US Renewable Energy

14 Pages·2016·1.62 MB·English

U.S. Renewable Energy:
Increasing Capacity- Reducing Costs
Presentation to the Japan
Renewable Energy Foundation
Douglas Arent, Ph.D.
March 2016
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated bythe Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
US Wind Resources
US Wind Power Technical Potential
• Onshore – 11,000 GW
• Offshore – 4,200 GW
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US Wind Generation Trends
US Wind Power Technical Potential
• Onshore – 11,000 GW
• Offshore – 4,200 GW
Source: EIA and LBNL
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Geographic Spread of Wind Projects in the United
States Is Reasonably Broad
Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in brackets, annual additions in 2014
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US Offshore Wind Projects
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Wind Power PPA Trends
Interior (20,611 MW, 212 contracts)
$120
West (7,124 MW, 72 contracts)
)
h Great Lakes (3,620 MW, 48 contracts)
W
$100
Northeast (1,018 MW, 25 contracts)
M
150 MW 50 MW
/ Southeast (268 MW, 6 contracts)
$
$80
4
1
0
2
(
$60
e
c
i
r
P
A $40
P
P

d
e $20
z
i 75 MW
l
e
v
e $0
L
6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5
9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n
a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a
J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J
PPA Execution Date
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U.S. Solar Energy Resource
US Solar Power Technical Potential
• PV – 154,000 GW
• CSP – 38,000 GW
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U.S. Solar Deployment Trends
US Solar Power Technical Potential
• PV – 154,000 GW
• CSP – 38,000 GW
8
U.S. Solar Deployment
Sources: GTM/SEIA and IREC
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US Solar PPA Price (Utility Projects)
$300
Signing Date
$250
Commissioning Date
)
h
W
$200
k
/
$
(
e $150
c
i
r 38 MW
P
$100
A
P
P
$50 320 MW
$-
Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14 May-16
• PPA prices have continued to decline due to intense competition among solar developers
– Several projects have signed PPA’s for approximately $0.05/kWh
• A lag between a project’s PPA “signing date” and its “commissioning date” can lead to conflicting
information regarding “current” pricing for PV
– The weighted capacity lag between the above projects averaged over 3 years
Note:Commissioning date data from NREL internal database.
Source: BNEF H2 2014 PPA Market Outlook. December 12, 2014.
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