Table Of ContentP
ADvAnce PrAiSe for
I An insider’s account of the
The Eagle and the Trident F
E E AG L E complex relationship between
How did Ukraine get into its current situation? Steven Pifer, in this remarkably
R The and the
well-documented book, shows us. From the euphoria of independence in 1991, to the United States and
the elimination of nuclear weapons and working through a sea of corruption and
venal politicians, here is the history of U.S. engagement with post-Soviet Ukraine, post-Soviet Ukraine
including what did not work. As Pifer demonstrates, there is more than enough
Th T R I D E N T
blame to go around. The U.S. and EU do not escape unscathed. We need to rethink
our approach to enforce reforms that will benefit the citizens of Ukraine. e The Eagle and the Trident, the first comprehensive
E account of the development of U.S. relations with
—richArD ArmitAGe
an independent Ukraine, covers the years 1991
Trustee, Center for Strategic and International Studies, A U.S.–Ukraine Relations in Turbulent Times
through 2004, following the collapse of the Sovi-
and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
et Union. During that period, the United States
G
I am very much impressed by the political insights and broad historical perspective
devoted greater attention to Ukraine than any
of The Eagle and the Trident. It should be an essential item in anyone’s operational
other post-Soviet state, except Russia. Here Pifer
L
library, given the high probability that Ukraine will continue to be an important
has written the definitive narrative of the advances
issue for the United States, for East-West relations, and as a critical test of Russia’s
Steven Pifer is a senior fellow in the E and setbacks experienced by Washington and Kyiv
ability to be a genuine European state.
Foreign Policy program at the Brookings while both countries worked to fulfill the promise
—ZBiGnieW BrZeZinSKi
Institution. He was previously a foreign a of the newly independent Ukrainian state.
Counselor and Trustee, Center for Strategic and International Studies, n
service officer, where his career spanned and former U.S. National Security Adviser d t The relationship between the two countries
twenty-seven years in the Department of h
e moved from heady days in the mid-1990s, when
State, focusing on U.S. relations with the
In this persuasive account of a quarter-century of relations between Washington they declared a strategic partnership, to troubled
former Soviet Union and Europe, as well and Kyiv, Steven Pifer explains the important stakes for the United States in T times between 2001 and 2004. The Eagle and the
as arms control and security issues. He was
Ukraine. Drawing on his extensive experience of government service—including
Trident describes how the United States has gen-
ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 through
as ambassador to Ukraine—he chronicles the successes and failures of U.S. policy R
erally succeeded in its major foreign policy goals
2000. He also served stints as deputy
in supporting Ukraine in its two major challenges: implementing economic and
in Ukraine—notably the safe transfer of nearly
assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of legal reforms and dealing with Russia. This is essential reading for understanding I
2,000 strategic nuclear weapons left there after
European and Eurasian Affairs and special
the past, present, and future of U.S.-Ukraine relations. D
assistant to the president and senior director the Soviet collapse. However, while Washington
—AnGelA Stent
for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia on the also provided robust support for Ukraine’s effort
Director, Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies; E
National Security Council. to develop into a modern, democratic, market-
Professor of Government and Foreign Service, Georgetown University;
and former U.S. National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia N oriented state, these efforts to reform the state
proved less successful, leaving a nation that was
AnnA ZylicZ · AnnAZylicZ.com Ambassador Pifer has long been respected as a diplomat, policymaker, and T not sufficiently resilient to stand up to Russian
commentator on the high-stakes challenges of our time. In The Eagle and the
Jacket design aggression in 2014.
Trident, he has achieved a trifecta: an engaging memoir of his role in the painful
Pifer, who served as the American ambassador
rebirth of a long-oppressed nation; a must-read for historians and students of the
to Ukraine during its early days of independence,
post–Cold War period; and a highly relevant guide to the ongoing crisis among
ric GAZAriAn reflects on what worked and what did not work
Ukraine, Russia, and the West.
Photo in the various U.S. approaches toward Ukraine
—StroBe tAlBott
since independence. He also offers a practitioner’s
President, Brookings Institution, and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
recommendations for current U.S. policies in the
context of ongoing uncertainty about the stability
BrooKinGS inStitUtion PreSS
S T EV EN P I F ER of Ukraine and Russia’s long-term intentions to-
WAShinGton, D.c.
ward its smaller but important neighbor.
WWW.BrooKinGS.eDU/PreSS
Pifer_Eagle and Trident_Jacket CEB.indd 1 5/25/17 2:41 PM
P
ADvAnce PrAiSe for
I An insider’s account of the
The Eagle and the Trident F
E E AG L E complex relationship between
How did Ukraine get into its current situation? Steven Pifer, in this remarkably
R The and the
well-documented book, shows us. From the euphoria of independence in 1991, to the United States and
the elimination of nuclear weapons and working through a sea of corruption and
venal politicians, here is the history of U.S. engagement with post-Soviet Ukraine, post-Soviet Ukraine
including what did not work. As Pifer demonstrates, there is more than enough
Th T R I D E N T
blame to go around. The U.S. and EU do not escape unscathed. We need to rethink
our approach to enforce reforms that will benefit the citizens of Ukraine. e The Eagle and the Trident, the first comprehensive
E account of the development of U.S. relations with
—richArD ArmitAGe
an independent Ukraine, covers the years 1991
Trustee, Center for Strategic and International Studies, A U.S.–Ukraine Relations in Turbulent Times
through 2004, following the collapse of the Sovi-
and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
et Union. During that period, the United States
G
I am very much impressed by the political insights and broad historical perspective
devoted greater attention to Ukraine than any
of The Eagle and the Trident. It should be an essential item in anyone’s operational
other post-Soviet state, except Russia. Here Pifer
L
library, given the high probability that Ukraine will continue to be an important
has written the definitive narrative of the advances
issue for the United States, for East-West relations, and as a critical test of Russia’s
Steven Pifer is a senior fellow in the E and setbacks experienced by Washington and Kyiv
ability to be a genuine European state.
Foreign Policy program at the Brookings while both countries worked to fulfill the promise
—ZBiGnieW BrZeZinSKi
Institution. He was previously a foreign a of the newly independent Ukrainian state.
Counselor and Trustee, Center for Strategic and International Studies, n
service officer, where his career spanned and former U.S. National Security Adviser d t The relationship between the two countries
twenty-seven years in the Department of h
e moved from heady days in the mid-1990s, when
State, focusing on U.S. relations with the
In this persuasive account of a quarter-century of relations between Washington they declared a strategic partnership, to troubled
former Soviet Union and Europe, as well and Kyiv, Steven Pifer explains the important stakes for the United States in T times between 2001 and 2004. The Eagle and the
as arms control and security issues. He was
Ukraine. Drawing on his extensive experience of government service—including
Trident describes how the United States has gen-
ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 through
as ambassador to Ukraine—he chronicles the successes and failures of U.S. policy R
erally succeeded in its major foreign policy goals
2000. He also served stints as deputy
in supporting Ukraine in its two major challenges: implementing economic and
in Ukraine—notably the safe transfer of nearly
assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of legal reforms and dealing with Russia. This is essential reading for understanding I
2,000 strategic nuclear weapons left there after
European and Eurasian Affairs and special
the past, present, and future of U.S.-Ukraine relations. D
assistant to the president and senior director the Soviet collapse. However, while Washington
—AnGelA Stent
for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia on the also provided robust support for Ukraine’s effort
Director, Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies; E
National Security Council. to develop into a modern, democratic, market-
Professor of Government and Foreign Service, Georgetown University;
and former U.S. National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia N oriented state, these efforts to reform the state
proved less successful, leaving a nation that was
AnnA ZylicZ · AnnAZylicZ.com Ambassador Pifer has long been respected as a diplomat, policymaker, and T not sufficiently resilient to stand up to Russian
commentator on the high-stakes challenges of our time. In The Eagle and the
Jacket design aggression in 2014.
Trident, he has achieved a trifecta: an engaging memoir of his role in the painful
Pifer, who served as the American ambassador
rebirth of a long-oppressed nation; a must-read for historians and students of the
to Ukraine during its early days of independence,
post–Cold War period; and a highly relevant guide to the ongoing crisis among
ric GAZAriAn reflects on what worked and what did not work
Ukraine, Russia, and the West.
Photo in the various U.S. approaches toward Ukraine
—StroBe tAlBott
since independence. He also offers a practitioner’s
President, Brookings Institution, and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
recommendations for current U.S. policies in the
context of ongoing uncertainty about the stability
BrooKinGS inStitUtion PreSS
S T EV EN P I F ER of Ukraine and Russia’s long-term intentions to-
WAShinGton, D.c.
ward its smaller but important neighbor.
WWW.BrooKinGS.eDU/PreSS
Pifer_Eagle and Trident_Jacket CEB.indd 1 5/25/17 2:41 PM
The
EAGLE
and the
TRIDENT
00-3040-8 fm.indd 1 05/15/17 11:36 am
00-3040-8 fm.indd 2 05/15/17 11:36 am
The
EAGLE
and the
TRIDENT
U.S.- Ukraine Relations
in Turbulent Times
STEVEN PIFER
brookings institution press
Washington, D.C.
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Copyright © 2017
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
1775 Mas sa chu setts Ave nue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
www. b rookings. e du
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or trans-
mitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the
Brookings Institution Press.
The Brookings Institution is a private nonprofit organ ization devoted to re-
search, education, and publication on impor tant issues of domestic and for-
eign policy. Its principal purpose is to bring the highest quality in de pen dent
research and analy sis to bear on current and emerging policy prob lems. In-
terpretations or conclusions in Brookings publications should be understood
to be solely those of the authors.
Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication data are available.
ISBN 978-0-8157-3040-8 (cloth : alk. paper)
ISBN 978-0-8157-3062-0 (ebook)
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Typeset in Sabon
Composition by Westchester Publishing Ser vices
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Contents
Introduction 1
1 Establishing Relations 9
2 Dealing with Nuclear Weapons 37
3 The Relationship Blossoms 77
4 The Relationship Matures . . . b ut Prob lems Appear 127
5 Coping with Downturn 209
6 Election and Revolution 263
7 History D idn’t End with the Orange Revolution 277
8 Lessons and Policy Recommendations 315
Acknowle dgments 337
Abbreviations and Acronyms 341
Notes 343
Index 355
00-3040-8 fm.indd 5 05/15/17 11:36 am
00-3040-8 fm.indd 6 05/15/17 11:36 am
Introduction
The collapse of the Soviet Union was a seminal event in the late
twentieth century. While hardly the g reat catastrophe bemoaned
by Vladimir Putin— certainly not in the eyes of subject p eoples who
gained the opportunity to shape their own nations and destinies—it
dramatically altered the geopo liti cal landscape of Eu rope and Asia. Fif-
teen states emerged from the territory that mapmakers formerly called
the Soviet Union.
The collapse was especially remarkable in two aspects. First, the
rapidity of the end. In the mid-1980s, the Soviet Union stood as one
of two global superpowers. Approaching the fifth de cade of the Cold
War, it challenged the United States and the West po liti cally, militarily,
eco nom ically, and ideologically. By the end of 1991, it had ceased to
exist. Second, the relatively quiet nature of the collapse. While some
bloodshed occurred, mainly as long- suppressed ethnic tensions broke
out, the end was far more peaceful than might have been expected. For
the most part, Soviet structures simply evaporated.
The collapse saw Ukraine regain its in dep en dence from Rus sia as
well as from the Soviet Union. Ukraine had been a part of the Rus sian
Empire or Soviet Union since Ukraine’s Cossack leaders signed the
1
01-3040-8 int.indd 1 05/15/17 11:37 am
2 The Eagle and the Trident
Treaty of Pereyaslav in 1654, except for a brief period from 1918 to
1921, roughly between the collapse of Czarist Rus sia a fter the Octo-
ber Revolution in 1917 and the formal founding of the Union of Soviet
Socialist Republics in late 1922. Ukrainians and Rus sians both claimed
Kyivan Rus’— the state that from 882 to 1240 A.D. occupied much of
present- day Ukraine—as central to their historical, religious, and cul-
tural heritage.
Official Washington was slow to recognize the coming collapse and
showed a significant degree of ambivalence about the Soviet Union’s
demise. However, it became clear to all in December 1991 that the Soviet
Union and its leader, President Mikhail Gorbachev, had no f uture. The
U.S. government then moved swiftly to establish relations with each of
the twelve New In dep en dent States, in addition to the Baltic nations of
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, whose incorporation into the Soviet
Union the United States had never diplomatically accepted and whose
in dep en dence Moscow had recognized the previous September.
Of the new states, Ukraine was bound to receive a great deal of
attention— indeed, the most attention after Rus sia. With nearly 52
million people in 1991, it was the second most populous post- Soviet
republic. The largest country entirely within borders of the Eu ro pean
continent, it lay just to the east of the nations of Central Eu rope. Now
freed of the Warsaw Pact, t hose states would soon begin to press to
join the Eu ro pean Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organ ization
(NATO), which would mean that Ukraine would find itself bordering
two key Eu ro pean institutions as well as share a lengthy border with
Rus sia. How Ukraine developed would have a big impact on the U.S.
goal, dating back to the George H. W. Bush administration, of build-
ing a Eu rope whole, f ree, and at peace. How Ukraine developed was
also bound to have an impact on how Rus sia evolved in the post– Cold
War and post- Soviet world.
Ukraine seemed well placed to prosper as an in dep en dent state and
become one of the early post- Soviet success stories. It had a highly ed-
ucated and talented workforce. Eco nom ically, it contained agricultural
land with im mense productive potential, including some 30 p ercent of
the world’s black earth— rich and productive agricultural land (whereas
the black earth is a foot deep in Iowa, it is three to four feet deep in
Ukraine). The country also had a good portion of the Soviet Union’s
industrial base, particularly in the high- tech, heavy- metal, aerospace,
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