Challenge and Response: Anticipating US Military Security Concerns

470 Pages·2002·2.25 MB·English

by  Karl P. Magyar

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Challenge and response: anticipating US military security concerns

/ Karl P. Magyar, editor-in-chief; associate editors, Maris

McCrabb, Albert Mitchum, Lewis B. Ware.

443p.

Includes bibliographical references.
1. Military planning-United States. 2. National Security-
United States. 3. World politics-1989-I. Magyar. K. P. (Karl P.)
U153.C49 1994
355'.033073-dc20 94-18448
CIP
ISBN: 1-58566-053-1
First Printing August 1994
Second Printing April 1999
Third Printing March 2001
Digitize Copy from Third Printing November 2002
NOTE: Pagination changed
DISCLAIMER
This publication was produced in the Department of Defense
school environment in the interest of academic freedom and the
advancement of national defense-related concepts. The views
expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not
reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense
or the United States government.
This publication has been reviewed by security and policy
review authorities and is cleared for public release.
ii
Contents
Page
DISCLAIMER .................................................................... ii

PREFACE.......................................................................... ix

INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
The Emerging Post-Cold-War International

Order and Changing Conflict Environment.........................3

PART I THE CHALLENGE
Regional Study 1 Conflict and Confrontation in

the Post-Cold-War Middle East........................................43

Regional Study 2 Security Issues in the Former

Warsaw Pact Region..........................................................65

Arms Control and Proliferation .........................................91

The Changing Nature of Alliances ..................................117

The Military's Changing Sociological Concerns .............141

US National Security Strategy.........................................159

Conquest and Cohesion The Psychological

Nature of War ..................................................................195

PART II THE RESPONSE
The Diplomacy of Regional Conflict

Management.....................................................................221

Forecasting Military Technological Needs......................239

Constituting US Military Manpower Needs ....................253

v
Military Responses in Nonpolitical Conflicts..................267

Supporting United Nations and Regional

Peacekeeping Efforts .......................................................293

Parallel Warfare Its Nature and Application....................313

Parallel Warfare Anticipating the Enemy’s

Response..........................................................................335

Air Theory for the Twenty-first Century ........................351

Waging Wars with Nonlethal Weapons..........................377

Economic Warfare Targeting Financial Systems

As Centers of Gravity ......................................................391

Changing Status of Nuclear Forces..................................411

Developing Space Assets.................................................443

Conflict Termination Every War Must End.....................465

CONTRIBUTORS...........................................................483

vi

Preface
The formal dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw
Pact and the coalition war to oust Iraq from Kuwait occurred
within months of each other. These events were of great
significance to Western statesmen and strategic planners who
recognized that a fundamental transformation of the international
system was taking place.
The decline of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact as a
cohesive unit raises the most fundamental question for the military
planner: Who will be the likely enemies in the future for which
they must prepare? This was not a dilemma during the cold war as
all conflicts in the world were evaluated within the prevailing East-
West context. Having assessed the challenges posed by the
enemy's capabilities, military planners worked on the assumption
of the existence of a hierarchy of responses that could be used as
required, with a massive strategic nuclear attack being reserved for
the belligerent members of the Warsaw Pact-if necessary. Such a
response is not envisioned for any conceivable enemy today.
The 1991 Gulf War, however, affirmed very early the
prevalence of war outside the cold war context and that military
responses to future conflicts will have to be formulated in a wide
sub-nuclear range. The United States-led coalition's response to
Iraq's initiatives did just that. New weapon systems, supporting
equipment, strategies, and tactics were implemented in the defeat
of Iraq's armed forces. Influencing the prosecution and
management of that war was the absence of the Soviet Union as a
balancing variable. The lessons learned from that encounter will
certainly influence future engagements-but against whom is not
clear.
The authors of this volume agree on one point: That conflicts
will continue in the future and that the US will perhaps find it in its
interest to become an active participant in some wars. This volume
ix
attempts to bring together thoughts about the environmental
context in which such, wars will take place and about possible US
military reactions.
The Introduction and Overview offers a broad review of the
major determinants of international change. Part I follows with a
current review of two regions, the Middle East and the area
covered by the former Warsaw Pact, whose conflicts have the
greater potential of expansion and negative consequence to the US
and to our traditional allies than those conflicts in any other region.
No attempt is made to systematically review other regions where
conflict is not as globally threatening. This section also offers
insight into other factors that portray the global conflict
environment, war, changing US military concerns and US security
perceptions. Together, these essays address what we perceive as
the “Challenge.”
Part II ranges over some specific security situations, the
changing nature of warfare, and some anticipated avenues of
responding to the emerging challenges, Conflicts and wars may be
resolved by more than only violent means, and these are
considered within the context of diplomatic or collective efforts.
Responses to nonpolitical conflicts those in which the defeat of a
regime or an insurgent force is not an objective-are examined.
Peacekeeping operations, which have recently placed great
demands on the US, are investigated. The new technological
capabilities are reviewed. Air power, parallel warfare, and war
termination theory are presented, And the utility of nuclear forces
as well as space assets are updated. These topics and others address
the “Response,”
The authors of this volume are all affiliated with the US Air
Force Air Command and Staff College at Air University. Maxwell
Air Force Base, Alabama. The book is to comprise one of the texts
for our students, but it is expected that it will generate a wider
interest among military and civilian audiences. The editors have
not imposed methodological restrictions and indeed, we have
x
encouraged a diversity of opinions but within an academic context,
Our own immediate challenge was to produce this wide-ranging
review under great 'time constraints in order to make a very up-to-
date volume available to those contemplating future US military
security concerns. It is important to stress that we all write in our
personal capacities and that no portion of this volume necessarily
reflects the official view of the US Air Force or any US
government agency.
We, the editors, wish to thank the authors for their timely
response to our request for quality work under severe time
constraints. At the Air University Press, we wish to thank Dr
Elizabeth Bradley, director; Ms Debbie Banker; Ms Joan Hickey;
Ms Linda Colson; Mr. Steve Garst; and our editors, Mr. Hugh
Richardson and Dr Glenn Morton, for responding to the challenge
of producing this volume on such notice.
Karl P. Magyar, PhD
xi
INTRODUCTION

AND

OVERVIEW