavebeeninvestigatedinthis
researchare: (1)Whatarethecurrentpracticesofriskmanagementinconstructionprojects? (2)What
aretheimportantriskgroupsandriskfactorsthatinfluencetheimplementationofriskmanagementin
OGCprojects? (3)WhatwouldbetheresultofapplyingtheDEMATEL-ANPmethodtoconstruction
riskassessmentofoilandgasprojects?
Wecandividethesignificanceofthisstudyintotwosections: First,constructionriskrelatedtooil
andgascompanieshasnotbeenthoroughlystudied. AccordingtoHaghnevisandSajedi[40],despite
variousstudiesandproposedmethodologiesandmodelsformanagingrisk,aspecificmethodologyor
modelwithconcentrationsonasingleindustryanditsuniqueapplicationsstillhadnotbeendeveloped
ThesameobservationalsoiswellunderstoodbyresearchreportedbyGilbertetal.[41]. Also,previous
studiesonriskmanagementwithinOGCprojects,concentratedmoreonriskidentificationratherthan
proposingnewriskassessmentmethodologies[7,35]. Inthisregard,thereisalackofdevelopmentofa
methodologyfortheparticularassessmentofrisksforOGCprojects. Furthermore,basedonKuoand
Lu[32],itisnecessarytostudymorecreativeriskassessmentresultsfurther. Therefore,thepurposeof
thisstudyistoproposeanovelmethodologyforriskassessmentthatissuitableforOGCprojects.
Secondly,thispaperinvestigatesthesignificantlevelofinterdependencybetweencriticalrisk
factors necessary for developing an implementation plan for risk management in OGC projects.
DEMATEL-ANPhasbeenappliedtoassessandpredictthelevelofimportancefordeterminedrisk
factorstodevelopariskmanagementimplementationplaninOGCprojects. Inthisrespect,DEMATEL
isusedtoconstructtheinterrelationsamongtheriskfactorsintheintegratedmodel. Thismethod
teststherelativestrengthbetweenriskfactors. Also,theANPtechnique,whichisusedfordefining
therelativeimportanceofriskfactors,ispresented. Thismethodisusedforweightingandprioritizing
criticalriskfactorsinOGCprojects.
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3. RiskManagement
Riskmanagementisoneofthemostimportantpartsofdecisionmakingbecauseriskhasserious
effectsonquality,productivity,performanceandbudget[42,43]. Constructionprojectsareexposedto
highlevelsofriskanduncertaintybecauseoftheirdynamicandcomplexnature[44,45].Projectsuccess
isthreatenedbyrisks,andignoringriskhasbeenshowntobeasourceoftimeandcostoverrunsin
constructionprojects[42]. Riskmanagementisasignificantpartofprojectmanagementbecauseit
involvespredictingtheoccurrenceofeventsthathaveanegativeeffectontheprojectobjectiveand
definingproperactionstominimizetheimpactoftheseevents[46,47].
Severalstudieshavedefinedriskmanagement,buttheconclusionofthesestudiesismostlyto
minimizetheriskimpactandmaximizetheopportunities[48–50]. Riskmanagementisapolicythat
canbedescribedasaplanorprincipletomakedecisionstoobtainthedesiredconsequences[8,51].
TheISO31000:2009standardrecommendsariskmanagementframeworkthatusespolicies,practices,
andproceduresthroughouttheorganization. Riskmanagementisamethodthatfunctionstoidentify,
classify and quantify all risks related to a project or business so that an informed decision can be
madeformanagingtherisks[15]. Riskmanagementisaneffectivemethodthatnotonlycanhelp
identifydifferenttypesofrisksbutalsoassistinmanagingtheserisksintheconstructionprojectlife
cycle[19,21].
Itisproventhatriskmanagementisnecessaryforsuccessfulprojects, andthewholemethod
isemployedinvarioussectorsofconstructionprojectstoassurethequalityoftheproductinthese
areas [5,32]. There is a strong connection between the level of project success and focus on risk
management [52]. Hence, implementation of risk management has been identified as critical for
constructionprojectstoincreasetheirperformanceandensureachievementofprojectobjectives[30,53].
Thesuccessofriskmanagementrequiresawideassessmentofriskmanagementprocesses[32].
In the said field, numerous studies that have suggested various processes for risk management.
Aformalprocessofriskmanagementcanbedividedintoseveralcategories,i.e.,riskidentification
andclassification,riskassessment,andriskresponse[54–56]. PMI[57]classifiedriskmanagement
processintosixstages,namely(1)riskmanagementplanning;(2)riskidentification;(3)qualitativerisk
analysis;(4)quantitativeriskanalysis;(5)riskresponseplanning;and(6)riskmonitoringandcontrol.
Ontheotherhand,Althausetal.[58]categorizedsixmainsteps,whichincluded(1)identificationof
keyissues,whichcouldbeproblemsinthefuture;(2)generatingcreativeanalysis;(3)presentation
ofnewmethods,whicharesimilartodevelopingapolicyinstrument,coordinationandconsultancy;
(4)decisionmaking;(5)operation;and(6)evaluationofpolicyefficiency.
Consequently, risk management can be summarized as a group of processes that involve
recognizing,assessingandrankingrisksbymanagerialresource,monitoringandcontrollingwith
organizedandeconomiceffort,whichwouldsubsequentlyhelptoreducetheimpactofundesired
eventsthatcouldaffectthesuccessofaproject[59]. Inaddition,aneffectiveriskmanagementprocess
requires a project manager to be involved in certain tasks and responsibilities such as promoting
confidencetodeliverprojectobjectives,providingaseriesoffavorablealternativeactions,developing
chanceofsuccess, reducingundesiredeventsanduncertainties, improvingactualestimating, and
reducingreworkthroughpromotingteamawarenessaboutrisk[60].
Thissectionisfocusedonseveralissues. Firstly,itreportstheclassificationandidentificationof
themostimportantgroupofrisksaswellasriskfactorsinanOGCproject. Secondly,relatedworksfor
riskmanagementarediscussed. Thirdly,theconceptsofAnalyticalNetworkProcess(ANP)approach
aswellasDecisionMakingTrialandEvaluationLaboratory(DEMATEL)areintroduced. Figure1
presentsanoverviewofariskassessmentprocess,whichisalsoahybridproposedmodelusingboth
ANPandDEMATEL.AsshowninFigure1,themodelconsistsofthreemainsteps,whichincluderisk
identificationandclassification,riskassessmentbasedonbothANPandDEMATEL,anddetermining
themostimportantgroupofrisksandriskfactors.
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start
Classification and
identification risks
Establish risk Identify risk
groups factors
Construct Hierarchical structure
of Project Risk
Apply DEMATEL to analyze the interdependent
relationship among the risks
Apply ANP to calculate the weights of the risks
Determine the most important risk group and risk
factors for oil and gas construction projects
Finish
FFiigguurree 11.. DDEEMMAATTEELL--AANNPP rriisskk aasssseessssmmeenntt ffrraammeewwoorrkk..
3.1. Classification and Identification of Risks
3.1. ClassificationandIdentificationofRisks
Risk identification means the method of formulating those risks that may impact project
Riskidentificationmeansthemethodofformulatingthoserisksthatmayimpactprojectobjectives
objectives and recording their characteristics [34]. PMBok [61] has defined risk classification as a
and recording their characteristics [34]. PMBok [61] has defined risk classification as a structure
structure that ensures the effectiveness and quality of the risk identification process into a reliable
thatensurestheeffectivenessandqualityoftheriskidentificationprocessintoareliablelevel. Risk
level. Risk classification and identification is a significant part of risk management because several
classificationandidentificationisasignificantpartofriskmanagementbecauseseveralrisksoccurin
risks occur in construction projects [62]. The goal of risk identification is to prepare a list of probable
constructionprojects[62].Thegoalofriskidentificationistopreparealistofprobablerisksthatshould
risks that should be managed during a project [57]. The risk factors that are present or anticipated
bemanagedduringaproject[57]. Theriskfactorsthatarepresentoranticipatedshouldbeidentified
should be identified both for their likelihood and impact on project objectives [63]. Risk identification
bothfortheirlikelihoodandimpactonprojectobjectives[63]. Riskidentificationandclassification
and classification enables the user to enhance the transparency of the analysis [64,65]. The lack of
enablestheusertoenhancethetransparencyoftheanalysis[64,65]. Thelackofidentificationand
identification and classification of risks according to their sources, determination of the possibility of
classificationofrisksaccordingtotheirsources,determinationofthepossibilityofanoccurrenceand
an occurrence and the effect on construction objectives are the main problems of implementing risk
theeffectonconstructionobjectivesarethemainproblemsofimplementingriskmanagementandrisk
management and risk analysis [45,66]. It is necessary for construction projects to identify and deal
analysis[45,66]. Itisnecessaryforconstructionprojectstoidentifyanddealwithuncertainrisks(some
with uncertain risks (some risks are not uncertain, as they can be easily identified before starting a
risksarenotuncertain,astheycanbeeasilyidentifiedbeforestartingaproject,forinstance,weather
project, for instance, weather conditions). Evaluating their impact on the project objectives helps with
conditions). Evaluatingtheirimpactontheprojectobjectiveshelpswithplanningandmanagingeach
planning and managing each potential source of risk [67]. It is impossible to identify all risks in a
potentialsourceofrisk[67]. Itisimpossibletoidentifyallrisksinaproject[15]. Identificationofall
project [15]. Identification of all risks is time consuming and not productive; therefore, it is important
risksistimeconsumingandnotproductive;therefore,itisimportanttohighlightthemostcritical
to highlight the most critical risks in construction projects [62].
risksinconstructionprojects[62].
Construction risks can be classified and identified using different techniques and methods.
Constructionriskscanbeclassifiedandidentifiedusingdifferenttechniquesandmethods.Several
Several researchers classify risk according to the source and origin of the risk [15,19,49,68,69] or type
researchersclassifyriskaccordingtothesourceandoriginoftherisk[15,19,49,68,69]ortypeofrisk[70].
of risk [70]. In addition, some studies have categorized risk into internal and external groups based
Inaddition,somestudieshavecategorizedriskintointernalandexternalgroupsbasedonthesourceof
on the source of the risk [62,71,72]. The difference between internal and external risk is that internal
therisk[62,71,72]. Thedifferencebetweeninternalandexternalriskisthatinternalrisksarerisksthat
risks are risks that are under the control of the project management team, while external risks are
areunderthecontroloftheprojectmanagementteam,whileexternalrisksareoutsidethecontrolof
outside the control of the team [73]. Brainstorming, interviews, checklists, benchmarking,
theteam[73]. Brainstorming,interviews,checklists,benchmarking,questionnaires,Delphitechnique,
questionnaires, Delphi technique, experts’ evaluation, and past experience are the most frequent
experts’evaluation,andpastexperiencearethemostfrequentmethodsusedforqualitativeriskfactor
methods used for qualitative risk factor identification in management studies [46,66,74,75].
identificationinmanagementstudies[46,66,74,75]. AccordingtoPMI[57],thebestmethodistheone
According to PMI [57], the best method is the one that the project team is most familiar with and most
thattheprojectteamismostfamiliarwithandmostobtainedfromtheprojectobjectives.
obtained from the project objectives.
Risk identification and classification has been performed in many fundamental studies for
Risk identification and classification has been performed in many fundamental studies for
constructionprojects. Theoutcomeofthesestudiesistheclassificationofnumerousrisksthatimpact
construction projects. The outcome of these studies is the classification of numerous risks that impact
construction project objectives. Flanagan and Norman [55], and Perry and Hayes [76] classified
construction project objectives. Flanagan and Norman [55], and Perry and Hayes [76] classified eight
eight major risks: design, material, planning, weather, subcontractors’ manpower, subcontractor
major risks: design, material, planning, weather, subcontractors’ manpower, subcontractor co-
ordination, skill and techniques and poor workmanship. Abdou [77] grouped risks into three
subclasses, which are financial, time and design. In a study by Kalayjian [78] about hidden risk
Sustainability2017,9,1420 6of24
co-ordination, skill and techniques and poor workmanship. Abdou [77] grouped risks into three
subclasses, which are financial, time and design. In a study by Kalayjian [78] about hidden risk
frequentlyencounteredinthirdworldconstructionprojects,heintroducedfourgroupsofrisksthat
arecommoninglobalconstructionprojects: political,financial,weatheranddesign. TahandCarr[79]
dividedprojectriskintointernalandexternalrisksusingthehierarchicalriskbreakdownstructure
(HRBS).Chapman[49]recognizedandcategorized58risksintofourgroups: project,environment,
industryandclient. Shenetal.[80]presented58riskfactorsofconstructionjointventuresinChinaand
classifiedthemintosixmaingroupsbasedonthenatureoftherisk: legal,policyandpolitical,legal,
financial,managementandtechnical. KartamandKartam[70]proposed26typesofrisksassociated
withconstructioncompaniesinKuwait. Lametal.[81]presented16riskfactorsrelatedtoconstruction
projectsintermsofcontractorcapability,contractualandlegal,politicalandsocietal,economicand
physical. Zou et al. [15] introduced 85 risk factors for construction in China that were prioritized
accordingtotheireffectsondistinctiveprojectobjectivesintermsoftime,quality,environment,cost
andsafety. Atthesametime,Tangetal.[82]intheirresearchfortheconstructionindustryinChina
presented32riskfactorsinfivegroups: quality,design,safety,financialandfacility. Karimetal.[83],
intheirresearchaboutcontractor’sperceptionsofsignificantrisksinconstructionprojectsinMalaysia,
classified25risksinfivecategoriessuchasconstruction,political,design,financialandenvironment.
Tadayonetal.[84]found11typesofrisksforconstructionprojectsinIran: financial, construction,
product, political, environment, technological, geographical, geotechnical, communication, legal
andsocial.
In a recent study, Kuo and Lu [32] investigated the relative impact of 20 risk factors on the
performance of metropolitan construction projects. These risks were divided into five categories:
design,constructionmanagement,socialandeconomy,safetyandnaturalhazard. Taylanetal.[19]
assessedaconstructionprojectinSaudiArabiaanditsoverallriskforanuncertainandincomplete
situation.Theyevaluated30riskfactorsandclassifiedthemintofivemaincategories:cost,time,quality,
environmentsustainabilityandsafety. Sixteenriskfactorswereintroducedandrecognizedascritical
riskfactors. Eletal.[85]evaluatedtheriskfactorsthataffecttimeandcostcontingencyinconstruction
projectsinEgypt. Theydivided70riskfactorsintofourcriteriaandthirteensubcriteria. Thefirst
criterion is the site condition, which has three sub criteria, which are environmental, sub-surface
andsitelocation. Thesecondcriterionisprojectparties,whichisdividedintolabor,equipmentand
material. Thethirdandfourthcriteriaareprojectpartiesandprojectfeatures,respectively,whichhave
thesubcriteriaofowner,engineeringdesign,contractor,projectmanagement,financial,politicaland
schedule. DziadoszandRejment[66]presentedeightriskfactorsinthethreegroupsoftime,budget
anddesigntocomparethreedifferentmethodsofriskanalysisinconstructionprojects. Baghdadi
andKishk[72]classified54riskfactorsforanairportconstructionprojectintothreelevels: internal,
externalandforcemajeure.
RiskmanagementrelatedtoOGCprojectshasnotbeenthoroughlystudied. Therearejustafew
studiesthathavefocusedonriskmanagementinthissectorofconstructionprojects. Thuyetetal.[7]
assessed 59 major risk factors related to OGC projects in Vietnam. Ten of these risks factors
are identified as the most critical factors. Mubin and Mubin [86] identified 40 risk factors for
pipelineconstructionprojectsinPakistanandclassifiedthemintoeightgroups: political,economic,
organization,investment,technological,security,naturaldisasterandecologicalrisk. Inotherresearch
byMubinandMannan[36],theyinvestigatedtheriskfactorsrelatedtoengineering,procurementand
construction(EPC)contractsforoilandgasprojects. Theyidentified168riskfactorsandclassified
themintosevengroups: financial,human,quality,procurementandcontractual,projectmanagement,
proposalandengineering. El-Shehabyetal.[35]evaluatedtheriskfactorsrelatedtoconstructionof
off-shoreoilandgasprojects. Fifty-nineriskfactorswereidentifiedinthisresearchandthetopnine
riskswererecognizedascriticalrisks. Table1presentsataxonomyofclassificationandidentification
ofriskinconstructionusedinthisstudy.
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Table1.Taxonomyofclassificationandidentificationofriskinconstruction.
NumberofRisk RiskFactorIdentification
ProjectType RiskClassification Author
Factors Techniques
1.Legal
4.Financial Pastexperience
2.Political
ConstructionJointVenture 5.Technical Shenetal.[80] 58risks Interview
3.Management
6.Market Questionnairesurvey
Interview
1.Environment 3.Project
ConstructionDesignManagement Chapman[49] 58risks Brainstorming
2.Industry 4.Client
Delphi
1.Political 3.Weather
ThirdWorldConstructionProject Kalayjian[78] Notspecified Interview
2.Financial 4.Design
1.Economicrelated
2.Political-related
3.DesignRelated
GeneralConstructionProject 4.Levelofcooperation BaloiandPrice[68] 36risks Literaturereview
5.Constructionrelated
6.Estimatorrelated
7.Fraudulentpracticesrelated
1.Contractorcapability
Literaturereview
2.Contractualandlegal
Consultingexperts
GeneralConstructionProject 3.Economic Lametal.[81] 16risks
Interview
4.Physical
Questionnaire
5.Politicalandsocietal
Literaturereview
1.Time
4.Safety Consultingexperts
GeneralConstructionProject 2.Cost Zouetal.[15] 85risks
5.Environment Interview
3.Quality
Questionnaire
1.Design
2.Constructionmanagement Literaturereview
MetropolitanConstructionProject 3.Socialandeconomy KuoandLu[32] 20risks Consultingexperts
4.Safety Interview
5.Naturalhazard
1.Cost 4.Environmentand Consultantexperts
GeneralConstructionProject 2.Time Sustainability Taylanetal.[19] 30risks Interview
3.Quality 5.andSafety Questionnaire
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Table1.Cont.
NumberofRisk RiskFactorIdentification
ProjectType RiskClassification Author
Factors Techniques
Literaturereview
1.Socio-cultural
4.Industry Consultingexperts
GeneralConstructionProject 2.Economic AydoganandKoksal[87] 19risks
5.Project Interview
3.Politic
Questionnaire
Literaturereview
1.ProjectFeatures 3.SiteCondition
GeneralConstructionProject Eletal.[85] 70risks Consultingexperts
2.ProjectParties 4.Resource
Questionnaire
1.Construction,
4.Financial Literaturereview
GeneralConstructionProject 2.Political, Karimetal.[83] 25risks
5.Environment questioner
3.Design,
Checklist
Brainstorming
OGCProject Notspecified Thuyetetal.[7] 59risks
Literaturereview
Consultingexperts
Informationcollection
1.Political, 5.Technological,
Documentationreview
2.Economic, 6.Security,
GasPipelineConstructionProject MubinandMubin[86] 40risks Assumptionanalysis
3.Organization, 7.NaturalDisaster,
Checklistanalysis
4.Investment, 8.Ecological
Diagrammingtechniques
Documentationreviews
Informationgathering
Checklistanalysis
OGCProject Notspecified El-Shehabyetal.[35] 59risks
Assumptionsanalysis
Diagrammingtechniques
RiskRegister
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3.2. RiskAssessmentRelatedWork
Riskassessmentisdefinedasthe“procedureofprioritizingrisksforfurtheranalysisbyassessing
and combining, generally, their probability of occurrence and impact” [34]. Risk assessment and
analysisaresignificantpartsoftheriskmanagementprocedure. Thereisadirectconnectionbetween
successful risk management and effective risk assessment because the assessment results must be
employedintheriskmanagementplan[68]. Riskassessmentisatechniqueforrecognizingthesources
ofrisk,identifyingprobableriskfactorsandcomputingthepotentialimpactofriskfactorsonproject
success[88,89]. Therefore,employingeffectiveriskassessmenttechniquesinmanagingpotentialrisks
associated with construction variables is very important for the successful delivery of the project
objectives[15].
Oflate,manyriskmanagementtechniqueshavebeenestablishedbasedonlinguisticassessments,
whichiscontrarytonumericalvalues. Thefuzzysetstheory[90]isappropriatefordealingwithdata,
whichareimpreciseandhavelinguistictermssuchasuncertainty,highrisk,orseriousimpact[30].
AsarguedbyNieto-MoroteandRuz-Vila[34], thesaidexpressionsmaynotpresentanymeaning
or context, but the fuzzy sets theory is able to put meaning into them when they are defined by
mathematicallogs.
SeveralstudiesusedMulti-CriteriaDecisionMaking(MCDM)techniquessuchasTOPSIS,AHP,
andANPforriskmanagementassessments. CarrandTah[91]usedafuzzyapproachinaconstruction
projecttoidentifytherelationshipbetweentherisksourceandtheeffectsontheprojectperformance
measures. Theimplementationoffuzzylogichelpedtheriskmanagementbyusinganexpressive
linguisticvariabletodescribetheriskanditsconsequence. Also,aprototyperiskmanagementmodel
wasdevelopedusingfuzzylogictosupporttheriskmanagementframeworkthatwaspresentedby
them. Theresultsshowedthatriskmanagementimprovedtheunderstandingofthoseinvolvedin
theprocess. Furthermore, riskhandlingandprojectperformancewereimproved. Zengetal.[30]
presented a new methodology using fuzzy AHP for risk analysis in construction projects to deal
with associated risks in complicated situations. In addition, an analytical hierarchy process was
modifiedtoprioritizeandstructurethedrivingriskfactors. Theresultsdemonstratedthatthefuzzy
technique is a reasonable application for efficiently and effectively assessing risk in construction
projects.DikmenandBirgonul[92]proposedamethodologyforratingcostoverrunrisksusingafuzzy
riskassessmentforinternationalconstructionprojects. Theirsuggestedmethodologyappliedafuzzy
riskratingmethodwithaneffectivediagrammingprocessforriskidentification. Theeffectivediagram
easilymodeledtheinfluenceriskfactorsandinteractionsamongtheseriskfactors. Nieto-Moroteand
Ruz-Vila[34]proposedamethodologyforriskmanagementinconstructionprojectsbasedonfuzzy
settheoryandtheAHPapproachtomodelalargenumberofrisks. Additionally,theydevelopeda
hierarchicalweightingmethodtoassesstheweightofrisksusingpairwisecomparisonsforthesakeof
handlingproblemswithalargenumberofrisksinthemethodology. KuoandLu[32]assessedrisks
forametropolitanconstructionprojectbyemployingtheFuzzyMultipleCriteriaDecisionMaking
(FMCDM)approach. TheyemployedConsistentFuzzyPreferenceRelations(CFPR)toinvestigateand
measuretherelativeimpactofriskgroupsandrelatedriskfactorsonprojectperformance. Moreover,
theCFPRwereusedtoanalyzetheprobabilityofoccurrenceandevaluatethelevelofriskfortheoverall
project. Taylanetal.[19]employedtheintegrationoffuzzyTOPSISandfuzzyAHPmethodology,
which is called a hybrid application. They used hybrid fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy AHP model for
assessingthewholerisksofconstructionprojects, whicharevague, impreciseanduncertain. The
fuzzyTOPSISmethodwasusedforgroupdecisionmaking,andfuzzyTOPSISwasappliedtoassess
theweightoffuzzylinguisticvariablesforalltheconstructionprojectriskfactors.
AydoganandKoksal[87]prioritizedtherisksofinternationalconstructionprojectsusingthe
analyticalnetworkprocess(ANP).TheANPwasselectedbecausetheyrecognizeditwasthemost
appropriatetoolinconstructingtheframeworkofinternationalconstructionriskfactorsandanalyzing
theprioritiesoftheseriskfactorsonpartnerselectionbecauseitallowedinterdependentrelationships
inamulti-criteriadecisionmodel. Chemwenoetal.[93]proposedanewmethodologyforchoosing
Sustainability2017,9,1420 10of24
thesuitableriskassessmentmethodforthemaintenancedecision-makingfield. Theyintegratedthe
analytical network process into the methodology for prioritizing and accounting for the opinions
andjudgmentsofindustrialandacademicexperts. FazliandMavi[37]proposedadecisionnetwork
framework for risk assessment in crude oil supply chains that incorporated DEMATEL and ANP.
DEMATELanalyzedtheinterdependencyamongtheriskfactorsandANPrankedtheriskfactorsand
evaluatedtheimportanceofeachriskfactor.
Therecentstudiescarriedoutonoilandgasprojectsdonotcoverallthekeywordsofthisstudy
suchasriskassessment,oilandgas,constructionprojectswithinaunitstudy. Forexample,thestudy
byWood[94]focusedonlyonunderstandingofprojectperformanceforoilandgasindustryespecially
forthoseprojectsassociatedwithmajortime-cost-qualityuncertainties. Thisstudydidnotconsider
identificationofriskswithintheprojectsandtheireffectsonprojectobjectivessuchastime-cost-quality.
AstudybyMeidellandKaarbøe[95]aboutenterpriseriskmanagement(ERM)withinanoilandgas
companysetting,focusedontheinfluenceofERMondecisionmakinginanorganization.Inthatstudy,
therisksassociatedwithconstructionprojectshadnotbeenconsidered. Also,theotherstudiesthat
haveconcentratedonOGCprojects,suchasthatbySalazar-Aramayoetal.[96],havenotintroduced
risksorproposedriskassessmentmethodologytoevaluatetheoverallrisksinOGCprojects.
According to the existing literature review and to the authors’ best knowledge, despite the
numerousstudiesrelatedtoriskassessmentwiththeapplicationofMulti-CriteriaDecisionMaking
(MCDM)techniquessuchasfuzzyAHP,fuzzyTOPSISandfuzzyANP,asynthesizedriskassessment
using DEMATEL-ANP has not yet been established in construction projects. While a few studies
have been carried out in the field of construction projects with the same methods, those studies
werenotwithinthescopeofriskassessment. Therefore,theaimofthisstudywastouseahybrid
tool process while incorporating both the DEMATEL and ANP techniques to achieve a novel risk
assessmentmethodologyintheareaofconstructionprojects. DEMATELwasappliedtoexposethe
relationshipbetweenthedimensionsandvariablesaswellastodiscovertheinterdependencyand
feedbackbetweenthem. Inthisstudy,dimensionwassourceofrisks(riskgroup)andvariableswere
risk factors. Conversely, ANP was used to determine the dependency and feedback between the
variablesinadditiontodecidingtheweightofthedimensionandvariables.
3.3. DEMATEL
TheDEMATELmethodwascreatedbytheGenevaResearchCenterbasedonexpertknowledge
to analyze various factors that affect a system and expose both strength and influence among the
factorsinadditiontoconvertingthemintoastructuralmodel[97]. Thisiscrucialasitisimportantand
helpfultounderstandbetterandsolvethecause-and-effectrelationshipbetweenthefactors[38,98].
AccordingtoUygunetal.[39],theDEMATELconceptisadaptedindifferentacademicfields,andit
hasbeenprovenasaneffectivetooltosolvedifficultandcomplicatedproblems.
ThesixproceduresthatareinvolvedintheDEMATELmethodologyaredescribedasthefollowing.
Step1: Calculatingtheaveragedirect-relationmatrix. Firstly,anumberofexpertsarerequested
toformpairwisecomparisonsaccordingtothedirectinfluencebetweenthecriteria. Aninfluence
scaleof0(noinfluence),1(lowinfluence),2(mediuminfluence),3(highinfluence),and4(veryhigh
influence)isusedforcomparison. IfthereareKrespondentexpertswithnfactors,theresultsformed
foreachexpertindirectrelationofan×nmatrix,whichdonatedboth xk andij,istheinfluential
ij
levelofcriterionitocriterion j. ThemaindiagonalofthematrixiszerobecauseinDEMATEL,the
self-influenceofcriteriaisnotassessed.
 
0 x ··· x
12 1n
 x 0 ··· x 
 21 2n 
X =  ... ... ... ... 
 
x x ··· 0
1n n2