The Chinese Economy: Recent Trends and Policy Issues

284 Pages·2013·3.466 MB·English

by  Giorgio Gomel, Daniela Marconi, Ignazio Musu, Beniamino Quintieri (auth.), Giorgio Gomel, Daniela Marconi, Ignazio Musu, Beniamino Quintieri (eds.)

The Chinese Economy
.
Giorgio Gomel (cid:129) Daniela Marconi (cid:129) Ignazio Musu
Beniamino Quintieri
Editors
The Chinese Economy
Recent Trends and Policy Issues
Editors
GiorgioGomel Prof.IgnazioMusu
DanielaMarconi DepartmentofEconomics
Intl.EconomicAnalysisandRelationsDept. Ca’FoscariUniversityofVenice
BankofItaly Venice
Rome Italy
Italy
Prof.BeniaminoQuintieri
DepartmentofEconomics
TorVergataUniversityofRome
Rome
Italy
ISBN978-3-642-28637-7 ISBN978-3-642-28638-4(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-642-28638-4
SpringerHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2012943043
#Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2013
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Acknowledgements
This book is the result of a research project undertaken by the Bank of Italy in
collaborationwiththeManlioMasiFoundation,theUniversityofVeniceandother
Italian institutions and universities. A workshop on the “Chinese Economy” was
heldattheVeniceInternationalUniversityinNovember2010,fromwhichsomeof
thecontributionsincludedinthisvolumewereselected.
We would like to thank Ignazio Visco, Governor of the Bank of Italy, and
Salvatore Rossi, Deputy Director General of the Bank, for supporting this project
sincetheverybeginning.Wewishtothankallthecolleaguesthathelpedorganize
the workshop, and in particular Elisa Carlotto for her outstanding assistance in
VeniceandDianaCrupi,attheManlioMasiFoundation,forhavingprovidedgreat
helpinmanyorganizationaltasks.Wealsowishtoacknowledgeandthankallthose
whocontributedwiththeirideasandsuggestionstothisproject.Weareindebtedto
CarlaLucidi,oftheBankofItaly,aswellasAliceChambers,DanielDichter,Roger
Meservey,JenniferParkinsonandChristineStone,fortheircarefulrevisionofthe
English texts. Carmela Sorrenti and Lorenzo Poletto, both at the Bank of Italy,
providedexcellentassistance.
v
.
Contents
1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
GiorgioGomel,DanielaMarconi,IgnazioMusu,
andBeniaminoQuintieri
Part1 StatisticalIssues
2 ForecastingWorldOutput:TheRisingImportance
ofEmergingAsia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
AlessandroBorin,RiccardoCristadoro,RobertoGolinelli,
andGiuseppeParigi
3 MacroeconomicDevelopmentsinChina:TheStatistical
Challenges. . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. 35
MarcoMariniandFrancescoZollino
4 TechnicalEfficiencyandGovernance:TheCaseofChina. . . . . . . 55
GiovanniFerri,Li-GangLiu,andCamillaMastromarco
Part2 DemographicChanges,UrbanizationandHouseholdSavings
5 DemographicTrendsandSustainabilityoftheOld-AgeSecurity
SysteminChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
EnricaDiStefano
6 UrbanandRuralHouseholdSavingsinChina:Determinants
andPolicyImplications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
RiccardoCristadoroandDanielaMarconi
7 SavingRatesofUrbanHouseholdsinChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
AgarBrugiavini,GuglielmoWeber,andBinzhenWu
vii
viii Contents
Part3 ChinaandWorldTrade:ChallengesandOpportunities
8 The“ChinaEffect”onEUExportstoOECDMarkets:
AFocusonItaly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
GiorgiaGiovannetti,MarcoSanfilippo,andMargheritaVelucchi
9 TheSophisticationofChina’sExports,ImportsandIntermediate
Products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
EnricoMarvasi
10 EnvironmentalGoodsTradeandTechnologyinChina. . . . . . . . . 211
GiovanniForestiandStefaniaTrenti
11 TrendsinPrivateConsumptioninChina:TheEmergence
oftheChineseHigh-IncomeClassandItsGlobalRelevance. . . . . 235
AlessandroGambiniandManuelaMarianera
12 AreFirmsExportingtoChinaandIndiaDifferentfromOther
Exporters?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
GiorgioBarbaNavaretti,MatteoBugamelli,RiccardoCristadoro,
andDanielaMaggioni
Authors and Affiliations
Alessandro Borin International Economic Analysis and Relations Department,
BankofItaly,Rome,Italy
AgarBrugiavini Ca’Foscari,UniversityofVenice,Venice,Italy
Matteo Bugamelli Structural Economic Analysis Department, Bank of Italy,
Rome,Italy
Riccardo Cristadoro International Economic Analysis and Relations Depart-
ment,BankofItaly,Rome,Italy
GiovanniFerri DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofBari,Bari,Italy
GiovanniForesti ResearchDepartment,IntesaSanpaolo,Milan,Italy
AlessandroGambini ResearchDepartment,Confindustria,Rome,Italy
Giorgia Giovannetti University of Florence and European University Institute,
Florence,Italy
Roberto Golinelli Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Bologna,
Italy
Li-Gang Liu Head of China Economic Research, ANZ Banking Group, Hong
Kong,China
DanielaMaggioni CentroStudiLucad’AglianoandUniversita` Politecnicadelle
Marche,Ancona,Italy
Daniela Marconi International Economic Analysis and Relations Department,
BankofItaly,Rome,Italy
ManuelaMarianera ResearchDepartmentConfindustria,Rome,Italy
MarcoMarini DepartmentofNationalAccounts,Istat,Rome,Italy
EnricoMarvasi NationalObservatoryforInternationalisationandTrade,Manlio
MasiFoundation,Rome,ItalyandTorVergataUniversityofRome,Rome,Italy
ix