Conservative Parties and the Birth of Democracy

450 Pages·2017·3.64 MB·English

by  Ziblatt

ConservativePartiesandtheBirthofDemocracy
How do democracies form and what makes them die? Daniel Ziblatt
revisits this timely and classic question in a wide-ranging historical
narrative that traces the evolution of modern political democracy in
Europe from its modest beginnings in 1830s Britain to Adolf Hitler’s
1933seizureofpowerinWeimarGermany.Basedonrichhistoricaland
quantitative evidence, the book offers a major reinterpretation of
European history and the question of how stable political democracy
isachieved.Thebarrierstoinclusivepoliticalrule,Ziblatt finds,were
notinevitablyovercomebyunstoppabletidesofsocioeconomicchange,
a simpletriumph ofa growing middleclass,or even byworkingclass
collectiveaction.Instead,politicaldemocracy’sfatesurprisinglyhinged
on how conservative political parties – the historical defenders of
power, wealth, and privilege – recast themselves and coped with the
riseoftheirownradicalright.Withstrikingmodernparallels,thebook
hasvitalimplicationsfortoday’snewandolddemocraciesundersiege.
DanielZiblattisProfessorofGovernmentatHarvardUniversitywhere
he is also a resident fellow of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for
EuropeanStudies.HeisalsocurrentlyFernandBraudelSeniorFellow
at the European University Institute. His first book, Structuring the
State: The Formation of Italy and Germany and the Puzzle of
Federalism (2006) received several prizes from the American Political
Science Association. He has written extensively on the emergence of
democracyinEuropeanpoliticalhistory,publishinginjournalssuchas
AmericanPoliticalScienceReview,JournalofEconomicHistory,and
WorldPolitics.Ziblatthasheldvisitingfellowshipsandprofessorships
atSciencesPo(Paris),theMaxPlanckInstitutefortheStudyofSocieties
(Cologne, Germany), Stanford University, the Radcliffe Institute
(Harvard),andtheCenterforAdvancedStudies(Munich,Germany).
CambridgeStudiesinComparativePolitics
GeneralEditor
MargaretLeviUniversityofWashington,Seattle
AssistantGeneralEditors
KathleenThelenMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology
ErikWibbelsDukeUniversity
AssociateEditors
RobertH.BatesHarvardUniversity
StephenHansonUniversityofWashington,Seattle
TorbenIversenHarvardUniversity
StathisKalyvasYaleUniversity
PeterLangeDukeUniversity
HelenMilnerPrincetonUniversity
FrancesRosenbluthYaleUniversity
SusanStokesYaleUniversity
SidneyTarrowCornellUniversity
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MichaelAlbertus,AutocracyandRedistribution:ThePoliticsofLandReform
BenW.Ansell,FromtheBallottotheBlackboard:TheRedistributivePolitical
EconomyofEducation
BenW.AnsellandDavidJ.Samuels,InequalityandDemocratization:AnElite
CompetitionApproach
LeonardoR.Arriola,MultiEthnicCoalitionsinAfrica:BusinessFinancing
ofOppositionElectionCampaigns
DavidAustenSmith,JeffryA.Frieden,MiriamA.Golden,KarlOveMoene,and
AdamPrzeworski,eds.,SelectedWorksofMichaelWallerstein:ThePolitical
EconomyofInequality,Unions,andSocialDemocracy
AndyBaker,TheMarketandtheMassesinLatinAmerica:PolicyReform
andConsumptioninLiberalizingEconomies
Continuedaftertheindex
Conservative Parties and the
Birth of Democracy
DANIEL ZIBLATT
HarvardUniversity
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www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107001626
doi:10.1017/9781139030335
©DanielZiblatt2017
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Firstpublished2017
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabySheridanBooks,Inc.
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names:Ziblatt,Daniel,1972 author.
title:Conservativepartiesandthebirthofdemocracy/DanielZiblatt.
description:NewYork,NY:CambridgeUniversityPress,2017.|Series:Cambridgestudies
incomparativepolitics
identifiers:lccn2016056471|isbn9781107001626(hardback)
subjects:lcsh:Politicalparties Europe.|Conservatism Europe.|Democracy Europe.|
Europe Politicsandgovernment.|BISAC:POLITICALSCIENCE/General.
classification:lccjn94.a979z542017|ddc320.94 dc23
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Contents
ListofFigures pagevi
ListofTables viii
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
1 TwoPatternsofDemocratization 1
2 TheOldRegimeandtheConservativeDilemma 24
3 From1688toMassPolitics:BritishDemocratization 54
4 AVirtuousCycle?ConservativeStrengthandBritain’sSettledPath,
1884–1906 109
5 AvertingaDemocraticDisasterinBritain,1906–1922 139
6 WeakPartyConservatismandtheCaseofGermany 172
7 StalledDemocratizationinGermanyBefore1914 215
8 TheUnsettledPath:ConservativeWeaknessinWeimarGermany,
1918–1928 259
9 ADeluge:ConservativeWeaknessandDemocraticBreakdownin
Germany 297
10 HowCountriesDemocratize:EuropeandBeyond 334
11 Conclusion 363
AppendixA TheProfessionalizationofPoliticalPartyOrganization
inBritain,1894 369
AppendixB RegressionResultsforFigure6.3 371
AppendixC PartiesoftheElectoralRightbyCountry,1918–1939 373
Bibliography 375
Index 411
v
Figures
1.1 TwoParadigmaticCases(ItalyandGreatBritain):Unsettledvs.
SettledTrajectoriesofDemocratizationinEurope,1848–1950 page12
1.2 DemocraticVolatilityinEurope,1848–1950(RatioofLength
ofPathfromPolityScorein1848to1950/LengthofShortest
PossibleLine) 15
3.1 PlotofMeanandVolatilityofYieldson3PercentConsolbyYear 59
3.2 SemiparametricEstimateofChangeinYieldaroundPassage
ofReform 60
3.3 PrimroseLeagueOrganizationalGrowthvs.LadyGrand
Council(LGC)OrganizationalGrowth,1885–1893 97
3.4 PrimroseMembershipRatesinBritishCounties,1888 101
3.5 DensityofAnglicanPriestsandPrimroseLeagueMembership,
1886–1888 102
4.1 ConservativePartyVoteShareandSeatShare,1865–1900 118
4.2 ActualConservativeVoteShareandPredictedVoteShare
(withandwithoutPrimroseLeagueMembership,1885–1906) 130
4.3 PercentageofConservativePartyCandidateElectionSpeeches
in1895and1900ThatRefertoTwoClustersofThemes 132
5.1 3PercentConsolYieldRatesandUlsterPoliticalCrisisEvents,
1911–1914 156
5.2 By-ElectionsandtheConservativeParty’sGrowingElectoral
Advantage,1910–1914 160
5.3 ConservativePartyCampaignFlyer,Horncastle,February1911 162
5.4 LegacyofConservativePartyStrengthand1922CarltonClubVote 167
5.5 Three-CorneredRacesvs.Two-CorneredRacesandConservative
PartyElectionVictories,1918–1930 168
6.1 TotalNumberofDisputedElectionsinGermany,1871–1914 182
6.2 NumberofDisputedElectionsinImperialGermany,perYear,
1871–1912 183
vi
ListofFigures vii
6.3 PredictedProbabilitiesofIncidenceofElectoralFraud(Based
onModel1) 184
6.4 ConservativePartyCandidates,ContestedandUncontestedby
Right-WingInterestGroups,1890–1912 204
7.1 AnnualNumberofStrikingWorkersPerCapita,1899–1912 228
7.2 NationalReichstagVoteShareofSPDandOtherParties,
1890–1912 230
7.3 SeatSharebyEachPartyinPrussianState
ElectionsandFederalReichstagElections,1908/1912 241
7.4 GeographicConcentration(Gini-Coefficient)ofConservative
PartyVoteShare,NationalParliamentaryElections,1881–1903 245
7.5 MedianandDistributionofConservativeandLiberalPartySeats
AcrossVaryingLevelsofAgriculturalDistrictsinGermanyand
BritaininYearsofSuffrageReform(1910and1885) 245
7.6 ElectoralSupportforSPD,byGermanStateinReichstagElections 255
7.7 IncidenceofAnnualStrikesinGermanStates,1899–1909
(perMillionResidents) 256
8.1 DNVPSeatsandVoteShareacrossWeimar’sThreePeriods,
1919–1932 274
8.2 OrganizationalandVotingCohesionoftheDNVPandOther
PoliticalPartiesinWeimarGermany,1920–1932 284
Tables
2.1 TimingofPre-DemocraticInstitutionalReformsinEurope,
1832–1919 page27
2.2 ConservativePoliticalPartiesinEuropebefore1914 32
2.3 TwoConservativePartyStrategicResponsestoPre-Democratic
ElectoralCompetition,circa1890s 37
2.4 OrganizationalFormsofNineteenth-CenturyEuropeanConservative
PoliticalParties 38
3.1 ComparisonofConsolYieldVolatilitywithinBritain 61
3.2 ComparisonofBondYieldVolatilityacrossCountryEpisodes 63
3.3 LocationofNationalUnionConventionandNumberofDelegates,
1867–1875 77
3.4 DifferenceinTurnoutRatesinConservativePartyOrganizedand
UnorganizedCountiesandBorough,1867–1880 79
3.5 EffectofElectoralMobilizationonElectionTurnout,1867–1880 81
3.6 PrimroseLeague:OfficialMembershipTotals,1884–1901 95
3.7 OLSAnalysisofPrimroseMembershipDensity,1888 104
4.1 OLSAnalysisResults,AverageConservativePartyVoteShare,
1885–1906 127
5.1 MembersofParliament,ElectedinBritishGeneralElections,1900
and1906 141
6.1 ATypologyofParty-InterestGroupRelations,withIllustrations 190
6.2 OLSAnalysisofConservativeAssociationOrganizationDensity,
1848 214
7.1 ParliamentaryVoteonPrussia’sMay1912Legislationon
ReformingtheSuffrage 216
7.2 GermanStates:SuffrageRegimes,1913 221
7.3 ProbitandOrderedProbitAnalysesofRollCallVoteonPrussian
SuffrageReform(March1910andMay1912) 240
viii
ListofTables ix
8.1 WeimarCoalitionVoteShare,1919and1920Federal
ParliamentaryElections 267
9.1 ReichstagElectionResults,September1930 324
9.2 Percentageof1928VotersofEachPartyThatCastTheirBallots
fortheNaziParty(NSDAP)in1930 327
10.1 FragmentationoftheRightinInterwarEuropeandDemocratic
Breakdown 337