Table Of ContentLEVEL> ff .4
(EC
__~~~IA 159F-1,
___ .___
PEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FALLOUT]
S(DELFIC.,
oP REDICTION SYSTEM.
00 Volume I - Fundamentals.
Atmospheric Science Associates
C P.O. Box 307
Bedford, Massachusetts 01730
131 Dec79.
("Final epi-t 16 Jani -31 Decin7
/
........ . CONTRACT No" DN 1 -76=C= 1,
/ ./.... .
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE;
DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED.
T'JS WORK SPONSORED BY THE DEFENSE NUCLEAR AGENCY
UNDER RDT&E RMSS CODE B3325027646V96QAXX01 102 H2590D.
DTIC
(cid:127);. 17.) 1 i{1(cid:127)ELECT
' Prepared for " JAUG 2 ? 1980
Director
DEFENSE NUCLEAR AGENCY B
Wai'hington, D. C. 20305
808 1O8x
Destroy this report when it is no longer
needed. Do not return to sender.
PLEASE NOTIFY THE DEFENSE NUCLEAR AGENCY,
ATTN: TISI, WASHINGTON, D.C. 20305, IF
YOUR ADDRESS IS INCORRECT, IF YOU WISH TO
BE DELETED FROM THE DISTRIBUTION LIST, OR
IF THE ADDRESSEE IS NO LONGER EMPLOYED BY
YOUR ORGANIZATION.
......
Si.
UNCLASSIFIED
SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Data Entered).
SREDPOCOURMTE NTATION PAGE READ INSTRUCTIONS
I REPORT DOCUMENTATION BEFORE COMPLETING FORM
-1 REPORT NUMBER 2, GOVT ACCESSION NO, 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG NUMBER
5159F-1
.DNA
Ilt TITLE (and Subtitle) 5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED
DELFIC: DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FALLOUT Final Report for Period
PREDICTION SYSTEM 16 Jan 79-31 Dec 79
Vol ume I-Fundamentals
6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER
7. AUTHOR(e, 8, CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(s)
li-ilyer G. Norment DNA 001-76-C-0010 /
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT, TASK
Atmospheric Science Associates AREAVW ORK UNIT NUMBERS
P.O. Box 307 Subtask V99QAXNAO11-02
Bedford, Massachusetts 01730
11, CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS Q2. REPORT DA',"E
Director 31 December 1979
Defense Nuclear Agency
13, NUMBER OF PAGES
Washington, D.C. 20305 100
14. MONITORING AGENCY NAME & ADDRESS(Il different from Controlling Office) 15, SECURITY CLASS (of this report)
UNCLASSIFIED
15a, DECL ASSI FICATION/DOWNGRADING
SCHEDULE
16. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of this Report)
Approved for public relaase; distribution unlimited.
17, OISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of the abelrar, entered In Block 20, it different from Report)
I,, SUPPI. AENTARY NOTES
This work sponsored by the Defense Nuclear Agency under RDT&E RMSS Code
B325076464 V99QAXNA01102 H2590D.
19. KEY Wr"(cid:127)DS (Continue on reverse side If neceesary and Identify by block number)
Nuclear Fallout Fallout Prediction
Nuclear Weapons Effects DELFIC
Fallout Modeling
20, ABSTRACT (Continue an reverse side It nece ary and Identify by block number)
DELFIC predicts local fallout from nuclear weapon explosions in the yield
range from 0.001 to 100,000 KT over a range of heights of burst from shallow
subsurface to fallout-safe airbursts. The code is designed for research use
and to serve as a comparison standard for production-oriented codes.
Physical and mathematical bases of the code and validation results are
presented.
DD 1473 UNCLASSIFIED
JA.M EDITION OF I NOV68 IS OBSOLETE
SFCURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Waner Date Entered)
UNCLASSIFIED
SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE(Whon Data Entered)
"UNCLASSIFIED
SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE(When Date Entered)
~.
S.. , ... . ,, (cid:127) . . . . . . (cid:127)' n'' (cid:127)1-'' (cid:127) ' (cid:127), (cid:127)
SUMMARY
DELFIC development began about fourteen years ago uider Def,.nse
Atomic Support Agency sponsorship as a joint effort of the Army Nuclear
Defense Laboratory, Naval Radiological Defense Laboratory and Technical
Operations, Inc. Contributions from these organizations were patclied to-
gether to form the initial version of the code. While it was functional,
there was little consistency in structure and nomenclature between its
various parts, Since then there have been trany additions and deletiv ns
to the code, and the documentation, originally in seven volumes, 1-7 has
been revised and incremented accordingly. 8' 13 Thus, what began as a
voluminously documented hodgepodge has become even more so in some respects.
To make DELFIC more useful to others, we have performed a thorough
reorganization and clean-up of the code and documentation. Features of
questionable value, or which simply have not been used, have been stripped
away. A great amount of consolidation and reprogramming has been done.
Consistency in code structure, data specification and nomenclature between
modules has been improved. Perhaps most important, the documentation has
been reduced to two volumes.
SCCESSION for
NTIS Whi,. Section
DDC Biff Sectio, (3
UNANNOWL9 1
JUSTIFICATION
DI(cid:127)IJBUTJ0/NYAVA!AMLITy CUBES
Dist. AVA;Lm.. id/o SpFr, I
DI',i JUf'M,1UY'QE
PREFACE
The author gratefully acknowledges the
support and cooperation of Dr. David L. Auton
of the Defense Nuclear Agency.
2#
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Sect ion Pg
SUMMARY- -- -- ---- ---------- --------- - ------ --- -----1
PREFACE- -- ------------- -- --------- --------------- ---- 2
1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW -- --- ------------------ - -- ---- 7
2. INITIALIZATION AND CLOUD RISE -- ------ ----- ----------- ---- 9
2.1 INITIALIZATION -- ------ ----- ------- ----------------9
2.1.1 Time, Temperature and Mass of Fallout- -- ------9
2.1.2 Soil Solidification Temperature- -- ---- ------11
2.1.3 Mass and Geometry of the Cloud -- -- --------- --1-2
2.1.4 Altitude and Speed -- -- ------ --- ----- ------14
2.1.5 Atmospheric Conditions -- -- ---- --- --- ------15
2.1.6 Particle Size Distribution- -- -- ---------- --15
Lognormal Distribution- -- -- ---------- ------
Power Law Distribution -- -- ---- --- --- ------17
Tabular Distribution -- -- ------ --- ----- ----18
Size-Activity Distribution- -- -- ---------- --18
2.2 CLOUD RISE- -- ---------- ----------------- ---------19
2.2.1 Background -- -- ------ --- ----- ---------- --19
2.2.2 Differential Equations- -- -- ---------- ------19
Momentum -- -- ------ --- ----- --- ----- ------19
Center Height -- -- ----- ----- --- ----- ------20
-- -------- -------- --- --------- 20
4Temperature-
Turbulent Kinetic Energy Density -- -- ---- ----21
Mass - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 22
Soil Mass Mixin~g Ratio -- -- ---- --- -- -------23
Water Vapor Mixing Ratio- -- -- ---------- ----23
Condensed Water Mixing Ratio -- -- ------ ------24
2.2.3 Particle SettlIing- -- --------- -- ----- ------24
2.2.4 Cloud Shape and Vol ume -- -- ---- --- --- ------26
f
3
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
Section Page
2.2.5 Effect of Wind Shear ----------- --------- 26
2.2.6 Termination of Cloud Rise and Expansion - - 26
2.3 DEFINITION OF THE PARTICLE CLOUD ----- ------ ---- 27
3. ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT ----- ------ ------- ------- ---- 31
3.1 GENERAL DISCUSSION ----- -------- ----- ------- -- 31
3.2 ADVECTION ----------- -------- ------- ----- ---- 32
3.2.1 Layer-By-Layer Transport ----------- ----- 32
3.2.2 Quick Transport ----- -------- ------- ---- 33
3.3 TURBULENT DISPERSION ----- ------ ------- -------- 34
3.4 DEPOSIT INCREMENT DESCRIPTION ----------- ------- 37
3.5 WINDFIELD DESCRIPTION ----------- -------- ------ 40
3.5.1 Single Profile Windfields ----- -------- -- 40
3.5.2 Multiple Profile Windfields -.-- ------- 40
4. ACTIVITY CALCULATION ----------- ----- ------- ------- 42
4.1 GENERAL DISCUSSION ----- ------- ----- ----------- 42
4.2 RIGOROUS ACTIVITY CALCULATION ----------- ------- 43
4.2.1 Nuclide Abundances ----------- ------- --- 44
Fission Products ----------- -------- ---- 44
Induced Activity in Soil ------ -------- -- 45
Induced Activity in Device Materials ------ 45
4.2.2 Activity Versus Particle Size ----- ------- 47
4.3 APPROXIMATE ACTIVITY CALCULATION -------- ------- 52
4.4 HEIGHT-OF-BURST EFFECT ----- ----- ------- ------- 52
5. MAP PREPPATION ----- ----- ------- ------- ------- --- 54
5.1 GENERAL DISCUSSION ----- ------- ------- --------- 54
5.2 DEPOSIT INCREMENT PROCESSING ------------ ------- 54
6. VALIDATION ------ ------ ------- ------- ------- ------ 60
6.1 DISCUSSION ----- -------- ------- ----- ---------- 60
6.2 OBSERVED AND PREDICTED FALLOUT PATTERNS ........- 64
4
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
Section Page
REFERENCES ------- --- ----- --- ----- --- ----- ----- --- ----- 74
,A,(cid:127) PPENDIX A THE LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION-77
FUNDAMENTALS ----------- -------- ---- --------- 77
APPLICATION TO PARTICLE DISTRIBUTIONS ---------- 79
DISTRIBUTION HISTOGRAM ----------- ------ ------ 82
APPENDIX B POWER LAW PARTICLE SIZE DISTRIBUTION ----------- 85
DATA ANALYSIS ---------- -------- ------- ------ 85
DISTRIBUTION HISTOGRAM ----------- ------ ------ 85
APPENDIX C FALLOUT PATTERN COMPARISON BY THE FIGURE-OF-MERIT
METHOD ----------- ------- ----- ------- ------- 87
APFENDIX D GLOSSARY OF SYMBOLS ---------- -------- -------- 89
¾.:
g5
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Figure qe
1. Subdivision of an initial cloud cylinder into four
parcels, KDI = 4.- -- -- -- ---- ----- ----- --- ---------- 28
2. Illustration of the synthesis of a deposit increment
from the standard deviation ellipses of the top and
base of a parcel of fallout.-- -- -- --- --- ----- -------- 38
3. Relationship of equivalent fissions to particle size. 50
--
4. A deposit increment concentration ellipse in the x,y
plane.-- -- -- --- --- ----- --- ----- ----- --- ---------- 57
A.1 Cumulative frequency graph of lognormally distributed
particles.- -- -- -- ----- ----- --- ----- --- ----- ------77
LIST OF TABLE'S
Table Page
1 MAP REQUEST OPTIONS- -- -- ------ ----- --- ----- -------- 55
2 TEST SHOT DATA- -- ---- --- ----- ----- --- ----- -------- 60
3 COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED FALLOUT PATTERN
STATISTICS- -- ------- -- --- --- ----- ----- --- -------- 61
6
