Caltrans Airport Forecasting Study

231 Pages·2014·2.27 MB·English

Caltrans Airport Forecasting Study
The Role of California Airports in Smart Growth and Economic Vitality

prepared for
California Department of Transportation
Division of Aeronautics
prepared by
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
with
Mead & Hunt
Economic Development Research Group
February 28, 2014 www.camsys.com

Caltrans Airport Forecasting Study
The Role of California Airports in Smart
Growth and Economic Vitality
prepared for
California Department of Transportation
Division of Aeronautics
prepared by
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
555 12th Street, Suite 1600
Oakland, CA 94607
with
Mead & Hunt
Economic Development Research Group
date
February 28, 2014

Caltrans Airport Forecasting Study
Acknowledgments
Caltrans, Division of Aeronautics, wishes to express their gratitude to the Federal
Highway Administration (FHWA) for helping sponsor a study that looks at the
role airports can play in an environmentally and economically sustainable
multimodal transportation system. We are also grateful to the airports, of all
sizes and functional classifications, who participated in the surveys. Your efforts
to integrate aviation in smart growth and smart mobility discussions are
paramount to the future of multimodal transportation in California.
This research study was performed with the FHWA fiscal year 2011 to 2012 State
Planning and Research (SPR) funds. Contract administration was provided by
Caltrans, Division of Aeronautics. Lead researcher was Cambridge Systematics,
Inc., with the assistance of Economic Development Research Group, Inc. (EDR
Group) and Mead & Hunt, Inc. The opinions and conclusions expressed or
implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research
and are not necessarily those of the FHWA, Caltrans, or the program sponsors.
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

Caltrans Airport Forecasting Study
Table of Contents
1.0  Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1-1 
1.1  Purpose of this Study ................................................................................. 1-1 
1.2  The Primary Audience ............................................................................... 1-2 
1.3  Data Sources Used ...................................................................................... 1-2 
1.4  Study Outline .............................................................................................. 1-3 
2.0  Background Information ................................................................................... 2-1 
2.1  Caltrans Division of Aeronautics Airport Airside Functional
Classification Categories ............................................................................ 2-1 
2.2  Selecting Initial Airport Study Areas ....................................................... 2-2 
2.3  Airport Landside Classification and Roles ............................................. 2-3 
2.4  Overall Method of Analysis: A Case Study Approach......................... 2-3 
3.0  Airports and Smart Growth .............................................................................. 3-1 
3.1  Smart Growth Characteristics in the Context of Airport Areas ........... 3-1 
3.2  Criteria for Determining the Airport Area Roles in the Region’s
SCS ................................................................................................................ 3-2 
3.3  Categorizing Airport Roles to Support Smart Growth ......................... 3-4 
4.0  Economic Analysis Context and Methodology Overview .......................... 4-1 
4.1  California Economic Context .................................................................... 4-1 
4.2  Economic Analysis Methodology ............................................................. 4-1 
5.0  Airport Case Studies .......................................................................................... 5-1 
5.1  Airports Directly Supporting Smart Growth .......................................... 5-3 
5.2  Airports Supporting Smart Growth Areas ............................................ 5-92 
5.3  Land Bank Airports ................................................................................ 5-182 
6.0  Findings and Implications ................................................................................ 6-1 

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Caltrans Airport Forecasting Study
List of Tables
Table 2.1  Study Airports by Airside Classification ........................................... 2-2 
Table 3.1  Airport Land Smart Growth Relative Smart Growth
Compatibility ......................................................................................... 3-4 
Table 3.2  Study Airport Role Categorization Results ....................................... 3-5 
Table 5.1  Study Airports by Landside Role and Caltrans DoA Airside
Category .................................................................................................. 5-2 
Table 5.2  Contra Costa County and Concord Population and
Population Change (1990 to 2012) ....................................................... 5-5 
Table 5.3  Contra Costa County and Concord Unemployment Rate (1990
to 2013) .................................................................................................... 5-7 
Table 5.4  Concord Zoning Districts near CCR ................................................. 5-11 
Table 5.5  CCR Project Area Employment by Industry (2012) ........................ 5-14 
Table 5.6  CCR Area Employment by Industry (2040) ..................................... 5-16 
Table 5.7  CCR Economic Analysis Results (2040) ............................................ 5-17 
Table 5.8  Fresno County and City Population and Population Change
(1990 to 2012) ........................................................................................ 5-19 
Table 5.9  Fresno County and City Unemployment Rates (1990 to 2013) ..... 5-20 
Table 5.10  Fresno County Housing Type and Vacancy Rate (2012) ............... 5-23 
Table 5.11  Fresno Zoning Districts near FAT (2012) ......................................... 5-24 
Table 5.12  FAT Area Employment by Industry (2012) ..................................... 5-28 
Table 5.13  FAT Area Employment by Industry (2040) ..................................... 5-29 
Table 5.14  FAT Area Economic Analysis Results (2040)................................... 5-30 
Table 5.15  San Diego County and El Cajon Population and Population
Change (1990 to 2012) ......................................................................... 5-32 
Table 5.16  San Diego County and El Cajon Unemployment Rates (1990
to 2013) .................................................................................................. 5-34 
Table 5.17  SEE Area Development Activities ..................................................... 5-37 
Table 5.18  El Cajon and Santee Zoning near SEE .............................................. 5-40 
Table 5.19  SEE Area Employment by Industry (2012) ...................................... 5-43 
Table 5.20  SEE Area Employment by Industry (2040) ...................................... 5-44 
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List of Tables, continued
Table 5.21  See Area Economic Analysis Results (2040) .................................... 5-45 
Table 5.22  Alameda County and Hayward Population and Population
Change (1990 to 2012) ......................................................................... 5-48 
Table 5.23  Alameda County and Hayward Unemployment Rates (1990
to 2013) .................................................................................................. 5-49 
Table 5.24  Hayward Zoning Districts near HWD ............................................. 5-53 
Table 5.25  Los Angeles County and Santa Monica Population and
Population Change (1990 to 2012) ..................................................... 5-57 
Table 5.26  Los Angeles County and Santa Monica Unemployment Rate
(1990 to 2013) ........................................................................................ 5-59 
Table 5.27  SMO Area Employment by Industry (2012) .................................... 5-66 
Table 5.28  SMO Area Employment by Industry (2040) .................................... 5-67 
Table 5.29  SMO Economic Analysis Results (2040) ........................................... 5-68 
Table 5.30  San Diego County and San Diego Population and Population
Change (1990 to 2012) ......................................................................... 5-72 
Table 5.31  San Diego County and City Population Educational Profile
(2012) ..................................................................................................... 5-73 
Table 5.32  San Diego County and City Unemployment Rates (1990 to
2013) ....................................................................................................... 5-74 
Table 5.33  San Diego County and San Diego Housing Type and Vacancy
Rate (2012) ............................................................................................ 5-75 
Table 5.34  Los Angeles County and City Population and Population
Change (1990 to 2000) ......................................................................... 5-84 
Table 5.35  Los Angeles County and City Unemployment Rate (1990 to
2013) ....................................................................................................... 5-85 
Table 5.36  Placer County and Auburn Population and Population
Change (1990 to 2012) ......................................................................... 5-94 
Table 5.37  Placer County and Auburn Population Educational Profile
(2012) ..................................................................................................... 5-95 
Table 5.38  Placer County and Auburn Unemployment Rates (1990 to
2013) ....................................................................................................... 5-95 
Table 5.39  Placer County and Auburn Housing Type and Vacancy Rate
(2012) ..................................................................................................... 5-97 
Table 5.40  Auburn Zoning Districts near AUN ................................................. 5-99 
Table 5.41  AUN Area Height and FAR Restrictions ......................................... 5-99 
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