Climate change modeling, mitigation, and adaptation

727 Pages·2013·16.82 MB·English

by  Edited by Rao Y. Surampalli

Climate Change Modeling,
Mitigation, and Adaptation

EDITED BY

Rao Y. Surampalli
Tian C. Zhang
C. S. P. Ojha
B. Gurjar
R. D. Tyagi
C. M. Kao

SPONSORED BY

Environmental Council
Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI)
of the American Society of Civil Engineers

Published by the American Society of Civil Engineers
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Contents

Preface ......................................................................................................................... xi
About the Editors ....................................................................................................... xiii
Contributors .............................................................................................................. xvii

Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................................ 1

Part 1 Basic Science and Vulnerability Assessment .................... 9

Chapter 2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change:
An Overview ...................................................................................... 10
2.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 10
2.2 Trends of GHG Emissions (Change in Climatic Parameters) ...... 13
2.3 Impacts of Climate Change at Different Scales ............................ 15
2.4 GHGs Emission Reduction and Climate Change Mitigation ....... 17
2.5 Socio-economic and Political Implications .................................. 20
2.6 References ..................................................................................... 22

Chapter 3 Greenhouse Gas Contribution on Climate Change ....................... 26
3.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 26
3.2 Greenhouse Gases ......................................................................... 27
3.3 Current Scenario of Greenhouse Gases ........................................ 31
3.4 Factors Responsible for Increasing Concentrations of Greenhouse
Gases/Global Warming ........................................................... 32
3.5 Causes of Climate Changes .......................................................... 35
3.6 Effect of Greenhouse Gases on Climate ....................................... 40
3.7 Impact of Climate Change ............................................................ 44
3.8 Government Initiatives on Climate Change.................................. 49
3.9 Challenge of Limiting Global Warming to 2oC ............................ 52
3.10 Conclusion and Future Outlook .................................................. 53
3.11 Acknowledgements ..................................................................... 53
3.12 Abbreviations .............................................................................. 54
3.13 References ................................................................................... 54

Chapter 4 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Different Sources ...................... 62
4.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 62
4.2 Overview of Sector Emissions and Trends ................................... 64
4.3 Indirect GHGs ............................................................................... 78
4.4 Summary ....................................................................................... 83
4.5 References ..................................................................................... 85

iii
iv CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION
Chapter 5 Impact of GHG Emissions and Climate Change ........................... 92
5.1 Introduction ................................................................................... 92
5.2 Major Impacts ............................................................................... 93
5.3 Summary and Future Perspectives ............................................. 104
5.4 References ................................................................................... 105

Chapter 6 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) and Economics
of Stabilisation ................................................................................. 109
6.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 109
6.2 GHG Effect and Climate Change .............................................. 112
6.3 Emissions/Concentrations of GHGs and Economics of
Stabilisation ................................................................................ 119
6.4 Global Strategies and Practical Implications of Global Strategies
with Kyoto Protocol .................................................................... 136
6.5 Post Kyoto and Future Policies ................................................... 147
6.6 Conclusions ................................................................................. 152
6.7 References ................................................................................... 154

Chapter 7 Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change on
Human Development: Perspectives on Measurement ................. 160
7.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 160
7.2 Global Concerns and Initiatives for Dealing with the Impact of
Climate Change........................................................................... 161
7.3 Overview of the Issues and Problems for Developing Countries 165
7.4 Proposing a Framework for Measuring Vulnerability,
Adaptation, and Mitigation Capacity .......................................... 169
7.5 References .................................................................................. 174

Part 2 Modeling and Predicting ................................................. 177

Chapter 8 Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change: Quantification of
Uncertainties ................................................................................... 178
8.1 Background: Climate Change Impact Assessment ..................... 178
8.2 Downscaling for Hydrologic Needs ........................................... 179
8.3 Uncertainty Quantification Methods .......................................... 182
8.4 GCM and Scenario Uncertainty Modeling ................................. 186
8.5 Uncertainty Combination: GCM, Scenario, and Downscaling
Uncertainty.................................................................................. 195
8.6 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................... 210
8.7 References ................................................................................... 212

Chapter 9 Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation and Temperature
for a Lake Basin .............................................................................. 219
9.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 219
9.2 Statistical Downscaling ......................................................... 220
9.3 Statistical Downscaling Techniques ........................................... 221
CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION v
9.4 Study Region and Data Extraction .............................................. 224
9.5 Evaluation of Linear Regression Methods.................................. 233
9.6 Evaluation of Artificial Neural Network Methods ..................... 240
9.7 Conclusion ................................................................................. 248
9.8 References ................................................................................... 248

Chapter 10 Essence of Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes .................. 251
10.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 251
10.2 Climate Change and Occurrence of Extreme Events ............... 252
10.3 Changes in Earth’s Climate and Expected Changes in Extreme
Events....................................................................................... 256
10.4 Evidences of Increase in Extreme Events ................................ 257
10.5 Flood Frequency Estimation and Impact of Climate Change .. 259
10.6 Impact of Climate Change on Floods of Various Return
Periods—A Case Study ........................................................... 268
10.7 Impact of Climate Change on Probable Maximum Flood—
A Case Study ........................................................................... 271
10.8 Climate and Drought ................................................................ 277
10.9 Summary and Conclusions ...................................................... 293
10.10 References ............................................................................... 294

Chapter 11 Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Systems and
Implications for Decision-Makers ................................................. 299
11.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 299
11.2 Limits of Predictability of Climate .......................................... 300
11.3 Complexity of Climate Modeling for Impacts Assessment ..... 300
11.4 Decision-making under Climate Change Uncertainty ............. 302
11.5 Case Study 1: Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Yield in
Yorkshire, UK .......................................................................... 304
11.6 Case Study 2: Climate Change Impact on Blue Nile Flow ...... 314
11.7 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 324
11.8 References ................................................................................ 324

Chapter 12 Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorological Variables
in a River Basin in India for IPCC SRES Scenarios ................... 327
12.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 327
12.2 Background .............................................................................. 328
12.3 Study Region and Data Used ................................................... 334
12.4 Methodology ............................................................................ 335
12.5 Results ...................................................................................... 340
12.6 Conclusions .............................................................................. 352
12.7 References ............................................................................... 353
vi CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION
Chapter 13 A New Framework for Modeling Future Hydrologic Extremes:
Nested Bias Correction as a Precursor to Stochastic Rainfall
Downscaling ..................................................................................... 357
13.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 357
13.2 Uncertainty in GCM Rainfall .................................................. 359
13.3 Nested Bias Correction (NBC) ................................................ 361
13.4 Modified Markov Stochastic Downscaling Model (MMM) ... 368
13.5 Conclusions .............................................................................. 383
13.6 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 383
13.7 References ................................................................................ 383

Chapter 14 Statistical Analysis of Hydro-Climatic Variables ........................ 387
14.1 Statistical Methods of Short- and Long-term Dependence ...... 387
14.2 Statistical Methods of Trend Analysis ..................................... 395
14.3 Statistical Methods of Periodicity ............................................ 398
14.4 Application of Methodology .................................................... 401
14.5 Conclusions .............................................................................. 414
14.6 References ................................................................................ 415

Chapter 15 Climate Change and Its Impact on Indian Agriculture .............. 419
15.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 419
15.2 Trends in Key Weather Parameters ......................................... 419
15.3 Role of Greenhouse Gases ....................................................... 422
15.4 Emission of GHG’s from Indian Agriculture .......................... 423
15.5 Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture ............................... 426
15.6 Impacts of Carbon Fertilization ............................................... 433
15.7 Climate Change Impact on Livestock ...................................... 435
15.8 Climate Change Impact on Poultry .......................................... 437
15.9 Climate Change Impact on Fisheries ....................................... 439
15.10 Impact of Climate Change on Crop Water Requirements
and Water Resources ............................................................ 441
15.11 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies ................................... 444
15.12 Socio Economic and Policy Issues ....................................... 448
15.13 India's National Action Plan on Climate Change ................. 449
15.14 Conclusions ........................................................................... 450
15.15 References ............................................................................. 451

Chapter 16 Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
and Food Production ...................................................................... 454
16.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 454
16.2 Crop Models ............................................................................ 456
16.3 Application of Crop Models .................................................... 459
16.4 Discussion ................................................................................ 465
16.5 References ................................................................................ 465
CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION vii
Chapter 17 Diagnosis of Climate and Weather ................................................ 471
17.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 471
17.2 Methods for Signal Extraction ................................................. 472
17.3 Principle of SOM ..................................................................... 473
17.4 Classification of Synoptic Field Patterns Using SOM............. 474
17.5 Diagnosis of Future Climate Change ....................................... 487
17.6 Summary .................................................................................. 490
17.7 References ................................................................................ 492

Part 3 Reducing and Adapting .................................................. 495

Chapter 18 Adapting to Climate Change: Technologies, Perceptions,
Education, and Perspectives ......................................................... 496
18.1 Techniques for Mitigating Climate .......................................... 499
18.2 People’s Perceptions for Mitigating Climate .......................... 507
18.3 Education, Training, and Outreach ............ ............................. 508
18.4 Challenges and Controversies .................................................. 510
18.5 References ............................................................................... 513

Chapter 19 Enhancing Verdurization for Mitigating Climate Change ......... 519
19.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 519
19.2 Mechanisms of Anthropogenic Climate Change ..................... 520
19.3 Plant Biology and Photosynthesis ........................................... 521
19.4 Impact of Climate Change on Plant Growth and Biodiversity 523
19.5 Impact of Climate Change on Plant Diseases .......................... 525
19.6 Climate Change Mitigation by Forests .................................... 526
19.7 Climate Change Mitigation by Wetland System ..................... 529
19.8 Summary .................................................................................. 532
19.9 References ................................................................................ 532

Chapter 20 Carbon Capture and Storage for Mitigating Climate Changes . 538
20.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 538
20.2 Background .............................................................................. 539
20.3 CCS Technologies ................................................................... 542
20.4 Concerns, Constrains, and Future Perspectives ....................... 561
20.5 Summary .................................................................................. 564
20.6 References ................................................................................ 564

Chapter 21 Estimation and Reduction of GHG Emissions in
Wastewater/Sludge Treatment and Management ....................... 570
21.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 570
21.2 GHG Emissions during Wastewater Treatment....................... 571
21.3 GHG Emissions during Sludge Management .......................... 579
21.4 Key Strategies for Mitigation of GHG Emissions from
Wastewater Treatment/Management ....................................... 587
viii CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION
21.5 Case Study: Assessment of Impacts of Changing Wastewater
Treatment Technologies on GHG Emissions
and Energy Balance ................................................................. 588
21.6 Future Perspectives .................................................................. 590
21.7 Conclusions .............................................................................. 591
21.8 Acknowledgement ................................................................... 591
22.9 References ............................................................................... 592

Chapter 22 Mitigation/Reduction of GHG Emissions in Solid/Hazardous
Wastes Management ....................................................................... 600
22.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 600
22.2 Production and Emission of CH at Land Disposal Sites ........ 602
4
22.3 Control of CH Emissions at Waste Disposal Sites ................. 604
4
22.4 Conclusions .............................................................................. 614
22.5 References ............................................................................... 615

Chapter 23 Recycling for Mitigating Climate Change .................................... 621
23.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 621
23.2 Causes and Impact of Climatic Changes and Its Mitigation
Strategies .................................................................................. 622
23.3 Recycling as Climate Mitigation Strategy ............................... 627
23.4 Conclusion and Future Work ................................................... 635
23.5 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 636
23.6 References ............................................................................... 636

Chapter 24 Green Energy Application for Mitigating Climate Change ....... 639
24.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 639
24.2 Climate Change Mitigation Initiatives ..................................... 641
24.3 Emerging Developments in Renewables ................................. 642
24.4 International Bodies Involved in Promoting Ocean Energy .... 660
24.5 Conclusions .............................................................................. 662
24.6 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 662
24.7 References ................................................................................ 662

Chapter 25 Greenhouse Gases Emissions from Natural Systems:
Mechanisms and Control Strategies ............................................. 667
25.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 667
25.2 GHG Emissions from Wetlands .............................................. 668
25.3 GHG Emissions from Oceans and Freshwaters ....................... 675
25.4 GHG Emissions from Permafrost ............................................ 677
25.5 Geologic GHG Emissions ........................................................ 679
25.6 GHG Emission from Other Natural Systems ........................... 681
25.7 Summary .................................................................................. 685
25.8 Acknowledgements .................................................................. 686
25.9 References ................................................................................ 686
CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION ix
Index ...................................................................................................................... 695