Peru in crisis: dictatorship or democracy?

216 Pages·1994·6.313 MB·English

by  Joseph S. Tulchin, Gary Bland

Peru in Crisis
Woodrow Wilson Center
Current Studies on Latin America
Published with the Latin American Program
of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Joseph S. Tulchin, Director
Peru in Crisis:
Dictatorship or
Democracy?
edited by
Joseph S. Tulchin
Gary Bland
LYNNE
R1ENNER
PUBLISHERS
BOULDER
LONDON
Published in the United States of America in 1994 by
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and in the United Kingdom by
Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc.
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© 1994 by The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
All rights reserved
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Peru in Crisis: Dictatorship or Democracy? / edited byJoseph S. Tulchin
and Gary Bland.
(Woodrow Wilson Center current studies on Latin
America)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1-55587-543-2 (alk. paper)
1. Peru—Politics and government—1980- —Congresses.
2. Democracy—Peru—Congresses. 3. Peru—Economic conditions—1980-
—Congresses. 4. Insurgency—Peru—Congresses. 5. Civil-military
relations—Peru—Congresses. I. Tulchin, Joseph S., 1939— .
II. Bland, Gary. III. Series.
F3448.2.P4726 1994
320.985—dc20 94-14646
CIP
British Cataloguing in Publication Data
A Cataloguing in Publication record for this book
is available from the British Library.
Printed and bound in the United States of America
The paper used in this publication meets the requirements
® of the American National Standard for Permanence of
Paper for Printed Library Materials Z39.48-1984.
Contents
Preface Joseph S. Tulchin vii
1 Introduction: Democracy in Crisis and the
International Response
Carol Graham 1
Part 1 ■ Whither the Political System?
2 The Crisis of Governance
Francisco Sagasti and Max Hernández 23
3 Democracy’s Bleak Prospects
Fernando Rospigliosi 35
4 Commentary
Cynthia McClintock 63
5 Commentary
Manuel d’Ornellas 69
6 Commentary
Carol Graham 73
Part 2 ■ Achieving Social Peace
7 Shining Path and Counterinsurgency Strategy
Since the Arrest of Abimael Guzmán
Carlos Ivan Degregori $1
8 The Power of Peru’s Armed Forces
Enrique Obando 161
v
CONTENTS
9 Commentary
Gustavo Gorriti 125
10 Commentary
Marcial Rubio 129
11 Commentary
David Scott Palmer 133
Part 3 ■ Economic Growth and—or Versus?—Redistribution
12 Macroeconomic Stability and the Prospects for Growth,
1990-1993
Julio Velarde 139
13 Peru’s Difficult Road to Economic Development
Efraín Gonzales de Olarte 155
14 Commentary
John Sheahan 187
15 Commentary
Carol Wise 195
Index 203
About the Book 208
vi
Preface
The term autogolpe, or self-coup, now appears to be a permanent part
of the lexicon of Latin American affairs and US-Latin American re­
lations, following the decision by democratically elected President Al­
berto Fujimori to close down the institutions of representative gov­
ernment in Peru on 5 April 1992. As if the drug issue, a growing and
vicious insurgency, and a depressed economy were not enough, on
that day Peru was faced with yet another crisis, this one with major
repercussions for countries of the region that had grown confident
that democratic government was around for good.
The issues raised by the crisis of Peruvian democracy and the in­
ternational community’s response to it are many and varied and they
cannot be separated from developments of Peru’s past and the his­
tory of US-Latin American relations. Believing the time was right for
examining the country’s political and economic system within the
context created by the autogolpe, the Latin American Program con­
vened a major conference, “Peru: Democracy in Crisis and the Inter­
national Community,” at the Woodrow Wilson Center on 1 and 2
June 1993. The chapters of this volume are the revised papers com­
missioned for the meeting, coupled with edited transcripts of the re­
marks made by the commentators.
In addressing the issues, we particularly wanted to allow Peru­
vians themselves to express their views on the challenges facing their
country and on the appropriate response of the international com­
munity. We sought to provide some of Peru’s leading scholars and
analysts with an opportunity to exchange their views on three key is­
sues: the prospects for democracy, civil-military relations, and the
state of the economy. Therefore, while some of the commentary is
provided by North Americans, the six main chapters of this book are
the original work of Peruvian experts. For the introduction we
vii
PREFACE
turned to Carol Graham, a visiting fellow at the World Bank, who
provides an excellent analysis of the events and issues covered in this
volume. We are particularly pleased that such an excellent group of
Peruvians, as well as Peruvianists from Washington, DC, and other
parts of the hemisphere, were able to join the program in what
proved to be a most informative event.
These chapters have been substantially revised since the confer­
ence with use of the comments and discussion provided at the meet­
ing. We hope the volume will contribute to the ongoing scholarly
and policy debate on the democratic crisis within Peru and through­
out the international community.
Of course, the production of this, the final product, required the
excellent work of the program’s staff. Gary Bland, senior program as­
sociate and coeditor of the volume, organized the conference, served
as a moderator, and prepared the manuscript. The program’s two as­
sociates, Bernice Romero and Allison Garland, were tremendously
helpful in ensuring a successful conference. Lucy Hetrick, program
assistant, also was most helpful in organizing the meeting.
Joseph S. Tulchin
viii
1
Introduction: Democracy in Crisis
and the International Response
--------------------- Carol Graham
Few countries in the world have experienced economic deterioration
as extreme as Peru’s in the past decade. Fewer still have experienced
as dramatic a change of their political spectrum under peaceful—if
not fully democratic—auspices. And throughout this same period,
Peruvian society has faced a challenge from one of the most brutal
and violent insurrectionary movements to operate in the hemi­
sphere, Sendero Luminoso, or Shining Path.
Although the extreme nature of Peru’s crisis requires an excep­
tional response on the part of the international community, the un­
conventional and nondemocratic approach that President Alberto
Fujimori has taken to resolving the crisis—in particular his April
1992 closing down of representative institutions—makes the nature
of that response problematic. Pressuring Fujimori to return to de­
mocratic norms by withdrawing economic support for Peru, for ex­
ample, could lead to an economic collapse that would ultimately play
into the hands of Shining Path. In contrast, the lack of an interna­
tional response sanctions the president’s authoritarian tactics.
Adding to the complexity of the situation is the president’s high level
of domestic political support, which to some extent was institution­
alized through the constituent assembly elections of November 1992
and a referendum on constitutional reform in October 1993.
On 1 and 2 June 1993, the Latin American Program of the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars convened a
major conference on the crisis in Peruvian democracy and the inter­
national response to it. The papers presented, which in revised form
are the basis for this book, as well as the commentary and discussion
Carol Graham is a visiting fellow at the World Bank.
1
INTRODUCTION
at the conference, reflected the dilemmas that the Peruvian situation
poses for the international community. No one “solution” emerged
from the event, and it was widely accepted that President Fujimori’s
position was unlikely to be challenged in the near term. Yet, there
was substantial optimism about the viability of democracy at the
grassroots level and about the gradual strengthening of the formal
democratic opposition to the Fujimori government. There clearly
was agreement that the formal political institutional framework, such
as the party system, is in a process of major transformation. There
was some disagreement about the future strength and nature of Shin­
ing Path, although most observers agreed that Abimael Guzman’s
capture signified an end to the movement as it existed prior to Sep­
tember 1992 and to its ability to challenge the Peruvian state. In ad­
dition, there was disagreement on the viability and sustainability of
the Fujimori government’s economic reform program, although the
basic sentiment was, again, one of cautious optimism.
The Peruvian Crisis:
A Paradox for the International Community
Economic Decline and Its Social Costs
During the 1980s, and in particular under the “heterodox experi­
ment” of the 1985-1990 APRA (American Popular Revolutionary Al­
liance) government, Peru experienced an unprecedented economic
decline that, perhaps even more damaging, was accompanied by a
virtual collapse of state institutions and public service delivery. Per
capita GDP fell by 25 percent from 1988 to 1990 alone, and is now
at 1950s levels. By 1990, meanwhile, real wages had fallen to below
their 1970 levels. Under- and unemployment soared: in 1985, 60 per­
cent of the population of the capital city of Lima were “adequately”
employed; in 1990, less than 10 percent were.1 Not surprisingly, these
trends had severe and detrimental effects on poverty levels. From
1985 to 1990, poverty rates in the capital city rose from 14 percent to
54 percent of the population. Although countrywide data are un­
available, rural poverty levels have traditionally been far worse than
urban ones and are likely to have increased with the steep decline in
GDP of the late 1980s.2 The impact of the August 1990 stabilization
shocks, meanwhile, was regressive: while the middle income deciles
experienced reduced consumption on the order of 53 percent, the
lowest two income deciles—who spend a much higher proportion of
their income on food—experienced declines of over 60 percent.3 By
2