Campaign Strategy in Direct Democracy

267 Pages·2012·1.436 MB·English

by  Laurent Bernhard (auth.)

ChallengestoDemocracyinthe21stCentury
The series Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century was initiated by the
Swiss National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR) Democracy, an
interdisciplinary research programme launched by the Swiss National Science
Foundation and the University of Zurich in 2005.The programme examines
how globalization and mediatization challenge democracy today (www.nccr-
democracy.uzh.ch).
SeriesEditor:HanspeterKriesi,UniversityofZurich,Switzerland
Democracy faces substantial challenges as we move into the 21st century.
The West faces malaise; multi-level governance structures pose democratic
challenges; and the path of democratization rarely runs smoothly. This series
examines democracy across the full range of these contemporary conditions.
It publishes innovative research on established democracies, democratizing
polities and democracy in multi-level governance structures. The series seeks
to break down artificial divisions between different disciplines, by simultane-
ously drawing on political communication, comparative politics, international
relations,politicaltheory,andpoliticaleconomy.
SeriesEditorialBoard:
MarcBühlmann,UniversityofBerne,Switzerland
ClaesdeVreese,UniversityofAmsterdam,theNetherlands
FrankEsser,UniversityofZurich,Switzerland
HerbertKitschelt,DukeUniversity,USA
SandraLavenex,UniversityofLucerne,Switzerland
JörgMatthes,UniversityofVienna,Austria
GianpietroMazzoleni,UniversityofMilano,Italy
WolfgangMerkel,WZB-Berlin,Germany
Titlesinclude:
LaurentBernhard
CAMPAIGNSTRATEGYINDIRECTDEMOCRACY
HanspeterKriesi
POLITICALCOMMUNICATIONINDIRECTDEMOCRATICCAMPAIGNS
EnlighteningorManipulating?
MaijaSetäläandTheoSchiller(editors)
CITIZEN’SINITIATIVESINEUROPE
ProceduresandConsequencesofAgenda-SettingbyCitizens
ChallengestoDemocracyinthe21stCentury
SeriesStandingOrderISBN978–0–230–30487–1(hardback)
and978–0–230–30488–8(paperback)
(outsideNorthAmericaonly)
You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a
standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to
usattheaddressbelowwithyournameandaddress,thetitleoftheseriesand
theISBNsquotedabove.
Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills,
Basingstoke,HampshireRG216XS,England
Campaign Strategy in
Direct Democracy
Laurent Bernhard
Post-DoctoralResearcher,NCCRDemocracy,UniversityofZurich,Zurich,Switzerland,
andUniversityofBerne,Berne,Switzerland
©LaurentBernhard2012
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2012 978-1-137-01133-6
Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis
publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission.
Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted
savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe
Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence
permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency,
SaffronHouse,6–10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS.
Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication
maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages.
Theauthorhasassertedhisrighttobeidentifiedastheauthorofthiswork
inaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988.
Firstpublished2012by
PALGRAVEMACMILLAN
PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited,
registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke,
HampshireRG216XS.
PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC,
175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010.
PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies
andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld.
Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates,
theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries.
ISBN 978-1-349-43643-9 ISBN 978-1-137-01134-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9781137011343
Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully
managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing
processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe
countryoforigin.
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12
Contents
ListofTablesandFigures vi
ListofAbbreviationsandAcronyms x
1 Introduction 1
2 TheoreticalFramework 18
3 TheStrategicContext 31
4 TheProfilesoftheCampaigns 68
5 CoalitionFormation 102
6 MessageDevelopment 124
7 MessageDelivery 151
8 PowerAnalysis 176
9 Conclusion 199
Appendices 214
Notes 231
References 241
Index 253
v
Tables and Figures
Tables
1.1 Overviewofstudiesaboutdirect-democratic
campaigning 5
1.2 Overviewoftheselectedcampaigns 13
1.3 Thedistributionofselectedactors(inpercentages),by
actortypesandcampaign 16
2.1 Classificationofmessages 25
3.1 Typologyofdirect-democraticinstitutions 33
3.2 Previousvotesinthedomainofimmigration
(1980–2006) 42
3.3 Previousvotesinthedomainofhealthpolitics
(1980–2006) 50
3.4 Previousvotesinthedomainsofwelfarestateissues
andlabourmarketregulation(1980–2006) 56
3.5 Previousvotesinthedomainofeconomic
liberalizations(1980–2006) 62
4.1 Usedresources,bycampandcampaign 97
4.2 Supportfortheballotpropositionatthreestages 99
5.1 Coalitiontypes,basedonsharedbeliefs 109
5.2 Thecomponentcoalitionsatthelevelofthe
4-blocks-solutions,bycampaign 115
6.1 Expectedmainmessage,bycampaignandcoalition 131
6.2 Messageselectionintheasylumcampaign,bycamp
andblock 137
6.3 Messageselectioninthenaturalizationcampaign,by
campandblock 138
6.4 Messageselectioninthehealthcarearticlecampaign,by
campandblock 139
6.5 Messageselectioninthesinglehealthinsurance
campaign,bycampandblock 141
6.6 Messageselectioninthedisabledinsurancecampaign,
bycampandblock 142
6.7 Messageselectioninthepensioncampaign,bycamp
andblock 143
vi
ListofTablesandFigures vii
6.8 Messageselectioninthecorporatetaxcampaign,by
campandblock 144
6.9 Messageselectionintherighttosuecampaign,bycamp
andblock 145
6.10 Campaigntone,bycampandcampaign 146
6.11 Orderedprobitmodelsexplainingtheextentofnegative
campaigning,bycampaign 148
7.1 Thecontextualconditionsofcantonaltargeting
strategiesintheeightselectedcampaigns 156
7.2 Cantonaltargetingplaninthecampaignonpensions 157
7.3 Theuseofcommunicationactivities,bycommunication
channelandcampaign 159
7.4 Theproportionofinterviewedorganizationsthatreport
tofocusonagivenconstituency,bycampaffiliation
andcampaign,inpercentages 162
7.5 Probitregressionmodelsexplainingthetargetingof
swingvoters,bycampaign 163
7.6 Orderedprobitregressionmodelsexplainingtheuseof
thedirectmediachannel,bycampaign 167
7.7 Orderedprobitregressionmodelsexplainingtheuseof
theindirectmediachannel,bycampaign 168
7.8 Orderedprobitregressionmodelsexplainingtheuseof
thedirectorganizationalchannel,bycampaign 169
7.9 Orderedprobitregressionmodelsexplainingtheuseof
theindirectorganizationalchannel,bycampaign 170
7.10 Timeinterval(indays)betweenthecampaignstartand
theballotdate,byactorsandcampaigns 172
7.11 OLSregressionmodelsexplainingthelaunchingofthe
campaign,bycampaign 173
8.1 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsoftheasylumcampaign 181
8.2 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthenaturalization
campaign 182
8.3 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthehealthcarearticle
campaign 182
8.4 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthesinglehealth
insurancecampaign 183
8.5 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthedisabledinsurance
campaign 183
8.6 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsoftheold-agepension
campaign 184
viii ListofTablesandFigures
8.7 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthecorporatetax
campaign 184
8.8 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsoftherighttosue
campaign 185
8.9 OLSregressionmodelsexplainingtheactors’
standardizedpowerlevels,bycampaign 193
8.10 Correlationcoefficientsbetweenresidualsandpower
levels,bycampaign 196
B.1 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedintheasylumlaw
campaign,byblock 218
B.2 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthenaturalization
campaign,byblock 220
B.3 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthehealtharticle
campaign,byblock 221
B.4 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthesinglehealth
insurancecampaign,byblock 222
B.5 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthedisabled
insurancecampaign,byblock 223
B.6 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthepensions
campaign,byblock 225
B.7 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthecorporatetax
campaign,byblock 226
B.8 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedintherighttosue
campaign,byblock 227
C.1 Theselecteditemsofissueownership,bycampaignand
block 229
Figures
2.1 Correlationbetweentheexpectedoutcomeandthe
proportionofvictory-seekingorganizations 20
2.2 Thetwoopposingcampsandtheircorresponding
componentcoalitions 24
2.3 Targetingofconstituencies 26
2.4 Fourcommunicationchannels 27
5.1 Beliefsintheasylumlawcampaign,bycomponent
coalition 116
5.2 Beliefsinthenaturalizationcampaign,bycomponent
coalition 117
5.3 Beliefsinthesinglehealthinsurancecampaign,by
componentcoalition 119
ListofTablesandFigures ix
5.4 Beliefsinthedisabledinsurancecampaign,by
componentcoalition 120
5.5 Beliefsinthecampaignonold-agepensions,by
componentcoalition 120
5.6 Beliefsinthecorporatetaxcampaign,bycomponent
coalition 121
5.7 Beliefsintherighttosueinitiativecampaign,by
componentcoalition 121
5.8 Beliefsinthecampaignonthehealthcarearticle,by
componentcoalition 122
A.1 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe
asylumlaw 214
A.2 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe
naturalizationinitiative(adjusted) 214
A.3 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe
healthcarearticle 215
A.4 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthesingle
healthinsurance 215
A.5 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe
disabledinsurancereform 216
A.6 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofpensions 216
A.7 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe
corporatetaxreform 217
A.8 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseoftheright
tosueinitiative 217