Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in

88 Pages·2010·1.95 MB·English

by  Karolina Zubrzycka

Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030

Assessment of Greenhouse
Gas Emissions Abatement
Potential in Poland by 2030

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Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030

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Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030

Assessment of Greenhouse
Gas Emissions Abatement
Potential in Poland by 2030

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Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030

Foreword

Climate change has become a business reality, as more and more countries around the world are
adopting stringent greenhouse gas reduction targets.

For Poland to be able to assess what greenhouse gas reductions are achievable, when, and at what
cost, a comprehensive analysis is required. McKinsey & Company, under the Honorary Patronage of the
Polish Ministry of Economy, cooperated with over 40 institutions and companies to assess greenhouse
gas reduction opportunities for Poland. All assumptions and results were discussed in numerous
interviews with leading experts. Using a methodology proven in over 20 country studies worldwide, the
research investigated over 100 individual abatement measures in all major areas of the economy.

This report1 does not evaluate the science of climate change. It also avoids assessing policies,
political implementation programs, and other governmental interventions. It is strictly intended to provide
an objective fact base of the abatement potential and the costs of abatement measures in Poland. This data
can serve as a starting point for further discussions and decisions.

We would like to thank all the participating experts, companies, and associations for their
constructive cooperation and valuable inputs over the past few months.

Warsaw, December 2009

Jacek Poświata Wojtek Bogdan
Director Principal
McKinsey & Company Poland McKinsey & Company Poland

1 The report is published in Polish and in English. Please note that minor differences may occur between versions.

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Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030

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Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030

Acknowledgements
Honorary Patronage
Ministry of Economy, Deputy Prime Minister and Minster of Economy Waldemar Pawlak
Supporting Patrons
Ministry of the Environment
Committee on Energy Safety Policy
Prime Minister’s Strategy Advisors’Team
Financing Partners
European Climate Foundation
The World Bank
Vattenfall Polska
Polski KomitetEnergiiElektrycznej
▪ Polska GrupaEnergetyczna
▪ Tauron
▪ ENERGA
▪ ENEA
Scientific Advisory Panel
PhD AndrzejKassenberg, Institute for Sustainable Development
Prof. MaciejSadowski, Environmental Protection Institute
Prof. Krzysztof Żmijewski, Social Council of the National Emissions Reduction Program

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Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030

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Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030

Table of Contents
Foreword 1
Acknowledgements 3
Summary of Findings 7
The Global Context 25
Objectives and Methodology 29
GHG Abatement Potential in Poland 33
Business-As-Usual Emissions Trajectory in Poland 33
Total Abatement Potential 35
Energy Efficiency 38
Low Emissions Power Supply 43
Carbon Capture And Storage 49
Remaining Levers 49
GHG Abatement Investment 55
Implementation Path and Scenarios 61
Uncertainties and Sensitivities 69
Appendix – Examples of Other Technological GHG Reduction Levers in
Transport 73
Glossary 75
Bibliography 78

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Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Abatement Potential in Poland by 2030

Summary of Findings

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