The Caspian: Politics, Energy, Security (Central Asia Research Forum)

400 Pages·2004·2.96 MB·English

by  Shirin Akiner

The Caspian
Touted as the world’s next Arabia and a region of unbridled opportunity following the
Soviet collapse in 1991, the Caspian Sea and the turbulent oil rush that characterised the
ensuing decade captured the world’s attention in what at first sight appeared to be a
triumph of capitalism over communism. Yet rather than engendering immediate wealth
and prosperity for foreign multinationals, regional powers and local populations,
successive years have seen problems both historical and contemporary erect significant
hurdles in the path of development.
The Caspian reshapes a Caspian debate long defined by one-sided and politically
motivated analyses and, at times, fantastic reporting. Bringing together a whole range of
influential voices from academia, the media, the oil industry, civil service, the military
and diplomatic corps, this book rewrites the region’s recent history from the perspective
of the players themselves, ferreting out the nuances that characterise contemporary
Caspian energy and security politics.
Shirin Akiner is Lecturer in Central Asian Studies at the School of Oriental and
African Studies, University of London, UK.
CENTRAL ASIA RESEARCH FORUM
Series Editor: Shirin Akiner, School of Oriental and African Studies,
University of London
Other titles in the series:
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA
Edited by Shirin Akiner, Sander Tideman, and John Hay
QAIDU AND THE RISE OF THE INDEPENDENT MONGOL STATE IN CENTRAL
ASIA
Michal Biran
TAJIKISTAN
Edited by Mohammad-Reza Djalili, Frederic Gare, and Shirin Akiner
UZBEKISTAN ON THE THRESHOLD OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
Tradition and survival
Islam Karimov
TRADITION AND SOCIETY IN TURKMENISTAN
Gender, oral culture, and song
Carole Blackwell
LIFE OF ALIMQUL
A native chronicle of nineteenth-century Central Asia
Edited and translated by Timur Beisembieυ
CENTRAL ASIA
Aspects of transition
Edited by Tom Everrett-Heath
THE HEART OF ASIA
A history of Russia, Turkestan and the Central Asian Khanates from the earliest times
Frances Henry Skrine and Edward Denison Ross
THE CASPIAN
Politics, energy and security
Edited by Shirin Akiner
ISLAM AND COLONIALISM
Western perspectives on Soviet Asia
Will Myer
AZERI WOMEN IN TRANSITION
Women in Soviet and post-Soviet Azerbaijan
Farideh Heyat
THE POST-SOVIET DECLINE OF CENTRAL ASIA
Sustainable development and comprehensive capital
Eric Sievers
PROSPECTS FOR PASTORALISM IN KAZAKSTAN AND TURKMENISTAN
From state farms to private flocks
Edited by Carol Kerven
MUSLIM REFORMIST POLITICAL THOUGHT
Revivalists, modernists, and free will
Sarfraz Khan
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN
The role of large enterprises and foreign investment
Anne E.Peck
The Caspian
Politics, energy and security
Edited by
Shirin Akiner

LONDON AND NEW YORK
First published 2004 by RoutledgeCurzon 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxfordshire
OX14 4RN
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by RoutledgeCurzon 29 West 35th Street, New
York, NY 10001
RoutledgeCurzon is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2005.
“To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of
thousands of eBooks please go to http://www.ebookstore.tandf.co.uk/.”
© 2004 Shirin Akiner editorial matter and selection; individual chapters © the
individual contributors
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or
by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission
in writing from the publishers.
The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the
information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any
errors or omissions that may be made.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record of this book is available from
the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data The Caspian: politics, energy and
security/edited by Shirin Akiner. p. cm.—(Central Asia research forum series) Includes
bibliographical references and index. 1. Petroleum industry and trade—Caspian Sea Region. 2.
Gas industry—Caspian Sea Region. 3. Caspian Sea Region— Politics and government. 4.
Geopolitics—Caspian Sea Region. I. Akiner, Shirin. III. Series. HD9576.C372 C372 2004
338.2′728′09475–dc22 2003027445
ISBN Master e-book ISBN
ISBN 0-700-70501-5 (Print Edition)
Contents

List of illustrations x
Notes on contributors xii
Preface xv
Acknowledgements xvii
List of abbreviations xviii
Maps xxi

1
PART I Background

1 Caspian intersections: contextual introduction 2

SHIRIN AKINER

13
PART II Legal Issues

2 Legal history of the Caspian Sea 14

ALI GRANMAYEH
3 Negotiations on the legal status of the Caspian Sea 1992–1996: view 42
from Kazakhstan
VYACHESLAV GIZZATOV

54
PART III Geopolitics and Pipelines

4 Geopolitics of hydrocarbons in Central and Western Asia 55

ANOUSHIRAVAN EHTESHAMI
5 Pipeline politics 68

JOHN ROBERTS
6 Caspian energy development 79

TERENCE ADAMS
95
PART IV Socio-economic Issues

7 Natural resources, governance and transition in Azerbaijan, 96
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan
RICHARD AUTY
8 The role of oil in the development of Azerbaijan 113

WILLY OLSEN
9 Production Sharing Agreements and National Oil Funds 132

MARIKA KARAYIANNI

139
PART V Regional Perspectives

10 Azerbaijan: policy priorities towards the Caspian Sea 140

NASIB NASSIBLI
11 Turkmenistan’s Caspian resources and its international political 162
economy
GERMANA CANZI
12 Kazakhstan: oil, politics and the new ‘Great Game’ 180

MAJID JAFAR
13 Jockeying for power in the Caspian basin: Turkey versus Iran and 198
Russia
SUHA BOLUKBAŞI
14 Division of the Caspian Sea: Iranian policies and concerns 208

SIAMAK NAMAZI AND FARSHID FARZIN
15 Russia’s policy in the Caspian Sea region: reconciling economic and 221
security agendas
OKSANA ANTONENKO
16 US involvement in the business and politics of the Caspian Sea region 239

CARTER PAGE
17 Japan’s Eurasian diplomacy: power politics, resource diplomacy or 252
romanticism?
REINHARD DRIFTE

269
PART VI Security Issues

18 Militarisation of the Caspian Sea 270

MEVLUT KATIK
19 Chechnya: post-referendum prospects for normalisation 283

CHARLES BLANDY
20 Whither South Caucasus: to prosperity or to conflict? 295

URS GERBER
21 Environmental security in the Caspian Sea 314

SHIRIN AKINER

332
PART VII Emerging Caspian Challenges

22 Ten years on: achievements, new concerns, future prospects 333

SHIRIN AKINER

Index 365
Illustrations
Figures

7.1 Vicious circles of rent-seeking behaviour 108
14.1 Three methods for dividing the Caspian Sea 218
16.1 WTI spot price (June 1986–June 2003) 246
16.2 Summary of potential outcomes 247
Maps

1 The Eurasian region xxi
2 Disputed areas of the South Caspian (as of 2003) xxii
3 Exploration results in the Caspian region xxiii
4 Oil pipelines in the Caspian xxiv
5 Armenian-occupied territory in Azerbaijan xxv
6 Hydrogeology of the Caspian Sea xxvi
7 Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline route xxvii