Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 2

216 Pages·2005·0.88 MB·English

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Aptitude for Destruction
Volume 2
Case Studies of Organizational Learning
in Five Terrorist Groups
Brian A. Jackson
John C. Baker
Kim Cragin
John Parachini
Horacio R. Trujillo
Peter Chalk
Prepared for the National Institute of Justice
The research described in this report was supported by Grant No. 2003-
IJ-CX-1022 awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice
Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The research was conducted
within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE), a division
of the RAND Corporation, for the National Institute of Justice. Points
of view in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily
represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of
Justice.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Aptitude for destruction : organizational learning in terrorist groups and its implications for
combating terrorism / Brian A. Jackson ... [et al.].
p. cm.
“MG-331.”
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-8330-3764-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Terrorists. 2. Organizational learning. 3. Terrorism—Prevention—Government
policy. I. Jackson, Brian A. (Brian Anthony) II.Title.
HV6431.A67 2005
303.6'25—dc22
2005003983
“MG-332.”
ISBN 0-8330-3767-6
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Preface
Continuing conflicts between violent groups and states generate an ever-present de-
mand for higher quality and more timely information to support operations to com-
bat terrorism. In particular, better ways are needed to understand how terrorist and
insurgent groups adapt over time into more-effective organizations and increasingly
dangerous threats. To adapt, terrorist organizations must learn. A group’s ability to
learn determines its chance of success, since learning is the link between what the
group wants to do and its ability to gather the needed information and resources to
actually do it. Despite the importance of terrorist group learning, comparatively little
focused research effort has been directed at understanding this process and identify-
ing the factors that influence group learning ability. While relevant data and insights
can be found in the literature on terrorism and terrorist organizations, this informa-
tion has not been collected and systematically analyzed to assess its importance from
the perspective of efforts to combat terrorism. This study addresses that need in an
effort to both analyze current understanding and stimulate further study and research
in this area.
The National Institute of Justice provided funding to the RAND Corporation
to conduct an analysis of organizational learning in terrorist groups and assess its im-
plications for efforts to combat terrorism. The work was performed between Novem-
ber 2003 and November 2004, a period during which the threat of international ter-
rorism was high and concern about the capabilities of terrorist organizations and how
they might change over time was a central focus of policy debate and U.S. homeland
security planning. The study is described in this report and in a companion volume,
Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and
Its Implications for Combating Terrorism, MG-331-NIJ, which applies the analytical
framework described in the second part of this report to the practical demands of in-
telligence and law enforcement activities.
This report should be of interest to a wide range of audiences, including profes-
sionals with interests in terrorism, counterterrorism, emergency response planning,
and homeland security. It extends RAND’s ongoing research on terrorism and do-
mestic security issues. Related RAND publications include the following:
iii
iv Aptitude for Destruction
• Brian A. Jackson et al., Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational
Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism,
MG-331-NIJ.
• Brian A. Jackson et al., Protecting Emergency Responders: Lessons Learned from
Terrorist Attacks, CF-176-OSTP, 2002.
• Kim Cragin and Sara A. Daly, The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of
Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World, MR-1782-AF, 2004.
• Peter Chalk and William Rosenau, Confronting the “Enemy Within”: Security
Intelligence, the Police, and Counterterrorism in Four Democracies, MG-100-RC,
2004.
• Bruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, OP-127-IPC/
CMEPP, 2004.
This research was conducted within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Envi-
ronment (ISE), a division of the RAND Corporation. The mission of RAND ISE is
to improve the development, operation, use, and protection of society’s essential
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of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communities. The ISE research
portfolio encompasses research and analysis on a broad range of policy areas includ-
ing homeland security, criminal justice, public safety, occupational safety, the envi-
ronment, energy, natural resources, climate, agriculture, economic development,
transportation, information and telecommunications technologies, space exploration,
and other aspects of science and technology policy. Inquiries regarding RAND Infra-
structure, Safety, and Environment may be directed to:
Debra Knopman, Vice President and Director
RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment
1200 South Hayes Street
Arlington, Virginia 22202
703-413-1100
Email: [email protected]
http://www.rand.org/ise
Contents
Preface........................................................................................iii
Figures and Tables...........................................................................ix
Acknowledgments............................................................................xi
Abbreviations and Acronyms ..............................................................xiii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction Brian A. Jackson ..............................................................1
The Need to Both Describe and Explain Learning............................................2
About This Study..............................................................................3
About This Report.............................................................................5
References......................................................................................6
Part I: Case Studies
Prologue.......................................................................................9
CHAPTER TWO
Aum Shinrikyo John Parachini ...........................................................11
Introduction .................................................................................11
Background..................................................................................12
Operations and Tactics......................................................................18
Training......................................................................................25
Logistics......................................................................................27
Intelligence and Operational Security.......................................................31
Conclusions..................................................................................32
References....................................................................................34
CHAPTER THREE
Hizballah, the Party of God Kim Cragin ................................................37
Introduction .................................................................................37
Background..................................................................................37
Operations and Tactics......................................................................40
v
vi Aptitude for Destruction
Training......................................................................................47
Logistics......................................................................................48
Intelligence and Operational Security.......................................................51
Conclusions..................................................................................53
References....................................................................................54
CHAPTER FOUR
Jemaah Islamiyah John C. Baker .........................................................57
Introduction .................................................................................57
Background..................................................................................59
Operations and Tactics......................................................................66
Training......................................................................................76
Logistics......................................................................................79
Intelligence and Operational Security.......................................................80
Conclusions..................................................................................84
References....................................................................................89
CHAPTER FIVE
Provisional Irish Republican Army Brian A. Jackson ...................................93
Introduction .................................................................................93
Background..................................................................................94
Operations and Tactics......................................................................97
Training.....................................................................................119
Logistics.....................................................................................125
Intelligence and Operational Security......................................................126
Conclusions.................................................................................133
References...................................................................................138
CHAPTER SIX
The Radical Environmentalist Movement Horacio R. Trujillo ........................141
Introduction ................................................................................141
Background.................................................................................142
Operations and Tactics.....................................................................152
Training.....................................................................................161
Intelligence and Operational Security......................................................163
Conclusions.................................................................................164
References...................................................................................172
Contents vii
Part II: Theory and Application
Prologue....................................................................................179
CHAPTER SEVEN
Theory: Organizational Learning as a Four-Component Process
Horacio R. Trujillo and Brian A. Jackson ............................................181
Acquisition..................................................................................183
Interpretation...............................................................................185
Distribution.................................................................................186
Storage......................................................................................187
References...................................................................................187
CHAPTER EIGHT
Application: The Four Components of Organizational Learning
in the Case Study Groups Brian A. Jackson ..........................................191
Acquisition..................................................................................191
Interpretation...............................................................................195
Distribution.................................................................................196
Storage......................................................................................198
CHAPTER NINE
Concluding Observations Brian A. Jackson .............................................199